Executive Summary
Harakat al Shabaab al Mujahideen (Al-Shabaab) persistent attacks in Somalia underline the threat the militant group continues to pose in the county and beyond. The militant group continue to target military, government officials and civilians.
Joint troops supporting the weak Federal Government Forces (SNA) continue to battle the Islamist militants that control substantial swathes of central and southern Somalia. The military campaign has seen the militant group suffer huge blows over the years but has not succeeded in completely defeating and dismantling the terror group neither has it significantly diminished its ability to strike.
Al-Shabaab’s attacks targeting a military base in Middle Shabelle where a number of government soldiers were killed including their commander is the latest indication of the Islamist militant group’s growing confidence in its battle for control of the war-torn country in the Horn of Africa.
The militant group have also taken advantage of the COVID-19 grip coupled by the political crisis to further destabilize the country with regular attacks.
In barely one week, Al-Shabaab has conducted at least five attacks from across the regions of Somalia. No incident has been recorded for Kenya another target of the Islamist militants. The first week of June has been began on a low tempo as compared to the last week of May where over a dozen attacks were recorded for Somalia.
AS Activities: 1st June – 5th June
- On June 2nd, Al-Shabaab conducted a grenade attack on civilians at the Somali Star restaurant in downtown Kismayo, Lower Juba. Severely injured civilians were taken to Kismayo hospital.
- On June 2nd, Al-Shabaab assassins gunned down two members of Somalia’s intelligence agency (NISA) in the capital Mogadishu.
- On June 3rd, Major, Mohamed Abdiwahid, the Commander the 6th battalion of Somalia’s Turkish-trained special forces (Gorgor) was killed in a battle between SNA and terrorist group of Al-Shabab at Jalable village in Middle Shabelle region. Al-Shabaab propaganda media reported to have killed 18 government soldiers.
- On June 4th, Al-Shabaab claim attack on SNA military base in Warise and on the outskirts of Mahaday, Middle Shabelle region of Somalia. Four government soldiers killed in the mortar assault by the Al-Qaeda affiliated militants.
- On June 5th, At least two people were killed and many more wounded when a suicide bomber targeted military personnel in the Somalia’s capital Mogadishu. Local sources reported that the suicide bomber struck near a busy minibus station as he targeted troops preparing to cross a checkpoint fortified with concrete blocks and manned by security officers.
Assessment/Observations & Insights
Al-Shabaab style of attack hasn’t changed. Its war is largely asymmetrical, where it also relies on hit and run attacks, assassinations, and grenade attacks.
Its weapons of choice have ranged from improvised explosive devices (IED) and vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs), to deploying suicide bombers to target security forces, public installations, and government officials.
Generally, most of the recent attacks can be described as low intensity, but persistent, disruptive, and daring. For example, the ones that have been targeting military bases and military chiefs.
Like the rest of the world, struggling with COVID-19 challenges, in Somalia, the cases have been steady. The viral disease has not affected Al-Shabaab’s terrorist activities, despite the government launching anti-COVID-19 social distancing measures in March.
While dispatching suicide bombers and assassins, and its leaders have rejected containment and social distancing measures, telling the people to continue attending crowded mosques. It has also kept open Islamic schools and institutions in the area.
The Islamist fighters have sustained their operations, increasingly targeting civilians, government officials, and security forces. The persistent attacks have further strained and frustrated the military response being carried out by the Somali National Army (SNA), which is backed by the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) troops) besides other foreign troops.
United Kingdom has sent about 250 troop in Somalia after US withdrawal of its troops and maintaining limited presence. UK has began training 600 Somalia soldiers in Baidoa, Bay region of Somalia, in an effort to boost their military skills in dealing with already morphed Al-Shabaab militant group.
Conclusion
Today’s terrorism threat landscape is more complex, more dynamic, and more diversified than it was some years ago. As such, counterterrorism operators in East Africa region and especially those countering the Islamist insurgents in Somalia need to rethink their strategies citing Al-Shabaab military and intelligence strategies have sharpened over the years. Timely intelligence gathering and sharing is pivotal towards securing/thwarting terrorist related incidents in the region.
Threat skewed towards military operating bases and their convoys. Targeted attacks and assassinations remain unchanged towards government officials and towards civilians perceived as spies by the militant group.
Social media and other online forums are increasingly being exploited by terrorist outfits in an effort to spread violent extremist narratives and activity, besides luring potential recruits. Counterterrorism actors urged to collaborate with locals and other players in security industry in an effort to identify and respond to the menace of radicalization that in turn results to the spread of disinformation, conspiracy theories and false narratives fronted on social media and other online platforms.
Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continue to monitor and track the jihadist activities in East Africa and beyond. S.I.warns that violent extremists and especially, Al-Shabaab may seek to exploit the easing of COVID-19 related restrictions across East Africa region to mount operations against broader targets. Counterterrorism operatord urged to upscale surveillance on the ground as well as airborne especially on the proximity of military operating bases and other security defense posts in an effort to pick on enemy movements; besides thwarting and preempting attacks.
