Executive Summary
Al-Qaeda affiliates are strengthening in Africa. In East Africa, Al-Shabaab, Al-Qaeda’s affiliate with its home-base in Somalia, has increased its efforts to conducts back at home and sporadically targeting Kenya’s frontier regions with Somalia.
Al-Shabaab propaganda emphasized its intent external attack ambitions to wage attacks on allies supporting Somalia. The Islamist militant group enjoys de facto control over broad swathes of central and southern Somalia and project power by persistent attacks in the Somali federal capital Mogadishu and regional capitals where it regularly attacks senior officials.
The ultimate goal is to topple the weak, backed Federal Government of Somalia and subsequently instill strict Sharia rule. Al-Shabaab’s governance ambitions extend into Kenya and Ethiopia, as it claims to seek to unite the Somali ethnic group.
Al-Shabaab is attempting to exacerbate Somalia’s political crisis and poised to benefit from eroding security conditions in East Africa. Ethiopia’s destabilization is already having regional effects, including weakening counter–Al-Shabaab efforts inside Somalia, besides, the ongoing Indian Ocean maritime dispute between Kenya and Somalia has escalated tensions between two countries battling a common enemy. On the other hand, the drawing down of the US and African Union counterterrorism missions in Somalia will also reduce pressure on Al-Shabaab and ramifications will be felt in the near future.
Strategic Intelligence (S.I) forecast that, in near future, Al-Shabaab is expected to face competition in the jihadist circles citing shift in jihadist destinations and appeal. The Islamic State has also penetrated the region. Islamic State branches are now active in northern Somalia, the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, and northern Mozambique bordering Tanzania, where its affiliate seized a Mozambican port in August 2020 that it still controls. The Islamic State foothold in Mozambique marks the Salafi-jihadi movement’s expansion into southern Africa. The Islamic State jihadist group has managed to find new footing all across Africa, a continent where economic woes and sleeper pockets of extremism have created deep-seated tension and instability.
AS Recently Claimed Attacks March 12th – March 19th
- On March 13th, the Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Shabaab detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) targeting SNA officers near the Afgoye corridor, Lower Shabelle and a few kilometers to Somalia’s capital Mogadishu. The attack targeted senior military official identified as Colonel Abdirahman Omar. One person was killed and three others were critically wounded.
- On March 14th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have executed four alleged spies reporting to foreign intelligence agencies in El Adde district in southern Somalia’s Gedo region. They were accused of working with US, Ethiopian, Kenyan and Somalia’s NISA agency.
- On March 14th, Al-Shabaab claimed attack on a Somali National Army (SNA) base in Luuq town in Gedo region. Casualties from both sides reported.
- On March 15th, Al-Shabaab claimed to kill US-trained Somali special forces in a suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device attack in Toratorow in southern Somalia’s Lower Shabelle region.
- On March 16th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have captured Mahaday, Middle Shabelle region after clash with HirShabelle administration forces. Mahaday is about 23km from Jowhar town and was one of the areas captured by the foreign forces (Burundian troops). Local sources indicate that the troops retreated.
- On March 18th, Parked VBIED detonated in Waberi district, Mogadishu. Police reports indicate there were no casualties.
Assessment/Observations & Insights
The Horn of Africa nation, The Somali Federal Government (SFG) faces a surge in COVID-19 cases and an ongoing political crisis following delayed elections past the February 8 expiration of President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmajo’s mandate.
Al-Shabaab is banking on the continued political impasse to continue. In the past couple of weeks, Al-Shabaab attempt to delay elections further by targeting key government and security officials in the capital Mogadishu.
The group has intensified it targeted attacks, ambush raids as well as IED assaults in Mogadishu and also on other regions since January as an intent campaign aimed at destabilizing and weakening SFG. The Al-Qaeda affiliate, Al-Shabaab no doubt seeks to delegitimize and replace the weak Somali Federal Government.
The trend attack pattern has remained steady throughout January to March so far. In the period under review, we have seen Al-Shabaab leadership boast on it past recent operations especially the one where the jihadist group stormed a prison in Bosaso, Bari region in northern Somalia’s Puntland State on March 5. Al-Shabaab claimed to release 400 prisoners, including individuals jailed for over 10 years.
The Bosaso prison break in northern Somalia is largely in security lens as part of Al-Shabaab’s broader effort to protect its weapons-smuggling operations besides wooing the released prisoners into the group’s fold. The group’s propaganda media has promoted interviews of prisoners released from Bosaso prison. In the interviews released on March 13, 14 and 15 respectively, Al-Shabaab claims that security officials tortured the prisoners. This is a well calculated move whereby Al-Shabaab seeks to replenish its fighters from a section of the released prisoners besides pitting itself as a just alternative.
Also, another notable event; Al-Shabaab released a video on March 15 of young students presenting on Shari’a law in a legal studies competition in Bay and Bakool regions of southern Somalia. In a skewed attempt aimed at winning potential recruits, the Islamists Al-Shabaab announced its commitment to provide education and school supplies to students in the regions.
The week under review recorded a notable decline in number of attacks as compared to other past weeks. However, its notable of unchanged group’s intent to strike on both military and civilian targets. Steady targets of military and government officials have been noted in the capital Mogadishu. Attack on fortified facilities also remains possible for the groups whose military and intelligence strategies and actual operations are widely seen as well coordinated. Recently, the militant group attacked Halane military base house various foreign missions.
It’s possible in the coming days or weeks, the Islamist Al-Shabaab will attack Halane base in Mogadishu in the coming weeks to exacerbate the SFG’s constitutional crisis. Al-Shabaab also will next attempt a prison raid in Mogadishu, where deteriorating security conditions favor the militant group. Al-Shabaab attempted to raid Mogadishu’s central prison, which reportedly holds the most dangerous of the group’s militants, in August 2020.
The threat by the militant group and intent to strike on Kenyan soil remains unchanged. In the period under review, no major incident has been reported especially on the volatile prefectures bordering Somalia. However, this lull must not be misconstrued as calm being realized but should be an opportunity for counterterrorism actors to remain vigilant by stepping-up on surveillance, scouting and patrolling on their Areas of Responsibility (AoR).
Conclusion
Al-Shabaab remains effective and dangerous force despite constant targeting. The Somalia prominent radical extremist group has suffered immense casualties from multiple targeting campaigns from local and foreign forces, despite concerted CT and COIN operations, the group’s capacity has not been degraded. The militant group has proven its capability of both geographic expansion and formidable lethality even in the face of constant targeting campaigns, demonstrating the group’s resilience and its scope. Nearly in the first quarter of 2021, Al-Shabaab’s activity has consisted of attacks against hard targets, particularly Somali and foreign forces. Nevertheless, civilians have been caught up especially in restaurant and markets raids commonplace in the capital Mogadishu.
