Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Somalia, Tanzania, Mozambique, DR-Congo): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists in Period of 12th November- 19th November 2020

Islamic State’s two provinces in Somalia and Central Africa have continually conducted attacks against civilian and security targets. While the attacks still follow the same MO that each group has carved out in the four countries; Tanzania, Somalia, Mozambique, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, the groups appear to be copying from each other with the shootings, beheadings, and looting being reoccurring.

While the past week shows a lull in attacks in Mozambique, Tanzania, and Somalia, it cannot be ignored as there have been reports that indicate that ISCAP in Mozambique has been warning residents of large-scale attacks by the 20^th November. Additionally, an imminent US troops withdrawal in Somalia could offer up an opportunity for the group to resurge and conduct attacks across different regions and delocalize from Mogadishu. intelligence has also revealed that in Tanzania, the Mozambican insurgents had help from locals in the past attacks who identified attack targets and as such the recent arrests of radicals traveling to Mozambique is a worrying trend.

ISCAP Attacks in Mozambique and DRC (12^th November- 19^th November)

DRC

• 14^th November- 1 person shot dead along Eringeti- Kainama road in Beni-Mbau sector.
• 14^th November- 6 people killed and at least 10 kidnapped in their homes in Bandu village in Mambasa, Ituri province. The chief and some members of his family were among the dead.
• 14^th November- 6 people killed in their homes in Mbao village, Batangi Mbau
• 16^th November- 4 soldiers were injured as they attacked ISCAP terrorists in Kokola, Eringeti in Beni-Mbau.
• 17^th November- 30 people were killed by ISCAP and their bodies were recovered by FARDC soldiers in Kanyabuhiri in Beni.
• 17^th November- 7 civilians were killed in Baeti in Beni-Mbau, the victims were hacked with machetes, several people kidnapped, goats were stolen, and at least 125 houses burned to the ground.   
• 17^th November- 6 people killed in Kokola, Eringeti in Beni-Mbau
• 19^th November- ISCAP attempt to cross was thwarted by the military in Opira village in Beni- Mbau.

MOZAMBIQUE

• 11^th November- ISCAP militants occupied Miteda that is located on the N381 which is the same road that Mueda where the military has a base and Mitabalale.
• 16^th November- security forces reported that Namacande which the capital for Muidumbe was free of insurgents and that there was a heavy military presence in the town.

Observations, Insights, And Analysis

In DRC, the militants appear to have stepped up their attacks and targets with the recent week’s attack recording the killing of a local chief and members of his family as well as military contingent. The UN Mission has been stepping up attacks and while they still face the challenge of local collaboration the mission hopes to dismantle ISCAP encampments in Mabendu, Masesele, and Mabatundu from where the insurgents have been conducting the attacks. There has been a dizzying rise in the prices of basic foodstuffs in the city of Beni. Analysts attribute this situation to the persistence and the upsurge in insecurity in the new areas attacked by the ADF.

In Mozambique, it is notable that the treatment of the residents in Muidumbe is relatively more severe than other locations to the east and along the coast evidenced by the brutal beheadings. This can be explained by the religious and ethnic composition of most of the residents of Muidumbe are majorly Christian and as a jihadist outfit, they seek to eliminate Kafirs and pro-government allies. The pro-government is especially true as the district has recorded a huge number of local militias that have been working with the Mozambican troops as well as against ISCAP where they killed dozens of terrorists in October. The occupation of Miteda can be viewed as a very strategic move on ISCAP’s part as they have cut off the road that has been transporting CT actors to MDP and Palma and as such decapitating operations. Additionally, there was a huge exodus of refugees that left Mueda to Montepuez fearing for their lives despite the significant presence of the military.

President Nyusi on his part has called for all kinds of support that Maputo could receive in fighting the insurgency in the north. the call was especially prompted by the Muidumbe massacre and the stalling in help from Southern African nations. Zimbabwe on its part has been leveraging the crisis in Cabo Delgado to have sanctions relaxed by the US. The country’s ruling party urged US President-Elect Joe Biden to relax the sanctions against Zimbabwe as they can help Mozambique squash out the insurgency. Mozambique and Malawi are expected to meet and discuss the common defence and security agenda and analyze the evolution of bilateral cooperation. The meeting is expected to come up with strategies that could benefit both countries especially as they seek to end illegal immigration which could be exploited by the insurgency to bring in foreign fighters from the Greater East and Central region.

Tanzania’s police said that they had arrested an unspecified number of people suspected of planning to join Islamist militants in neighboring Mozambique. The Islamist insurgency raging in northern Mozambique spilled over the border for the first time in October and carried out attacks on villages in southern Tanzania. The arrested individuals said that they are from as far as Kigoma and Mwanza and join another batch of arrested locals in the border regions who were collaborators in the October attacks. The arrests appear to coincide with the recent ‘unfair’ elections in Tanzania and what appears to be a systemic targeting of Islamic religious leaders.