Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of July 1st – July 10th

Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa Region.

The Al-Qaeda aligned Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen (HSM) operating in East Africa has concentrated it attacks in it home-base of Somalia and in Kenya’s northeastern prefectures.

In Somalia, in the past one week, the Islamist’s Al-Shabaab militant group has maintained active presence especially in central and southern regions of Somalia. The militant group continue to stage attacks in these and other regions of Somalia demonstrating ability to stage attacks beyond Somalia borders.

Notably, in this week’s recorded events, the Somali-based extremists, Al-Shabaab Mujahideen concentrated it attacks on Somali security forces, their bases, AMISOM FOBs and convoys in a number of theaters in Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Gedo, Bay and in the capital, Mogadishu.

Al-Shabaab has claimed over dozen attacks with notable success ratios. The Al-Qaeda branch through its pro-websites and media has claimed responsibility of these raids against government officials, SNA, AMISOM and other facilities though their fatality figures are exaggerated as warfare strategy by the militant group. This week, Al-Shabaab has recorded at least 15 attacks in Somalia. In the neighboring country; Kenya, Al-Shabaab has recorded at least three attack in NEP counties of Kenya. One attack (abduction) was done in Mandera (Dabacity-Elwak) and the others in Fafi and Korakora areas of Garissa.

Recently Claimed Attacks (July 1^st – July 10^th)

1. On July 1^st, Al-Shabaab militants claimed to have shot and killed a security and intelligence officer in Baidoa town. The slain individual was identified as Sharif Mokhtar Jiis and was an advocate for the people with disabilities in Bay region of Somalia. Al-Shabaab accused Jiis of spying on behalf of NISA.
2. On July 3^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed a mortar attack on KDF-AMISOM troops. The militant group claimed to have attacked the KDF Abdalla Birole military base, outside Kismayo town in Lower Juba.
3. On July 4^th, Al-Shabaab militants conducted a suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device attack in Hamar Jajab district of Somalia’s capital Mogadishu. Somali officials reported that the attack targeted a tax collection center. The IED explosion killed the attacker and injured at least five civilians.
4. On July 4^th, Al-Shabaab militant group claimed responsibility for an IED explosion at Huriwaa Livestock Market in Huriwaa district of Mogadishu that targeted Ethiopian-AMISOM’s troops. An armored vehicle was destroyed in the explosion.
5. On July 4^th, A remote controlled improvised explosive device (RCIED) that was hidden in a restaurant close to a checkpoint, and regularly frequented by security forces in western city of Baidoa was detonated killing at least five people; two police officers and three civilians.
6. On July 4^th, Al-Shabaab claimed an attack on Kenyan security outpost in Fafi area, near Garissa town NEP Kenya. Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed on officer.
7. On July 5^th, Al-Shabaab improvised explosive device (IED) detonated in Baidoa city in south-central Somalia’s Bay region. The explosion that was targeted at government security checkpoint killed at least five civilians and injured at least eight others.
9. On July 5^th, At least two children and their mother were wounded in a deadly mortar attack that was claimed by Al-Shabaab on a residential area in Janale town of Lower Shabelle, about 94km from capital Mogadishu.
10. On July 5^th, A regional Somali lawmaker was abducted and killed by Al-Shabaab militants, near Bal’ad town, about 30 kilometers north of capital Mogadishu. The Hirshabelle lawmaker identified as Mohamed Mohamud Siyad was travelling in his vehicle from Jowhar town to the capital Mogadishu when he was abducted and later killed.
11. On July 6^th, SNA forces repulsed an Al-Shabaab attack on a SNA base near Awdinle town in Bay region killing five Al-Shabaab militants. The militants attempted to overrun a military base manned by Somali National Army but were repelled.
12. On July 6^th, Al-Shabaab claim a roadside bomb attack on Burundian convoy, on the road between Jowhar and Bal’ad town. The militants targeted Burundian-AMISOM’s convoy that was from Mogadishu for supplies. Three soldiers were killed and some trucks destroyed in the explosion.
13. On July 6^th, Four AMISOM soldiers killed in an attack in Lower Shabelle region. Al-Qaeda affiliated claimed a mortar attack on AMISOM base manned by Ugandan troops in Elasha Biyaha, Lower Shabelle, about 15 kilometers southwest of the capital Mogadishu. Casualties reported and an armored personnel vehicle was destroyed.
14. On July 7^th, Kenyan security agencies foiled an Al-Shabaab kidnapping incident outside Dabacity area of Elwak, Mandera border with Somalia. Initial reports showed that Al-Shabaab had hijacked a civilian Toyota Landcruiser pickup with eight occupants but were intercepted as they drove towards Somalia. No casualties reported as the militants fled into the thickets.
15. On July 8^th, Al-Shabaab claimed a roadside improvised explosive device (IED) detonated in Mogadishu’s Hodan district. Initial reports indicate that the IED explosion which targeted Somali police vehicles killed at least 2 police officers and injured a number of others.
16. On July 8^th, at around 1445hrs, Al-Shabaab militants probed Hoosingo-FOB, Lower Juba from general north direction. No casualties reported.
17. On July 8^th, at around 2145hrs, Al-Shabaab militants probed Kuday of Lower Juba from general direction of West. No casualties were reported from the incident.
18. On July 9^th, at least 20 heavily armed Al-Shabaab militants staged an attack at Korakora in Garissa county NEP Kenya. The militants destroyed three police houses but they did not manage to destroy Safaricom telecommunication mast.

