Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Mozambique And DR-Congo): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists in Period of 1st October– 8th October 2020

The Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP) has been making bold moves especially in Mozambique where the group has been gearing up to celebrate its third anniversary since the first major attacks and the beginning of the current crisis. ISCAP attack Mocimboa da Praia (MDP) on October 5^th in 2017 and intelligence has been indicating the possibility of a major attack to commemorate the attack even as the group expands and further in its attacks in the restive Cabo Delgado. In DRC, the group has also been maintaining an unwavering resolve to expand across North Kivu and spared into Ituri provinces with attacks in the border regions becoming of a recurrent nature.

As the group continues to hold MDP since august, the terror organization has been sending emissaries of fear to Macomia district where the group has announced that it will be taking position in the coming days as it did with MDP. The group has been facing resistance from both the government troops as well as local militias that have been pushing the militants out and away from certain villages. The Dyck Advisory Group (DAG) which has been offering military and especially aerial support to the military has been using choppers to drive out the militants away from villages but while it works it is only a temporary fix seeing as the militants return soon after the departure of the helicopters.

Unlike the past two years, the residents and government forces are on high alert this month as the group gains momentum, and the looming anniversary attack ISCAP is suspected of planning a major attack. This can be traced to the fact that the group is continuously getting out of its shadows as insight and intelligence on part of the leadership has been uncovered meaning the group positioning itself as not only a local militant group but also a regional and global player in the ISIS network of provinces.

ISCAP Attacks in Mozambique and DRC (1^st October– 8^th October 2020)

Mozambique

• 1^st October- ISCAP attacked Mucojo Sede administrative post in Macomia where the forces the military to flee.
• 1^st October- militants attacked Messano, Macomia where the people had fled leaving a few elderly people. The militants gave them $125 and commanded them to leave and to never return.
• 2^nd October- insurgents attacked Magaia village, Muidumbe where they were attacked and driven out by a local militia just like in late September.
• 2^nd October- ISCAP attacked Pangane, Macomia burned the local chief’s residence and took hostages from a local mosque.
• 3^rd October- Terrorists attacked and burned down buildings in Quirimize and Naunde, Macomia
• 3^rd October- several people beheaded in Mucojo, Macomia, houses burned down and people forced out as part of a fear campaign to allow smooth occupation by ISCAP in the coming days.

Democratic Republic of Congo

• 2^nd October- 7 residents killed, 2 injured by ISCAP militants in Mamove village, Beni. Goats, chickens, and other valuables looted from homes.
• 5^th October- 10 residents killed and 3 seriously injured by militants in Mamove, a village in Beni.
• 07^th October- 8 killed in Akwekwe and Nayeyi villages in Beni territory. The victims were stabbed with knives by ISCAP insurgents. The villages are located at the border between Ituri and North Kivu.

Analysis and Insights

In Mozambique, ISCAP has been gearing to celebrate the 3^rd anniversary since the beginning of the Cabo Delgado conflict and has been sending warnings to the residents of Macomia to leave to allow the take over by the group. The group even paid a group of elderly residents who could not afford to leave an equivalent of $125 to desert their homes and never return. Intelligence has in the past two weeks indicated that the group had plans to occupy Macomia as the group did in MDP and have been conducting attacks in neighboring villages to facilitate a smooth takeover. The group announced the intended capture of Macomia and threatened residents prompting them to flee as the attack was projected to coincide with the 3^rd anniversary on October 5^th. The 3^rd-anniversary propaganda has highlighted the elusive nature of the group’s operations and hierarchy with only recent revelations of the two top leaders. The group has in the past few weeks alluded to the group’s growing capability and confidence especially in the attacks that drive out government troops from locations.

As residents flee the ISCAP invasion in Cabo Delgado, the number of people dying and or are affected as both a direct and indirect result of the terror organization is on a rapid rise. In the herein referenced period, an unspecified number of people have died as the number of the boats ferrying IDPs continue to capsize in the ocean. Additionally, there is a risk of communicable diseases such as cholera and diarrhea are on the rise due to lack of power, clean water, and sanitation system both in the villages and the refugee camps.

ISCAP’s logistics have improved in recent months partly being facilitated by the capture of key islands in the province. They use the deserted islands and towns for training and rehearsing of their latest bloody assault tricks. Intelligence also indicates that ISCAP’s continued hold of the islands is giving them an edge over the military who do not have the naval capabilities to fight the militants on the islands as well as army capacity to mount COIN Ops against ISCAP. Transport has gotten a big boost as they are using motorboats stolen from the newly assaulted tourist resorts to move across which has made transport easier and attacks swifter as compared to previously when they had to sail in dhows.

While the 3^rd anniversary has shed a light on the capabilities of ISCAP, the group has also been facing resistance from the military especially in Quirimbas Archipelago, a place where insurgents have expelled fishing families in total in order to occupy islands. The military has been upgrading its CT strategies to include the monitoring of the mobile phones either stolen during attacks or belonging to the militants to track and conduct attacks with high casualties on the enemy’s side. In Muidumbe district, ISCAP has faced resistance mounted by local militia on two occasions and has lost several fighters which is an indicator that not all residents are afraid or support the agenda fostered by the jihadists.