Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Somalia, Mozambique, DR-Congo): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists in Period of 1st April – 08th April 2021

ISCAP Attacks in Mozambique and DRC (1^st April – 08^th April 2021)

DRC

• 01^st April– 29 people killed and over 50 more kidnapped in an ISCAP attack in Manyama and Moliso in Beni.
• 01^st April- 2 soldiers killed and their weapons seized by ISCAP militants after an attack on 2 barracks in the Rwenzori sector, Beni
• 04^th April- 20 people kidnapped in Mugwanga village, Irumu where most of the hostages were used to transport the looted goods and supplies back to the base camp in Virunga National Park.
• 04^th April- 12 civilians killed, 2 kidnapped, 5 houses burned, and mass looting in properties in Maelekwe village, Beni
• 04^th April- 4 people were shot dead in Magila village in Beni
• 07^th April- 1 soldier was shot dead, his motorcycle set ablaze and his rifle seized by ISCAP militants in Beni.
• 07^th April- ISCAP attacked Vido village, Kainama burned down the military barracks and kidnapped 1 person.
• 07^th April- ISCAP attacked Kisuhi village, Kainama burned down the military barracks and kidnapped 1 person.
• 07^th April- ISCAP attacked Kahumo village, where they looted for food and supplies
• 07^th April- 3 people killed including two soldiers in Ngadu village in the Rwenzori sector; a motorcycle was set alight.

MOZAMBIQUE

• 01^st April– ISCAP captured and took control over two small boats on Palma Beach and retained control until 2^nd April.
• 01^st April– ISCAP and Mozambican troops clashed on the road connecting Palma and Mocimboa da Praia no casualties were reported on either side.
• 2^nd April– insurgents attacked and took control of Pangane village, Macomia. They arrived in boats and kidnapped 1 person.
• 2^nd April– ISCAP attacked Quitanda village in Palma district
• 2^nd April– clashes were reported between Mozambican troops and ISCAP militants in the Afungi Peninsula where a huge group of refugees had camped after fleeing Palma the previous week.
• 3^rd April– ISCAP conducted recurring attacks on the troops that were clearing Palma following the dayslong attack in late March 2021.

ANALYSIS AND INSIGHTS

ISCAP in Mozambique has been resurging in a way that exhibits the growing threat that is caused by the group. In the recent weeks, the group has shown that the recent lull albeit imposed by the rainy season, also acted as a break for the foot soldiers as well as giving the brass ample time to plan out attacks with high levels of sophistication. The seizure and holding of Palma district and the attack around the LNG project is an indication that the group is seeking to control the province’s national resources and are able to utilize both sea and land as attack launch pads for their attacks.

Palma remains vulnerable and so are neighboring areas as intelligence indicates that the group has started amercing sympathizers and lone operatives in various districts in Cabo Delgado that are yet to record attacks and significant presence. Additionally, intelligence has revealed that the attack in Palma was the first time the group recorded the use of child soldiers since the insurgency broke. While the group has been kidnapping young boys and men, there has not been recorded their presence in operations which reaffirms intelligence from 2020 that revealed that they were training young boys in the encampments.

ISIS-Central claimed responsibility for the Palma attack with photos that were later revealed from the attacks in Mocimboa da Praia an indicator that the group has been collaborating with ISIS’ propaganda wing and the attack was planned beforehand which further enunciates a significant communication channel between Mozambique and Iraq and Syria. While the extent of Central’s involvement is minimal, it cannot be ignored and its significance will be felt in the coming days especially as Ramadhan begins and delayed and or poor strategy in retaliating against ISCAP will be costly and could cost more lives.

Total did a total withdrawal from the project to safeguard the staffers and will only return upon security and stability in Afungi Peninsula. While it’s deemed as an insecurity issue that led to the total withdrawal, strategically it is a lobbying technique to pressure Maputo to ensure security and other terms. The South African Development Community (SADC) has conspicuously remained silent and only approved the deployment of a technical team that is expected to report to SADC in order to allow swift planning for a holistic response that does not only address the combat aspect but also the generational injustices that have fanned the flames of the insurgency.

In DRC, the military arrested a recruiting agent from ISCAP in the border town of Kasindi in Beni territory, North Kivu following a tipoff from hostages recently released by the terror organization. The recruiter identified as Kasereka Mwindi Omari has been actively recruiting for the group and his efforts have reportedly led to the significant growth of the ISCAP’s manpower in Beni territory. His arrest comes as another person named Rashid, a resident in the Boikene district in Beni and a motorcycle taxi driver, was also arrested in Otomabere. Rashid, for his part, confessed to being in the service of the ISCAP for more than six years and he played the role of tracker and supply man.

The arrests are an indicator the group is operating in Ituri, Beni and has been using porous Kasindi border crossing to escape into Uganda where the group has its origins. The group has been expanding significantly in the past months and as such arrests are very fundamental in tracking and dismantling the group as well as map out the leadership and camps especially in Virunga where intelligence indicates a growing presence.

It is important to note that the attacks in the herein referenced period mainly occurred during the Easter weekend a momentous Christian holiday. The attacks are in line with the MO of most ISIS affiliates that exploit both Islamic and Christian holidays to launch attacks against Christians in their areas of operation. Additionally, the group has been deploying psychological warfare where they send scouts to spread rumors of impending attacks causing disarray and lack of trust among the people.

In Beni, dozens were arrested as they demonstrated the insecurity in the region despite there being Congolese soldiers as we as UN peacekeepers who have been unable to quash the insurgency. The outrage comes even as ISCAO continues to amerce weapons by the continued attacks and seizure of weapons from military barracks across Beni. The demonstrators armed with machetes caused havoc and closure of roads and if not addressed could sire a rebel-like group that conducts vigilante attacks against ISCAP adding to the growing number of armed rebels in DRC.

CONCLUSION

• ISCAP has threatened mass attacks in the coming month of Ramadhan in line with the MO of most jihadists groups both in DRC and Mozambique.
• The Ramadhan threat is the greatest yet in both countries as the group has been flexing its capabilities exhibited in the attacks in Palma in Mozambique and Rwenzori and Irumu in DRC.
• In Mozambique, while the allies offer military and technical, and other forms of support to fight ISCAP in CD, Maputo is hesitant as it seeks to accept aid that doesn’t compromise the sovereignty of the resource-rich nation.
• ISIS-central involvement and communication with both arms of ISCAP cannot be underestimated and should be a point to observe in the kind of COIN strategies to be deployed.
• Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, Somalia, and DRC government ought to be on the lookout especially in the coming month of Ramadhan as coordinated or lone attacks are very likely to occur as indicated in chatter and intelligence with the groups’ networks.
• As Ramadhan begins, all security actors ought to be vigilant, use all available assets in ensuring that a would-be bloody Ramadhan is avoided and that the planned attacks are thwarted with minimum casualties.