Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of March 5th – March 12th, 2021: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

The political impasse over when and how the next Somalian election will be conducted, coupled with the increasing number of attacks from the Islamist terrorist group, Al-Shabaab, has put Somalia on an unpredictable shaky path.

Tensions are still running high among the central federal government, two federal member states, and various opposition groups. Somalian President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed’s mandate ended on February 8 with Al-Shabaab taking advantage of the political unrest and the election impasse to perpetrate more atrocities from across the regions of the war-torn nation.

In the week under review, Al-Shabaab stormed a central prison and allegedly broke out dozens of its members who have been serving jail terms. Al-Shabaab senior leader Mahad Karate celebrated the group’s prison raid in Bosaso, in northern Somalia’s Bari region and announced the group’s intent to release more imprisoned militants in a speech on March 7. This might be an indicator that Al-Shabaab may be losing appeal among the locals from where it has been recruiting for many years and resulting to breaking prisons to replenish its numbers also dying in the operations.

Though the majority of militancy involving Al-Shabaab is in Somalia, some of the most interesting developments in the insurgency appear to be in Kenya frontier counties (Mandera, Wajir and Garissa). Kenya is a key target of the militant group for years since Kenyan troops crossed over to Somalia.  However, its noteworthy, the insurgency civilians associated with Al-Shabaab has been on the decline in Kenya, especially in the country northeastern prefectures. The militants however, interests and intentions to targets patrol teams, defense post and infrastructures in the frontier country remains unchanged and at any opportune time.

The period under review has registered significant reports of Al-Shabaab’s activities. About a dozen of Al-Shabaab’s operations have been recorded from across regions of Somalia. More of repeat attacks have been occurring in the Horn of Africa nation. At least two low-scale attempted raids; one on ASTU recorded in Elram locality, Mandera county, NEP Kenya and the second attempted probe in Konton town in neighboring Wajir County of NEP Kenya.

AS Recently Claimed/Recorded Activities March 5^th – March 12^th

• On March 5^th, At least 7 soldiers killed when Al-Shabaab stormed Bosaso North Somalia jail. Militants took inmates with them. The prisoners included men and women who were Al-Shabaab members and were in jail for over 10 years as per groups military spokesman.
• On March 5^th, At least 20 people were killed by a suicide car bomb (SVBIED) in the Hamarweyne District of Mogadishu. A speeding car exploded at a busy Luul Yemeni restaurant and wounded 40 others as per local sources. The restaurant is frequented by government officials and members of the security forces.
• On March 7^th, At least three SNA soldiers killed, others injured in a roadside blast that occurred in Somalia’s Wajid town, Bakool region. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility of the attack.
• On March 8^th, Al-Shabaab executed five alleged spies in Buale town in southern Somalia’s Middle Jubba region for allegedly spying on behalf of local and foreign security forces.
• On March 9^th, Al-Shabaab claimed attacks on Somali army troops in the vicinity of Afgoye, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces ambushed the militia of the Somali apostate group who were operating in the outskirts of Barire area under Afgoye district and killed one SNA soldier and wounded four others.
• On March 9^th, Al-Shabaab claim mortar shelling in the vicinity of the fortified Halane camp in Mogadishu. The Halane camp is near Aden Adde International Airport hosts several foreign missions in Somalia including US, EU and UN.
• On March 9^th, Kenyan Police officers repulsed an attempt by Al-Shabaab militants to attack a security camp in Elram area, Mandera County, near the Somalia border. The militants had on Tuesday night shot several times towards the local Anti-Stock Theft Unit (ASTU) camp prompting a response from local teams. No casualties were reported as the militants retreated towards Somalia.
• On March 10th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have probed a Kenyan security outpost in Konton town in neighboring Wajir County, NEP Kenya. Al-Shabaab previously claimed to have ambushed police reservists in Wajir County on March 3.
• On March 10th, an explosion, believed to be an improvised explosive device (IED) was reported in the vicinity of the Qoobdooro Stadium in the Karaan District of Mogadishu. The blast killed at least one person and wounded at least two more, including Ministry of Health employees who were on COVID 19 awareness mission.
• On March 10^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility of IED blast that targeted government official in the capital Mogadishu. Initial reports indicate that the blast took place in parts of Huriwa district, targeting a vehicle belonging to the deputy commissioner for Social Affairs of Yaqshid district in Mogadishu. The attack killed four security guards and wounded three others.
• On March 11^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked Somali government troops’ in Mogadishu and Banadir vicinities. Undisclosed casualties reported.
• On March 11^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked AMISOM-Ethiopian troops’ positions in Bay and Bakool regions of Somalia. Undisclosed number of casualties also reported.

Assessment/Observations & Insights

The primary goal of attacking local and foreign troops besides other establishments of interests remains unchanged for the Islamist militants in Somalia and in Kenya.

The geographical areas of contestation remain southern and central regions of Somalia. While the Islamist militants Al-Shabaab has predominantly been targeting the capital Mogadishu, the battle grounds have shifted southwards with Lower Shabelle, Middle Juba and Lower Juba recording increased militant’s activities and interests. Bay and Bakool regions also continue to record repeat attacks targeting Ethiopian troops operating within the mandate of AMISOM.

Its imminent that Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Shabaab will continue to target key leaders in Somalia. In repeat attacks, Al-Shabaab launched mortar targeting a SFG delegation attending electoral talks in central Somalia’s Galmudug State in early February and the same trend has been witnessed when the militants launched mortar shells towards Aden Adde International Airport in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu on March 9, as regional state representatives began arriving at the airport the same day for electoral talks with the Somali Federal Government (SFG).

Jihadist destination is fast shifting to Mozambique and DR Congo. Al-Shabaab maybe competing to appeal to potential wannabe recruits to joining within their fold with other jihadist outfits affiliated to the Islamic State. More prison break outs cannot be ruled out in the coming days, weeks and months by Al-Shabaab in order to get out criminals and inmates that might be willing to fight for them to get back at Somali authorities and security actors.

In northeastern prefectures of Kenya (Mandera, Wajir and Garissa), the Somali-based Islamist Al-Shabaab terrorist movement is activating with local cells to sporadically carryout out operations targeting security camps in an effort to provoke war. Citing the proximity of the region to the Somalia border, the militants have been also crossing and setting bombs on the road to target security agents and vandalizing communication masts.

Kenyan intelligence asset continues to warn of embed local cells within the local communities in NEP counties. Locals urged to collaborate with security assets to thwart besides avert possible attacks in these frontier regions of Kenya. Its almost impossible how these bombs are set on the roads without the knowledge of locals.

Conclusion

Counterterrorism and counterinsurgency (CT and COIN) actors not to relent on the war against the Islamists Al-Shabaab. Surveillance and scouting around defense camps and other security outposts encouraged in order to pick on enemy movements/signatures.

Threat levels are always skewed towards defense positions. The militant group continue to deploy small army units to avoid movement detection. IEDs and ambush raids remain top preferred attack types by the militants.

Sharing of intelligence tip-off with various military intelligence units in Somalia and broader East Africa encouraged. For Kenya, there is an urgent need for sustained after action review (AAR) especially around the security defense posts to avert surprise/ambush raids.

Meanwhile, one factor coming out clearly is that Somalia and Northern Kenya are experiencing a dry spell thus the increased sightings of Al-Shabaab in water points /dams. This means Al Shabaab will likely be establishing makeshift camps proximal to water points in the coming days, or maybe weeks. Therefore, our collection assets- both ground and airborne should be directed in a radius proximal to the water points to pick on enemy signatures.