Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab Activity in East Africa
The Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab operating in East Africa has concentrated it attacks in it home-base of Somalia and in NEP Kenya.
In Somalia, Al-Shabaab in the past one week has maintained active presence especially in central and southern regions of Somalia. The militant group continue to stage attacks in these and other regions of Somalia demonstrating ability to attack neighboring countries and international targets at the same time.
Notably, in this week’s events, the Somali extremists, Al-Shabaab Mujahideen concentrated it attacks on Somali security forces, their bases, AMISOM FOBs and convoys in a number of theaters in Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle,Lower Shabelle, Gedo, Bay and Hiran, regions of Somalia. There has been a spike in number of executions and targeted assassinations in Mogadishu and its environs and also in Galgadud regions of Somalia.
Al-Shabaab has claimed dozen attacks with notable success ratios. The Al-Qaeda branch through its pro-websites and media has spread photos, infographics and videos of some of their successful raids against SNA and AMISOM. This week, Al-Shabaab has recorded at least 15 attacks in Somalia. In the neighboring country; Kenya, Al-Shabaab has recorded at least one attack in NEP, Garissa county. Last week, militant group claimed at least three attacks in the border county of Mandera.
Recently Claimed Attacks (June 19th – June 23rd)
- June 19. Al-Shabaab gunmen shot dead a government soldier and took his gun in Heliwa district of Mogadishu.
- June 19. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility of its fighters assassinating a government soldier near Bakara market in Hodan district of Mogadishu.
- June 20. The Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed four people and injuring 5 others after two successive IED explosions in Wanlaweyn, Lower Shabelle. Local reports indicate that the IED blasts targeted residence of a SNA military commander. After crowd gathered at the scene, a 2nd explosion occurred injuring at least 20 civilians.
- June 20. Two people were killed and 3 others injured following an Al-Shabaab grenade assault that targeted a police station in Galgadud region of central Somalia.
- June 21. At least 8 Turkish-trained Somali soldiers were killed in an ambush attack in the Janale district of Lower Shabelle. 15 others were reportedly injured in the close quarter battle.
- June 21. Al-Shabaab assassins shot dead a Somali police officer identified as Ali Rage inside his house in Dharkanley district of Mogadishu.
- June 21. Al-Shabaab claimed massive IED explosion in Bacadweyn town in north-central Mudug, about 170km southeast Galkayo. The Attack began with a SVBIED that rammed on entrance of SNA base followed by Al-Shabaab fighters with gun fire. At least 2 people reportedly killed in the attack that targeted soldiers from 21st Division.
- June 22. Al-Shabaab fighters attacked an Ethiopian military base in Halgan town, Hiran region of Central Somalia. Al-Shabaab fighters launched mortar shells on the military base operated by ENDF troops with casualties being reported from both sides.
- June 23. At around 0130 hrs, 10 Al-Shabaab fighters armed with AK47 rifles burnt 4 shops in Garissa’s Sangole centre, located about 10kms East of Ijara BTS mast (MOYIT). After the incident, the militants fled through the nearby thickets.
- June 23. Al-Shabaab conducted a suicide bombing outside TurkSom military Facility in the capital Mogadishu. The Tuesday morning attack saw at least three people including the suicide bomber killed. Others included, two civilians who were killed in the blast and one cadet was slightly wounded. However, Al-Shabaab media exaggerated the claim saying its fighters killed 7 government officers and injuring 14 others.
- June 24. Al-Shabaab claimed attack on AMISOM’s Ugandan troops in Janale, Lower Shabelle in a suicide bombing followed by intense gun battle.
- June 24. Al-Shabaab claimed a suicide attack on military base outside Balcad district. Heavy fighting reported after Al-Shabaab targeted an army base in the Middle Shabelle region operated by AMISOM’s Ethiopian troops. The militants seized the weapons, including AK47 rifles.
- June 25. A Somali Police officer survived IED explosion in Daynile district of Mogadishu, claimed by the Islamists Al-Shabaab.
- June 25. Al-Shabaab probed both SNA camp and Somali Police Station in Kolbio town in Lower Juba. A small unit of about 7 Al-Shabaab fighters armed with PKMs and AK47 probed SNA-FOB camp from direction E, about 600m from the camp. The fighters had positioned themselves between the town and the camp.
- June 25. Al-Shabaab publicly beheaded Ali Hussein Jimale and Abdi Abdulle Ahmed. Al-Shabaab publicly paraded two young boys in El-bur district (Ceelbuur) in Galgadud region and beheaded them on claims of rape and stealing.
CT-Operations Mounting Pressure
Counterterrorism operations in Somalia continue to mount pressure on the Al-Shabaab, limiting the group’s movements and ability to conduct large-scale attacks.
This week, though the group has spiked attacks from across regions of Somalia as indicated in the recorded claims, the attacks have been notably low-scale assaults because of joint CT-operations against the group.
AMISOM troops continue to support the Federal Government’s forces in degrading Al-Shabaab and currently its facing some pressure from Somali Special Forces (Danab) supported by allied troops in Middle Juba region of Somalia.
Military intelligence assets report confirms of the killing of a senior Al-Shabaab commander from Nepal in charge of training, after Danab forces swept areas of Buurgaduud, Waabo, Salagle and Sakoow. The name of the senior Al-Shabaab commander killed has been identified as Ashraf Azmi Abu Hamdan (Military Intelligence Sources).
