Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of January 7th – January 14th, 2022: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

The Al-Qaeda associated militant group, Harakat al Shabaab al Mujahideen (HSM) commonly known as Al-Shabaab continue to wage small to large scale attacks in East Africa, especially in Kenya and Somalia. Surge in attacks have been noted in the first two weeks of January 2022 primarily targeting military positions (convoys, patrol units and FOBs), government officials besides civilian targets.

The militant group has upscaled attacks from across regions of Somalia targeting AMISOM troops, SNA troops as well as civilians. Their operating bases as well as supply convoys have been targeted in various prefectures of central and southern Somalia. Threat for Kenyan frontier counties have been high in the past two weeks of January. The Islamist militant group, the operatives have claimed a number attacks targeting the coastal county of Lamu and others in Mandera, NEP Kenya.

Its imminent that the Al-Qaeda branch in East Africa intent to wage in the region remains the ultimate goal. In the first week of January the militants claimed at least 9 attacks and in the second week, at least 14 attacks have been recorded. This is a slight increase in attacks.

Counterterrorism operators will need to make hard targets harder to strike by re-inventing on strategies that will mostly involve locals, human intelligence (HUMINT) driven in an effort to thwart or foil attacks.

In the week under review, the militant group has claimed credit for about ten attacks for Somalia and at least four low-scale attacks in Kenya. Analysts at Strategic Intelligence (S.I) warns that the attack trend is expected to rise in the coming days as such all concerned counterterrorism assets to remain on high alert.

AS Recently Claimed Attacks:

Week 1: January 1^st – January 7^th

• On January 1^st, Al-Shabaab fighters claimed to have killed and injured several Ethiopian soldiers following massive roadside bomb blast that hit and destroyed their military truck at Jawiil village in Somalia’s Hiran region.
• On January 1^st, Al-Shabaab claimed to have fired several shells targeting a defense base located in the vicinity of Jabi village in the area of Rhaamu in Kenya’s Mandera county. No details on casualties were provided.
• On January 2^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed an IED attack in the outskirt of Dhusamareb. Initial reports indicate several people including government soldiers were wounded. Al-Shabaab claimed credit for the attack via their affiliated Radio Andalus.
• On January 2^nd, one person killed by suicide car bomb blast in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu.  Preliminary reports indicate that at least one person was killed and two others injured by a suicide car bomb in Howlwadaag district in Mogadishu claimed by Al-Shabaab.
• On January 3^rd, at least six people killed, houses burnt in suspected Al-Shabaab attack in in Widhu, Majembeni area in Lamu county of Kenya.
• On January 2^nd, A civilian killed in Hindi, about 60km away from Witu in another domestic terrorism incident in Lamu county of Kenya. Nassir Mohammed a resident of Kiunga reportedly was killed by IED planted by Al-Shabaab’s local cell.
• On January 3^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed to have fired several mortar shells on an AMISOM FOB operated by Ethiopian troops in Wajid, Bakool region of Somalia. No casualties were reported.
• On January 3^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed to have assassinated a South West administration official in the general vicinity of Burhakaba district, Bay region of Somalia.
• On January 4^th, A civilian killed in Hindi, about 60km away from Witu in another domestic terrorism incident in Lamu county of Kenya. Nassir Mohammed a resident of Kiunga reportedly was killed by IED planted by Al-Shabaab’s local cell.

