Executive Summary
The Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Shabaab continue to execute small to large scale sporadic attacks across the Somalia and beyond, a move that should worry the Joint Counterterrorism partners in the region. There has been a surge of violent events claimed by militant Islamist groups and recorded in East Africa region. Al-Shabaab’s governance ambitions extend into Kenya and Ethiopia, as the Somalia-based terrorist group claims to seek to unite the Somali ethnic group.
The US Africa Command withdrew from the country last month and repositioned elsewhere in East Africa. While the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) is set to withdraw troops from Somalia in the coming months upon full implementation of the Somali Transition Plan with Somali National Army (SNA) taking charge of security responsibilities in the country.
The effects of troops withdrawing are expected to be felt in Somalia in the coming days and even months citing the situation in the war-torn remains fluid. SNA remains a weak force that has not been able to maintain control of liberated towns, localities and regions and withdrawal of partners troops will significantly overstretch the already weak force which is also under equipped.
Al-Shabaab is demonstrating its ability to target high-level officials and disrupt Somalia’s upcoming presidential elections. On January 31, the militants detonated a suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device at a hotel entrance in the Somali capital, Mogadishu killing at least five people including a retired Somali military officer. In the same zeal, the militants fired several rounds of mortar shells in Dhusamareb, the capital of Galmudug state, on February 2 during an emergency pre-election meeting between the SFG president and federal state leaders.
Al-Shabaab persistent activities continue to be reported from across a number of theaters in Somalia though the militant group persistently has sustained insurgency in central and southern regions. In the past 5 days of February, the Islamist militants recorded a number of attacks all from across regions of Somalia.
Recently Claimed Attacks (Feb 1st – Feb 5th)
- February 1st, Mortar attack wounds several people in central Somalia. Mortar shells rained down on Dhusamareb, Galgadud region after Somali president, prime minister, senior officials arrive for conference.
- February 2nd, Four Ugandan-AMISOM troops have been killed in heavy fighting near the town of Janale in southern Somalia.
- February 2nd, a series of explosions, took place on the main road between Janale and Buufow. Al-Shabaab fighters managed to kill six government soldiers.
- February 2nd, At least 7 people were killed in this confrontation between government forces and Al-Shabaab in Doonka area between Afgooye and Wanlaweyn, Lower Shabelle on Tuesday. Two charcoal truck drivers are among the victims. Three charcoal trucks were reportedly overturned as they attempted to escape the militants.
- On January 2nd, Explosions said to be mortar shells heard at Dhusamareb airport for the second time in less than 24hrs. Somalia Federal leaders including President Farmajo and Puntland, Galmudug, Hirshabelle, Jubaland and South West state leaders were are all in town for talks to end political crises over elections.
- January 3nd, Al-Shabaab attacked a checkpoint in Bal’ad town area last night, making it the third probing attack in Middle Shabelle region. No casualties have been reported.
- January 3rd, suspected probing attacks reported in the vicinities of Jowhar town and Haji Ali of Middle Shabelle. Al-Shabaab militants are believed to be behind these attacks. Haji Ali is a village to the north of Adalle town. Somali troops and AU forces from Burundi operate in the region. No casualties reported.
- January 3rd, At least 4 Ethiopian troops reportedly killed after roadside bomb blast hit their military vehicle while travelling between Hudur and El-Barde towns in Somalia’s Bakool region. 10 ENDF troops killed in IED attacks and ambushes in the same area 3 days ago.
- On January 4th, Al-Shabaab fighters seize Warmahan town, Lower Shabelle, about 80km NW of the capital Mogadishu, after brief gun battle against Somalia govt forces. The militants also attacked a govt checkpoint in the outskirt of the town. At least 3 soldiers dead, weapons seized.
Analysis/Observations
The Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab terrorist group continue to claim responsibility for the attacks through their various online propaganda media channels. Its worrisome that the latest series of attacks confirms that Al-Shabaab Mujahideen Movement increased raids both small and large-scale attacks in Somalia continue to target both civilians and military targets at a time Somalia is preparing for elections.
The increase in violent activity involving Al-Shabaab over the past year (from 1,310 reported events to 1,742) shows the enduring resiliency of arguably Africa’s most entrenched militant Islamist group. In January 2021, the group spiked attacks with over 70 attacks being recorded.
Battles with security forces comprise about two-thirds of the violent activity linked to Al-Shabaab, a larger share than any other theater. However significant civilian casualties continue to be recorded in the region.
Somalia’s security and political conditions are significantly eroding in favor of Al-Shabaab. US Africa Command withdrew troops from Somalia in mid-January only maintaining a limited presence. Notably, Somalia’s political tensions with neighboring Kenya and Ethiopia’s domestic crisis are also disrupting security efforts as both countries support the counter Al-Shabaab fight. These trends are lifting pressure from Al-Qaeda’s East African affiliate at a time when Somalia is preparing for tense elections.
On the other hand, discord between Somalia’s federal and state governments threatens national elections, scheduled for February 8, and is heightening regional tensions. Renewed, engineered violence in Gedo region created opportunities for Al-Shabaab to expand in the Kenyan-Somali border region and in northeastern Kenya’s Mandera County. The Islamist Al-Shabaab exploited the February 2020 violence by resuming attacks in Gedo region’s Bardheere town after months long lull.
Strategic Intelligence (S.I) will continue to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activities in East Africa regions in an effort to provide actionable intelligence towards thwarting and disrupting militant’s activities in the region. Though no major activity has been reported on Kenya, we forecast this month, that Al-Shabaab may spike attacks in Mandera County to expand its reach into northeastern Kenya. Al Shabaab regularly targets civilians and communication infrastructure in Mandera County to disrupt security forces’ response.
The attacks in Dhusamareb also signals Al-Shabaab’s ability to target senior officials during the election season. S.I. forecast that Al-Shabaab militants will continue targeting electoral meetings and political officials leading up to Somalia’s presidential elections scheduled for February 8.
The spike in militant Islamist violence in East Africa underscores shifting security landscape thus Joint CT and COIN actors urged not to relent on mounting concerted military pressure on the Islamists groups in an effort to disrupt and weakening their network besides their plans; thus, already gains made against the militant group will be preserved and sustained denying the group fertile grounds as well as local support to thrive.