In another joint raid, at least six Al-Shabaab operatives were killed, and four villages liberated in Lower Juba. Corresponding local reports indicate that, liberated villages included Hawaljiri, Bernasey, yaq-Bishaar and Osbo and several fighters killed in the operation.
The mop-up military operations follow increased militant activity in southern regions of Somalia which include; Gedo, Lower Shabelle, Lower Juba and Middle Juba regions. The terror operatives have increased assaults on SNA and allied troops assets in these regions persistently.
In another separate operation, joint troops drawn from Somali army and AMISOM’s Djiboutian troops successfully recaptured Luqa Jelow location, near Beledweyne town from the extremist Al-Shabaab following a security operation. On this note, the Al-Qaeda aligned militants possibly will go back on the drawing board on how to go about their operations in these regions.
Assessment and Observations
There has been notable surge in militant’s executions this week. Increased attacks on Ethiopian forces over Geopolitics have been recorded. This is an indicator of Al-Shabaab appetite to demonstrate salience in regional Geopolitics and security, besides intent to weaken Ethiopian influence on Somalia’s Security and Politics. Ethiopia has increased troops in Somalia. In February, over 1,000 ENDF- non-AMISOM troops closed over into Somalia through Gedo region. The troops have become a constant target of the Al-Shabaab in Gedo, Bay and Bakool regions.
The increased Al-Shabaab attacks against hard targets are a pointer that the fighting capability of the militant group has not been degraded in those locations.
With the anticipated exit of AMISOM from Somalia, a weak FGS army and projected elections, the enemy will likely sustain more attacks. The recent mutiny by FGS soldiers over salaries is a pointer to a disjointed and demoralized force with weak command and control among the rank and file. The USA govt had stopped funding SNA salaries citing corruption and financial impropriety.
Mortar shelling especially when targeting military bases (FOBs) and other fortified compounds is also notable type of attack by the militants. Though recent mortar attacks have been low-scale, they could morph into a threat when fired by experts.
Targeted assassinations reported on Somali government officials and civilians continue to be recorded. The assassinations have been witnessed in the capital Mogadishu and in Benadir regions. Its notable, the militant in a couple of past, recent weeks has been unable to conduct spectacular attacks as it has been a norm in previous months and years. Some beheading (executions) also reported in Galgadud region of Somalia.
It is observed that the militants continue to execute Somalis on claims of theft or rape in an attempt of portraying as just and an alternative authority of the Somali populous. Al-Shabaab last week carried executions and amputations in Galhareri town, El-Buur district of Galgadud. These executions and amputations are done publicly, as a strategy by militants to instill fear on the locals to refrain from collaborating with security assets.
Al-Shabaab continue to deploy the use of suicide bombing, IEDs, SVBIEDs and RCIED and then reinforce it with an ambush gunfire attack to maximize casualties. The militant group is keen on staging IED attacks, ambushes on road majorly used by the troops, meaning the militants possibly could have combed and learnt on the troops’ routines.
Kenya’s northeastern prefectures have witnessed a period of calmness with no major cases of militant’s activity, an indication of enhanced counterterrorism approach by the concerned security actors. This notwithstanding is a wake-up called for the CT-actors to remain alert and vigilant as the militants maybe possibly planning a surprise raid to make headlines.
Analysis
On the above sampled claims, Al-Shabaab continue to demonstrate its ability to conduct multiple direct attacks targeting both AMISOM and SNA beside conducting targeted assassinations on key figures.
That, despite being targeted in a number of precision airstrikes from the U.S., the militant group continues to defy this pressure, an indicator of adaptation to conventional warfare strategies and a strategy of resilience as per the group’s doctrine. Concerted joint counter-insurgency operations (COIN) have yielded considerable results but have not succeeded in completely defeating and dismantling the terror group, neither have they significantly diminished group’s ability to strike.
According to the recorded events, Al-Shabaab has increased attacks, deploying suicide missions on military bases, both on bases belonging to government forces and foreign troops. Ethiopian bases and convoys have become frequent target of the Islamists Al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab also a targeted TurkSom military camp which was built in 2017, located in Jazeera area, south of Mogadishu. The camp provides training to Somali soldiers fighting against Al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab last week also targeted U.S.-SNA operated base in Baledogle, Lower Shabelle., demonstrating its ability to attack on fortified facilities.
However, assessment reports by security experts at Strategic Intelligence (S.I) have shown Al-Shabab’s territorial control is fluid. The Al-Shabaab militant group typically leaves an area ahead of many offensives targeting their bases and later comes back and recaptures the same territories. Additionally, Somali security forces have also been unable to maintain control of these territories, an indicator the countries security assets are not yet prepared to take over the mantle of Somalia’s security in the event foreign troops exits.
To elaborate its successes, the group continue to keep track of its raids by publishing and spreading of infographics photos and videos of notable raids with casualties in their pro-websites and media. This a modern psychological warfare strategy aimed at demoralizing military assets fighting them in Somalia besides. The strategy is also aimed at boosting the morale for their foot soldiers besides attracting potential jihadists into their fold.
The Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia, Harakat Shabaab Mujahideen has continued to demonstrate its capability to adapt and deploy new attack methods in Somalia. The ability to plan targeted assassinations, attacks on heavily fortified facilities such as military bases and capability to implement such plans besides employ geography, time, and consistency as aspects of warfare are indicators that the militant group has morphed or changed its strategy from a military and intelligence perspective. Regional CT-actors needs an urgent counter-strategy to avert the already piling surge.
