Executive Summary
The Salafi-jihadi movement, which includes Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, is active across northern, eastern, and western Africa and is expanding and deepening its presence on the continent. In East Africa, Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Shabaab continue to mount attacks in its home-base of Somalia and sporadically staging low-scale attack in Kenya-Somali frontier areas/prefectures.
The militant group which seeks to delegitimize and replace the weak Somali Federal Government as an alternative has been able to penetrate and exploit the corrupt and dysfunction government institutions including security institutions in Mogadishu. The militant’s governance ambitions extend to ethnic Somali populations in Kenya and Ethiopia.
The situation in Somalia remains Shaky citing the current political stalemate. Al-Shabaab is positioned to benefit from eroding security conditions in East Africa. Ethiopia’s destabilization also greatly has regional effects, including weakening counter Al-Shabaab efforts in Somalia. The withdrawal of the US and African Union counterterrorism missions in Somalia will also reduce pressure on Al-Shabaab.
On March 1st, Al-Shabaab media, Al-Kataib released a speech by its leader, Ahmad Umar Abu Ubaidah, calling on followers to participate in jihad and rebel against foreign forces in Somalia. The militant group accused the Somali Federal Government of yielding to foreign influence in a documentary series it released in mid-February.
Ubaidah’s new message, commemorate the late Sayid Mohamed Abdule Hasan. Abu Ubaida compares the group’s war to that of Sayid’s 20th century campaign against European colonialists. Ubaidah speech and recording is seen as an encouragement to the militants’ foot soldiers citing, they are also dying in the battle fronts. He seems to be calling on them not to relent but to continue waging attacks in Somalia and in Kenya.
In the first five days of March, 2021, the Al-Qaeda aligned claimed nearly ten attacks all in Somalia as recorded below.
AS Activities March 1st – March 5th
- On March 1st, Two Al-Shabaab assassin shot and killed a Somali journalist Jamal Farah Adan outside a shop he ran in the northern part of the city of Galkayo, northern Mudug regions of Somalia. Al-Shabaab had issued several threats to the journalist for posting political commentaries on his Facebook account. After the killing, Al-Shabaab announced on its radio station, Radio Andalus, that it had killed Jamal for opposing the group.
- On March 1st, Al-Shabaab militants in claimed responsibility for a series of grenade attacks in the Somalia’s capital Mogadishu targeting Somali army soldiers and NISA members.
- On March 1st, Al-Shabaab attempted probe on AMISOM military bases in Kuday and Abdalle Birole in Lower Juba region of Somalia thwarted. No casualties were reported.
- On March 2nd, Al-Shabaab claim to have attacked AMISOM’s positions in Qoqani town in southern Somalia’s Lower Jubba region. The brief attempted attack was successfully repulsed with enemy casualties being reported.
- On March 2nd, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for attack on an Ethiopian forward operating base in Hudur district in central Somalia’s Bakool region.
- On March 4th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have executed five men of between the ages of 21 and 63, in Jilib, Somalia’s Middle Juba region on allegation of spying.
- On March 4th, On the outskirts of Janale, especially between Bilal, formerly known as Buufow and Janaale of Lower Shabelle, Al-Shabaab fighters claimed to have launched a major offensive against the Somali government forces on routine patrol.
- On March 5th, Al-Shabaab claim to have raided central prison in the port city of Bosaso in Somalia’s Bari province, located 1,388 kilometers (862 miles) from the capital Mogadishu. At least two people were killed and three others wounded in an attack that probably was seen as an attempt to breakout its members from the prison.
Assessment/Observations & Insights
Targeted killings by the Islamist Al-Shabaab are on the increase in Somalia. For example, assassination of the journalist identified as Jamal Farah. Jamal was critical of Al-Shabaab; in a December 28 video, he urged residents of Galkayo to rise against the militant group and claimed that local officials had conspired to help some militants escape justice. Jamal also claimed to have survived an assassination attempt by a member of Al-Shabaab, and urged local residents to assist police in stopping attacks. His stand on Al-Shabaab through commentary and reporting made him wanted on the militant’s list.
Targeted killings and assassination are becoming frequent in the capital Mogadishu. On the last day of February 28, Al-Shabaab landmine explosion in the Somali capital targeted a local district commissioner in the second bomb blast in Mogadishu city on Sunday. A similar roadside explosion in the capital that targeted a senior military official less than five hours earlier, killed three people including two SNA soldiers. The militant group same day killed two men believed to be agents of the National Intelligence Security Agency (NISA).
Al Shabaab doubled attacks in the Somalia’s capital Mogadishu since January amid political unrest while in Kenya, the Al-Qaeda affiliate Al Shabaab continue to exert presence and social control in parts of northeastern prefectures neighboring Somalia. With impunity, Al-Shabaab continue to stage ambushes and notably, the use of IEDs, mortar and landmines by the group has proficiently morphed. Al-Shabaab fighting units are heavily armed and continue to conduct coordinated, multiple attacks, in Somalia and beyond.
In the NEP, Kenya, communication masts to cut off communication have become so common. While security patrol units and defense outposts remain key targets for the Islamists militants, public service vehicles and government institutions are also key targets. The group has been activating local cells, intimidating locals and targeting communication infrastructure with an aim of preventing security forces from responding to attacks on time.
Notably, Al-Shabaab has remained consistent. Persistently maintaining its insurgency in central and southern regions of Somalia. Attacks in the capital Mogadishu continue to increase, on military, government officials and civilian targets.
The militant group ambush capabilities continue to sharpen. The militants are able to morph and adapt accordingly as per weather and geography of particular regions. Regions with bushy, thicket vegetation, the militants are able to conduct ambush assaults on military convoys. On plain terrains for example in Juba regions the fighters are able to form forward bases and outposts besides scouting positions across the plains. This gives them both cover and tactical advantage.
Repeat attacks have been concentrated in the capital Mogadishu, in Bakool region, where AMISOM’s Ethiopian troops have become a frequent target. Change of routine, surveillance and scouting around their operating bases perimeter advised.
Repeat, attempted attacks also noted in Lower Juba region of Somalia (especially, Kuday, Abdalle Birole, Tabta and Kismayo) targeting AMISOM operating bases, patrol units and convoys. Scouting and increased surveillance on contingent area of responsibility (AoR) encouraged in order to pick on enemy movement and signature.
Counterterrorism actors in Somalia to continue mounting concerted pressure on Al-Shabaab positions. The operations to target terror movement’s forward bases in strategic areas specifically Bakool, Bay, Lower Shabelle, Middle and Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle and Gedo regions of Somalia. Operations to be conducted with caution as these regions are highly infested with Al-Shabaab’s IEDs, landmines and remoted controlled explosive devices (RCIEDs).
Forecast
Al-Shabaab is poised to gain or regain territory in Somalia in the next two months as political unrest continues and counterterrorism efforts stall or falter. (As of March 1, 2021). The Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia, Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen terror movement will highly strengthen its defenses, digging in the towns, localities and region in an effort to amass its core fighting units to consolidate recent gains.
