Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of June 5th – June 12th, 2021: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

Harakat al-Shabaab Mujahideen or commonly known as Al-Shabaab continue to consistently and persistently wage attacks in Somalia and sporadically on Kenya’s frontier with the Horn of Africa country. Though the attacks are significantly low-scale, they underline the threat the militant group continues to pose in the Somalia, it home-base and beyond.

Concerted counter-terrorism efforts from AMISOM supporting Somali National Army have significantly stemmed group’s activity in the war-torn nation; however, the group remains active especially in Somalia’s theater controlling almost a fifth of Somali territory.

The week under review, Al-Shabaab upscaled attacks in Somalia recording about 8 attacks and recording at least two attacks in the neighboring country (Kenya). It’s more of repeat attacks in Somalia. The Islamist Al-Shabaab continue to target SNA and AMISOM troops in their bases, convoys especially in the rural areas and small towns in the southern and central parts of the country.

In East Africa, Kenya has become a direct target of the Islamist Al-Shabaab militants. After a lull in group’s activity along the border, Al-Shabaab recorded at least three attacks Kenyan county of Mandera bordering Somalia.  Al-Shabaab continue to target military posts, police outposts, police reservists, and telecommunications infrastructure in northeastern Kenya prefectures, a longtime area of recruitment for the militant group.

AS Activities: 5^th June – 12^th June

• On June 7^th, Somalia’s Al-Shabaab militant group claim to have killed an African Union soldier from Uganda troops following an ambush attack in Lower Shabelle region.
• On June 8^th, Landmine explosion killed a police officer and wounded several others near Somali capital Mogadishu.
• On June 9^th, several people have been killed and as many injured in the Somali capital, Mogadishu, following a series of mortar shells in the vicinity of the president’s residence, as per local sources.
• On June 9^th, Reports of heavy fighting in Daynunay village after Al-Shabaab fighters attack on Somalia military base on the outskirt of Baidoa town, Bay region of Somalia. The militant’s propaganda media claimed that Al-Shabaab fighters killed three SNA soldiers and wounded several others.
• On June 9^th, Al-Shabaab militias operating cells in Mandera, NEP Kenya ambushed two buses and the security escort vehicle between Olla and Sarman villages in northern Mandera. Casualties were reported.
• On June 9^th, Al-Shabaab attempted probe on AMISOM’s troops in Kolbio and Hosingow Lower Juba foiled. No casualties were reported.
• On June 9^th, Al-Shabaab attack AMISOM convoy transporting supplies between Danow and Shalaambood, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. The militants claimed to have destroyed the trucks.
• On June 10^th, Al-Shabaab gunmen storm homes of a senior government officers in Bardhere district of Gedo region, Somalia. The militants claimed responsibility of the attack saying its fighters had targeted homes of the two apostate soldiers.
• On June 12^th, Somali police ambushed in Mogadishu’s Wadajir district. Al-Shabaab claimed to have ambushed the police officers, killing two.
• On June 12^th, Al-Shabaab claim a low-scale attack on security forces on patrol in Kinto village of Mandera, NEP Kenya. No reports of casualties though Al-Shabaab exaggerated to have wounded three security officers.

Assessment/Observations & Insights

The militant continues to adopt asymmetrical warfare tactics, increasingly employing the use of Improved Explosive Devices (IEDs) and Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIEDs). Though in the past few months no deadly IED attacks have been recorded in Somalia and Kenya, the use of explosives remains the group most preferred attack type.

The militant group Al-Shabaab has in in a number attacks demonstrated its operational capabilities by constantly targeting hard targets. The militant group in the period under review has staged a number of low-scale attacks that targeted both local and foreign troops’ convoys as well as their operating bases.

In Somalia, Al-Shabaab’s primary targets remains the army troops, police and the government, which the militant group is fighting to overthrow in an effort to replace it with their own government ruled by Sharia (Islamic law). The Islamist militants continue to hold control of central and in southern Somalia, where its leaders continue to implement a harsh version of Sharia. Sporadic militants continue to be recorded in Middle Shabelle, Hiran, Bay, Gedo, Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle and in the capital Mogadishu.

Kenya, another target of the Islamist Al-Shabaab continue to suffer the brunt the militant’s attacks. In the past few days of June, a number of attacks have been reported in northeastern prefectures including Mandera, Wajir and Garissa. The coastal county of Lamu has also recently recorded a few attacks that targeted on security troops.

The militants are believed to operate cells in the named counties and which are occasionally activated to conduct surprise assaults on security forces as well on civilian targets. Although Al-Shabaab is weakened militarily, financially and politically in Boni enclave as well as in other NEP counties of Kenya, it has been acting to boost its forces through the conscription and recruitment of locals and at times supported by local militias and sympathisers in perpetrating their heinous operations.

Conclusion

Security analysts at Strategic Intelligence (S.I) warn that the increased rate of small attacks as witnessed inside Somalia and in Kenya border prefectures with Somalia may be an attempt to divert attention to regroup. Analysts warn too that these sporadic raids though low-scale maybe intended as a diversion while the militants plan potentially much larger attacks.

As such counterterrorism operators called on to maintain positions in their respective areas of responsibility. Frequent patrols and increased surveillance encouraged in order to timely pick on enemy signatures and subsequently thwart would-be raids.

S.I continues to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activity in the Horn of Africa region and warns of slow but steady militant’s activity that could deal blows to counter-terrorism gains so far made if not decisively countered.