Executive Summary
Al-Qaeda affiliates are strengthening in Africa. In East Africa, Al-Shabaab, Al-Qaeda’s affiliate with its home-base in Somalia has persistently conducted attacks back at home and sporadically targeting Kenya’s frontier regions bordering Somalia.
In the period under review, Al-Shabaab has claimed a number of operations in Somalia and in Kenya (Wajir and Lamu). Significant decline in militant activity in Somalia and in the region noted, contrary to what was expected by counter-terrorism actors, citing it has been the final week of holy month of Ramadhan.
For Kenya, terror activities have decreased due to greater multi-agency action and community engagement. Focusing on security issues to counter violent extremism is a step in the right direction. The government and relevant count terrorism agencies should invest more in non-security approaches to fighting and stemming down violent extremism.
Al-Shabaab’s propaganda media, the Al-Kataib released a video aimed at boosting morale of its fighters to take on operations. The propaganda media wing provided special coverage of the graduation ceremony of a battalion of immigrants from the camp on the name of Sheikh Abu Basir Nasser Al-Wahaishi. The video decoded as hugely a recruitment video, calling on potential members to cross over to Somalia for ‘Hijra’. The video could as well be aimed at repairing relations with the Mujahideen operatives, who many of them were purged because they expressed support for pro-ISIS faction. A number of operatives wanted Al-Shabaab merged with ISIS. Some of them have joined IS-Somalia while many are still with the Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab but are said to be dissatisfied. Nevertheless, Shabaab emir, Ahmed Umar, also known as Abu Ubaidah has been blamed for mistreating quite a number of commanders (especially foreign) over spying suspicion.
The graduation was attended by top and key leaders of the Shabaab movement. Notable figure who graced the graduation included the Amniyaat (intelligence) chief, Mahad Karate and Kenyan-born, Ahmad Iman Ali. The two gave key address to the new unit which comprised of fighters largely from East Africa region( Many spoke fluent Swahili). Notable, Ahmad Iman Ali seemed quite weak and emotional. Probably the time he has been missing, he has been facing disciplinary action from the group, citing there were reports of him trying to leave the terrorist group and probably run his own outfit, same-way, Abdiqadir Mumin decamped Al-Shabaab and now is the head of IS-Somalia operating in northern part of Somalia. Another observation that deduce that Iman Ali could be facing disciplinary action is that he did not have any weapon (e.g. a rifle) unlike Mahad Karate who had an AK47 rifle and wore military attires while he addressed the graduands.
Strategic Intelligence (S.I) forecast that, in near future, the Al-Qaeda’s Al-Shabaab is highly likely expected to face competition in the jihadist circles citing shift in jihadist destinations and appeal. The Islamic State has also penetrated the region (Mozambique and in DR Congo) and that why possibly, Al-Shabaab is struggling to promote and exaggerate the outcomes of its operations to appeal to its followers.
Ahmad Iman Ali 
Amniyaat (Intelligence)Chief: Mahad Karate
AS Recently Claimed Attacks (May 7th – May 14th)
- On May 7th, Suspected Al-Shabaab militants reportedly launched an attack on a security checkpoint in Mogadishu’s Darusalaam district late May 7. Preliminary reports indicated that the attackers assaulted the installation using rocket-propelled grenade launchers (RPG) and automatic weapons. Casualty figures were however unclear.
- On May 9th, A Ministry of Justice official killed in Mogadishu. Local Sources confirm that Al-Shabaab gunmen killed Abdullahi Abdi Mohamed, a member of the ‘justice’ ministry, and then left the scene safely. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the operation shortly after via the group’s propaganda media.
- On May 10th, At least six people, including two senior police officers, were killed and six others injured in a suicide bombing that targeted a police station in Somalia, Mogadishu’s Waberi district.
- On May 10th, Al-Shabaab militants ambush on KDF morning patrol team. The troops were on patrol duty outside a Border Post in Lamu, Lower Eastern Kenya (along border with Somalia). No soldier was wounded. Two enemy combatants were killed as per military source.
- On May 12th, Al-Shabaab terror operatives attempt to destroy a telecommunication mast Afaat center near Tarbaj in Wajir, NEP Kenya (0400HRS EAT). Three militants were killed while one Kenya Police Reservist was killed and two others were wounded during counter operations.
Assessment/Observations & Insights
Its a worrisome trend to highlight that during Eid Al Fitr in perceived Al-Shabaab territories, children were gifted with gun toys as well as other jihadist related materials. If the eradication of Al-Shabaab is not prioritized and expedited what is being seen during Eid Al Fitr celebrations in various regions of Somalia is the indoctrination of a whole generation at a very young age. Something that would prove difficult counter, if not impossible, to reverse in the coming years.
