Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Somalia, Mozambique, DR-Congo): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists in Period of 1st September – 10th September 2020

Islamic State provinces in East and Central Africa appear to be exhibiting a lull in its activities with a fewer number of attacks in the first week of September. The groups continue to show presence despite there being large scale attacks as in previous months and can be directly or indirectly credited to stepped up CT operations in the respective localities.

In Mozambique, while the group is still active it has seemingly refocused its effort to capturing territory, attacking security forces, and fortifying its positions in key districts in Cabo Delgado. while the death toll from their attacks has taken a lull, the number of attacks and nature of the attacks still makes the group a prominent threat seeing as the group is more powerful and capable than it has ever been since its inception. The group has been conducting successful ambushes especially against the military leading to a couple of tactical withdrawals.

In DRC, unlike elsewhere, ISCAP has continued a violent campaign especially against farmers in their fields that picked pace towards the end of August. The group continues to be elusive and taking bolder attacks with a slight change in MO that includes daytime attacks. According to the security agencies, the ADF which has been based in Congo for more than two decades has forged strong links with local political and economic figures and has tapped into networks trafficking mainly timber, taking advantage of corruption within the Congolese security and the local administration. The group currently appears to be the most active of all the Wilayat in the region as the group appears to be spreading to Ituri province and expanding its attacks both in Beni territory which has been its headquarters to neighboring localities.

On the other hand, the Islamic State Somalia has conspicuously remained silent with no activities both at their headquarters in Puntland as well as in the capital where they recently focused their attacks. While the group appears to have to hibernate, it is crucial to note that the group was previously promoted as oversight over ISCAP in Mozambique and DRC by ISIS-Central.

ISCAP Attacks in Mozambique and DRC (1^st September – 08^th September)

DRC

• 02^nd September- 2 farmers were killed and two others were injured in Kanana and Chochora villages in the Rwenzori sector. The two were shot dead in their fields.
• 03^rd September- 3 ISCAP terrorists were killed and several others injured after a deadly clashed between the terror organization and Congolese troops towards the village of Kinziki-Matiba. The soldiers recovered two AK47 guns.
• 04^th September- ISCAP was run out by the military as they attempted an attack on farmers in their fields in near Kakuka and Mbumbuli villages.
• 05^th September- 2 people were killed in the ISCAP attack in the Banande-Kainama group In the Beni-Mbau sector.
• 05^th September- 2 people were killed, cattle stolen and several others kidnapped by ISCAP in a night attack in Kisuwi village in Kainama.
• 07^th September- 4 people were killed inNgandu in the Rwenzori sector; the four were farmers who were killed in their farms.
• 09^th September- at least 30 people were killed, several seriously injured as well as women and children kidnapped by ISCAP militants in Belou and Bulilia in the Chiefdom of Banyali-Tchabi in Irumu, Ituri province. The victims were either beheaded or hacked to death with machetes.
• 09^th September- 3 people, a taximan and two of his clients were shot dead by jihadists along the Mbau-Kamango road in Beni
• 10^th September- 11 people were killed by ISCAP in Mutueyi-Mapendo village.

MOZAMBIQUE

• 01^st September-  ISCAP attacked Quelimane village located north of Mocimboa da Praia (MDP) while nobody was injured, the attack occurred on the road that connects Palma and MDP.
• 04^th September- 3 decapitated bodies were discovered in Ancuabe, Pemba in the same locality where at least 17 youth were kidnapped and believed to have joined ISCAP.
• 05^th September- insurgents attacked Ilha Vamize, in Palma district after arriving on the mainland on boats. The militants burned down at least 3 homes as well as looted solar panels, batteries, and a boat.
• 06^th September- militants attacked Manica village, Macomia, looted animals and food but did not kill anybody.
• 07^th September- ISCAP ambushed security forces in Awasse that led to the withdrawal of the military. While the official death toll and both sides are still unknown, at least two military vehicles were destroyed in the altercation.
• 07^th September- ISCAP attacked Vamisse, located 9km from Afungi Peninsula in Palma district killing one person.
• 08^th September- 2 people were killed following an attack in Nambo village, Macomia; one was beheaded and the other was charred in the burned buildings

INSIGHTS AND ANALYSIS

In Mozambique, the group continues to seek to capture districts in the Cabo Delgado but their efforts continue to be met with significant resistance from the troops deployed in the localities. For instance, Mozambican defense and security forces blocked the advance of ISCAP terrorists into Muidumbe district killing several of them as well as arrested a man described as a ringleader of the terrorists in the district and recovered a huge cache of weapons. Civilians live in fear as the exact number of jihadists and or they gam plan and capture of districts are still elusive and they continue to behead and violently kill innocents. The trend is worrying although the military appears to be gearing to conduct a massive operation to recapture MDP from the jihadists and has led to the displacement of tens of thousands of people.

While the group appears to be refocussing its efforts in attacking the military and security forces, the civilian populace appears to have gained a little trust in the government as they make small steps in fostering cooperation between the two to eliminate the terror threat. In Muidumbe district, the civilians turned in a local ISCAP leader who had returned home from the camps leading to his arrest. The resident-cooperation element is very crucial in ensuring that the militancy is defeated and that intelligence gaps are eradicated especially in the case of abo Delgado where the intelligence in the hierarchy within ISCAP is lacking.

The Mozambican government formally launched the Northern Integrated Development Agency (ADIN) whose sole purpose is to address conflict drivers in Cabo Delgado through non-military means. President Nyusi said that ADIN’s goal is twofold: to provide humanitarian assistance to people affected by conflict and natural disasters in the provinces of Cabo Delgado, Niassa, and Nampula, and to support economic growth in those relatively impoverished northern provinces, with a particular focus on youth employment and growing small businesses.  

ISCAP continues to consolidate territory around the border region between Ituri and North Kivu, carrying out numerous operations in Beni territory. Further reports suggest that the ADF established new bases near Eringeti. Previously, the group appeared to only operate in North Kivu, and as such recent intelligence shows a growth in capacity and numbers that allow the group to expand and create camps and presence across the bigger region. In DRC the attacks are a retaliation for the increased attacks by the government troops and UN peacekeepers that have been pushing the ADF terrorists from their hideouts in the forest. ISCAP in DRC appears to be taking advantage of the numerous armed groups active in North Kivu and Ituri regions to stretch thin the resources of the military and peacekeeper. The same is observed in the nature of their attacks where they ambush soldiers as well as attack civilians with crude weapons like machetes and knives.

Like in Mozambique, the relationship between the Congolese military and the civilians of North Kivu is far from sway as in the past the military attacked the civilian population in their ‘efforts’ to root out the jihadists. Thus, Given the overall surge in violence against civilians, the military offensive has done little to endear the Congolese government to the local population.

It is evident that Mozambique does not have a strategy against terrorism to guide operations in the north and law enforcement agencies lack the global training, equipment, and capacity to proactively detect and prevent acts of terrorism. The new adaptability nature of ISCAP in Mozambique is working in their favor as they can attack and leave while at the same time avoiding being tracked by the government forces and Paramilitary security group DAG. The group continues to undermine the efforts of the security troops by attacking regions that have been liberated.

Residents in North Kivu and Ituri face potent threats to their security and the government’s inability to provide security to communities in these regions, and the outright targeting of civilians by the state’s security sector has eroded the people’s trust in the state. This perceived illegitimacy of the state makes it more difficult for the civilians to cooperate with the military in the counterinsurgency operations and instead choose to face off or rather survive the alternative which is the brutal ISCAP.