Assessment/Observations

Its notable, Al-Shabaab activity in Somalia are not reducing but are steadily surging. Mogadishu and Bay have witnessed increased militant activity targeting security forces. Also, in the two regions, its notable increased resumption of IEDs and suicide missions as preferred attack types. The IED attacks are in turn followed by gunfire to maximize fatalities.

In Lower and Juba region, the Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab is keen on attacking AMISOM military bases. This week, Al-Shabaab has conducted at least six attacks on AMISOM bases and their convoys. Kenyan, Ugandan and Burundian operating bases have become a constant target of Al-Shabaab.

Though CT-actors have also increased pressure on the militant group, the Somali National Army (SNA) has not been able to hold the terrain captured from al Shabaab in joint operations with African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces completely, thus these regions remain fluid.

Al-Shabaab holds swathes of territory surrounding the capital, Mogadishu, from which it coordinates attacks targeting the Somali Federal Government. Increased counterterrorism pressure may have reduced the overall volume of attacks in Mogadishu, but the city is not yet secure.

Key Al-Shabaab’s sanctuaries persist in central Somalia, especially in Lower and Middle Shabelle regions, and in southern Somalia in Bay, Gedo, and Middle and Lower Jubba regions where increased enemy activities continue to be recorded.

Al-Shabaab is also able to project force from Somalia and safe havens along the eastern border with Kenya to attack Kenyan security forces and soft targets in Kenya’s Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Lamu counties. Increased Al-Shabaab movements in northeastern prefectures have recently been reported. Initial FIT’s reports warn that due to the dry weather in Somalia, Al-Shabaab presence closer to Kenyan border with Somalia is on the rise. Its possible the militant’s will establish makeshift camps at close proximities with water-wells.

Conclusion

Although al-Shabaab is thought to be in disarray due to the onslaught by AMISOM troops and other forces, the attacks indicate that it can still coordinate attacks and produce reliable intelligence on military movements. These developments demonstrate that the group’s insurgency in southern Somalia is more resilient and flexible than earlier anticipated, having shifted into a regional force, and exporting its terror activities to neighboring Kenya.

The militants have been targeting communication masts, schools and residential houses rented by communities that are not native to the volatile northeastern Kenyan counties of Garissa, Mandera and Wajir.

Al-Shabaab militants usually destroy telecommunication masts to disrupt police response and communication in the area before they could inflict harm on the locals. Kenya security actors should be on a high alert after foiling three Al-Shabaab attacks in one week.

The Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia, Harakat Shabaab Mujahideen has continued to demonstrate its capability to adapt and deploy different attack types successfully.  The ability to plan targeted assassinations, VBIED attacks on checkpoints, mortar shelling and ambush raids on military bases coupled with capabilities to implement such plans besides employ geography, time, and consistency as aspects of warfare are indicators of group’s flexibility in terms of military and intelligence perspective; and a wake up call to relevant CT-actors to come up with an urgent counter-insurgency (COIN) strategy to avert the already budding surge.