Al-Shabaab distribution of gifts during Eid al-Fitr gifts in towns and locality perceived as under their controls brings to question the capacity of the country’s security forces, in restoring peace and stability ahead of exit of peacekeeping forces. Recent photos posted by the Al-Shabaab portends that it’s in charge of Ba’dweyne town in the Mudug region, Galmadug, a town that had been under the control of the Somali National Army. The town fell to the militants last month according to corresponding open sources reports.
Through proxy media channels, the Jihadists released and promoted photos where Al-Shabaab distributed Eid al-Fitr gifts to over 300 residents as it strives to stamp authority in the country’s central and southern regions.
Al-Shabaab hugely exploits clans’ politics to its advantage. In one of the latest group’s statement, the Al-Qaeda aligned group claimed its commanders met with elders from the local Qubeys clan, a sub-group of the much larger Dir clan, to “welcome the brothers from the clan who entered into the authority of the Islamic Shari’a and whose regions joined the Islamic Wilayats [provinces] under the control of Shabaab. This is propaganda as its well known that Al-Shabaab thrives in intimidation and thus elders have no option but to play to Al-Shabaab’s whims.
Another notable concern is the timely release of Al-Shabaab video on the day of Eid Al Fitr. Al-Shabaab propaganda media wing, Al-Kataib released a video on Eid day showcasing graduation of a new unit of Swahili-speaking fighters. The graduation ceremony was attended by senior Al-Shabaab top leaders including the group’s elusive intelligence chief, Mahad Karate, as well as the Kenyan leader Ahmad Iman Ali who gave keynote address to the graduates.
Their attendance had a great significance to the graduands. Besides boosting morale to fighters of the new unit, the leaders were heard encouraging them in their possible deployments besides calling on other young Muslims to join Al-Shabaab and do Hijra. Basically, this video is aimed for recruitment purpose in East Africa and beyond.
Mixing old and new footages, Al-Shabaab recruitment video tries to draw foreign fighters to Somalia; it’s also shows faces of fighters killed in Somalia regarding them as martyrs to be emulated. The video thus is a tribute to dozens of killed fighters in battle zone mostly from Kenya, Tanzania, Sudan, Yemen, US and UK. While eulogizing the slain fighters, they are depicted in the video as heroes in a strategy aimed at encouraging others to follow in their footsteps.
The video should be a warning to counter-terrorism actors of threat multiplying in the region, besides a wake call to counter-terrorism actors to re-strategize citing this new Swahili unit will highly likely be deployed to conduct attacks in the coming days or weeks to prove to their leaders of their worth. Also, there is a call those who are unable to join Al-Shabaab in Somalia to do lone-wolf style of attacks from wherever they are, thus, lone-wolf threat as woven in the video has also multiplied.
Despite little activity reported on Kenya’s volatile prefectures (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu), the threat by the militant group intent to strike on Kenyan soil remains unchanged. Kenya is one among East Africa’s most vulnerable countries when it comes to violent extremism and radicalization and a target of Al-Shabaab. Both state and non-state actors have taken many measures to prevent these phenomena, particularly among the youth in Kenya’s north-east and coastal regions. Overall, though, interventions to deal with terrorism have remained largely unchanged for a decade.
Conclusion
Today’s terrorism threat landscape is more complex, more dynamic, and more diversified than it was some years ago. Thus, providing timely and actionable intelligence and useful information to the public is critical towards securing/thwarting terrorist related incidents in the region. Production, sharing of intelligence and other actionable information is central towards countering domestic terrorism which now poses most significant and immediate terrorism-related threats in East Africa region and beyond.
Social media and other online forums are increasingly being exploited by terrorist outfits in an effort to spread violent extremist narratives and activity, besides luring potential recruits. Counterterrorism actors urged to collaborate with locals and other players in security industry in an effort to identify and respond to the menace of radicalization that in turn results to the spread of disinformation, conspiracy theories and false narratives fronted on social media and other online platforms.
S.I warns that violent extremists and especially, Al-Shabaab may seek to exploit the easing of COVID19-related restrictions across East Africa region to conduct attacks against a broader range of targets after previous public capacity limits reduced opportunities for lethal attacks. Thus, to encourage increased surveillance both ground and airborne should be scaled-up on the proximal of all military operating bases and all security defense posts to timely pick on enemy signatures besides preempting and thwarting possible surprise attacks.