Week 2: January 7^th – January 14^th

• On January 7^th, Al-Shabaab militants claimed responsibility for attack on US-trained Danab forces in Somalia. Local reports indicate that at least two members of SNA’s Danab brigade were killed and nine others wounded after a bomb blast targeted a military convoy in Dhusumareb, the regional administrative capital of Galmadug state.
• On January 7^th, Al-Shabaab attack, destroy communication mast in Mandera. Gunmen believed to be Al-Shabaab operatives attacked and destroyed a communication mast in Omar Jilo, Mandera NEP Kenya. No casualties were reported from this incident.
• On January 7^th, Al-Shabaab to have conducted an attack in Milihoi, Lamu prefecture of Kenya. The militants that their target was a GSU camp in the area.
• On January 7^th, Al Shabaab militants tried to seize Bahdo village in northeastern Galgudud region of central Somalia. The militants were successfully repelled by local fighters and state forces killing at least 20 militants.
• On January 9^th, Al-Shabaab clashed with SNA and Galmudug regional troops in the general vicinity of at Adakibir, about 60 kilometers East of Adado, Galgadud region in central Somalia. At least four SNA soldiers including a commander killed in the fight.
• On January 10^th, Somali Gorgor Forces clashed with a group of Al-Shabaab militants near Tawakal village in the Lower Shabelle region of southern Somalia. Somalia military officials claimed the operation killed at least 25 Al-Shabaab fighters. Al-Shabaab militants were reportedly grouping to attack Barire town, 2.5 miles southeast of Tawakal.
• On January 11^th, Al-Shabaab attacks an army base on the outskirts of the capital Mogadishu killing at least 3 soldiers on Tuesday and injuring several others.
• On January 11^th, Al-Shabaab militants ambushed a Kenyan police vehicle between Liboi and Kulan in Garissa County, eastern Kenya. The attackers claimed to have caused casualties besides seizing AK47 rifles and ammunition.
• On January 12^th, at least 10 people, including 5 soldiers, were killed in a Suicide Vehicular IED blast in Mogadishu’s 21st October road near the airport as per Somali police sources.  A multi-vehicle private security convoy escorting foreigners was passing by when the explosion hit. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility.
• On January 12^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed four AMISOM soldiers and injured others in the general vicinity of Taabto, Lower Juba region of southern Somalia.
• On January 13^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for attack on Somali government and AMISOM troops in two separate raids by Al-Shabaab fighters on two military bases in Afmadow and Barsangoni town in the suburb of Kismayo city in Lower Juba region, southern Somalia. Al least one government soldier was killed as per local sources.
• On January 13^th, A terror incident reported in Kenya’s NEP. Two Kenyans were killed in a raid claimed by Al-Shabaab militants on Banisa district, Mandera county, northeastern Kenya.
• On January 14^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have launched an attack on an AMISOM military base operated by Ethiopian forces in the city of Hudur, Bokol state, southwestern Somalia, inflicting unknown losses on them.  
• On January 14^th, the Mayor of Hiran region for the Somali government, Ali Geti Osman, survived an assassination attempt claimed by Al-Shabaab. The ambush raid that happened on his convoy on the road between Beledweyne and Ferlbah in Hiran State, central Somalia left one of his guard killed and two others wounded.

Assessments/Observations & Insights

The Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab remains the biggest threat to peace in Somalia and Kenya another group’s key target. It is viewed that is their frequent use of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs), especially vehicle-borne IEDs (VBIEDs), ambush raids and targeted suicide operations will escalate this year.

 The use of vehicular IEDs and forms of explosive devices likely to increase in urban areas of Somalia while overrunning defense posts/FOBs will be the ultimate goals for the Al-Qaeda associated forces in the war-torn Somalia.

Al-Shabaab will escalate IED and ambush attacks mostly on MSRs especially in the war-torn Somalia where roads are dilapidated and thickets. Roadside IED also expected to worsen on Kenya frontier counties (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu) targeting security operators and non-locals. Telecommunication masts (BTS) also will be key targets by the Islamist militant to cut-off communication and wage attacks especially for Kenya’s NEP regions

Resumption of large explosions in the Somalia capital Mogadishu and other key towns in Somalia expected.  Busy joints such as teashops/restaurants especially in the capital Mogadishu are prone targets of the Islamist militants

Targeted attacks on prominent government officials and also on checkpoints manned by Somali security forces within urban areas expected to rise. For Kenya, counterterrorism operators called to be extra vigilant citing the latest series of attacks witnessed in Mandera and Lamu counties. Al-Shabaab wishes to make headlines at the onset of the year even as the militant group boasts of El Adde, Dusit and the Manda Bay attacks that were significant blows for Kenya. The militant resolve/intent to conduct a replica on a high value target for Kenya cannot be downplayed.

Conclusion

Despite important counterterrorism successes throughout 2021, the Al-Qaeda affiliated branch operating in East Africa remained a persistent and pervasive threat. In 2022, the militant group resolve to attack security assets besides toppling Somali government will remain the group’s ultimate goal.

S.I  short-term terrorism forecast for Somalia and Kenya indicate that there will be a surge in terrorism in both countries and the main perpetrator group will be Harakat al-Shabaab al Mujahideen and the main targets will largely be security forces and partly civilians.

For Kenya, security to be beefed on all defense outposts along the common border with Somalia, surveillance to be increased in order to pick on enemy signature and scouting routine to be revised to avoid surprise ambush raids on defense posts in the frontier regions.

Strategic Intelligence will continue to monitor and track the jihadist activities in East Africa and beyond. The groups capability on carrying out repeat attacks on military, convoys and government officials have sharpened over the years. Thus S.I. reports that, the threat and intent on waging attacks against hard and also on soft targets by the Islamist Al-Shabaab in the coming days remain unchanged.