Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of January 14th – January 21st, 2022: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

The Al-Qaeda affiliate militant group, Harakat al Shabaab al Mujahideen (HSM) commonly known as Al-Shabaab continue to wage small to large scale attacks in East Africa, especially in Kenya and Somalia. Surge in Al-Shabaab activities in Somalia has been noted amid election crisis.

In the first three weeks of January 2022, the militant group has escalated attacks against military positions, government officials as well targeting on civilians. Surge in Al-Shabaab suicide attacks has been noted especially in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu, with at least five being recorded in the recent weeks.

Notably, the Islamist militant group through its propaganda media channels, Al-Kataib and Radio Andalus has over exaggerated on the number of operations it has conducted in East Africa in the past one week. Notably, counterterrorism assets at Strategic Intelligence have recorded at least 12 for Kenya and Somalia.  Somalia the home-base of Al-Shabaab take the largest share of these attacks. Attack patterns in Somalia remains almost the same, mostly occurring in central and southern Somalia. Most these attacks are notably repeat attacks especially the ones targeted at Forward Operating Bases (FOBs) and military convoys.

Threat levels thus continue to be skewed towards military operating bases and their patrols convoys besides military convoys on supply missions especially for Somalia. Most of the raids against the targets are notably ambushes and setting up of roadside IEDs with a number of repeat attacks being recorded. Assassination attempts on key officials also witnessed in Mogadishu and its environs as well as resumption of suicide operations.

The Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab militants still retains control over large swathes of rural Somalia and persistently mount attacks in urban centers a confirmation of the group’s resilient despite counter-operations on the group by coalition security operators and hurriedly claiming credit for the overly exaggerated operations for warfare purposes.

For Kenya, another key target of the Islamist Al-Shabaab, the militant group continue to stage low-scale attacks in an attempt to disrupt the calmness that has been witnessed towards the last quarter of 2021. The militant group is keen on disrupting the frontier counties (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu) by planting IEDs on main roads an effort to target security assets on patrol missions.

Thus, Kenya’s counterterrorism operators urged upscale their CT-operations, (patrols, surveillance and scouting of security defense posts as well on critical infrastructures) to pick on enemy movements especially along the border with Somalia and to subsequently be able to thwart possible surprise raids besides preempting occasional threats posed by Al-Shabaab on Kenyan soil.

AS Recently Claimed Attacks:

Week 1: January 1^st – January 7^th

• On January 1^st, Al-Shabaab fighters claimed to have killed and injured several Ethiopian soldiers following massive roadside bomb blast that hit and destroyed their military truck at Jawiil village in Somalia’s Hiran region.
• On January 1^st, Al-Shabaab claimed to have fired several shells targeting a defense base located in the vicinity of Jabi village in the area of Rhaamu in Kenya’s Mandera county. No details on casualties were provided.
• On January 2^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed an IED attack in the outskirt of Dhusamareb. Initial reports indicate several people including government soldiers were wounded. Al-Shabaab claimed credit for the attack via their affiliated Radio Andalus.
•  On January 2^nd, one person killed by suicide car bomb blast in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu.  Preliminary reports indicate that at least one person was killed and two others injured by a suicide car bomb in Howlwadaag district in Mogadishu claimed by Al-Shabaab.
• On January 3^rd, at least six people killed, houses burnt in suspected Al-Shabaab attack in in Widhu, Majembeni area in Lamu county of Kenya.
• On January 2^nd, A civilian killed in Hindi, about 60km away from Witu in another domestic terrorism incident in Lamu county of Kenya. Nassir Mohammed a resident of Kiunga reportedly was killed by IED planted by Al-Shabaab’s local cell.
• On January 3^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed to have fired several mortar shells on an AMISOM FOB operated by Ethiopian troops in Wajid, Bakool region of Somalia. No casualties were reported.
• On January 3^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed to have assassinated a South West administration official in the general vicinity of Burhakaba district, Bay region of Somalia.
• On January 4^th, A civilian killed in Hindi, about 60km away from Witu in another domestic terrorism incident in Lamu county of Kenya. Nassir Mohammed a resident of Kiunga reportedly was killed by IED planted by Al-Shabaab’s local cell.

Week 2: January 7^th – January 14^th

• On January 7^th, Al-Shabaab militants claimed responsibility for attack on US-trained Danab forces in Somalia. Local reports indicate that at least two members of SNA’s Danab brigade were killed and nine others wounded after a bomb blast targeted a military convoy in Dhusumareb, the regional administrative capital of Galmadug state.
•  On January 7^th, Al-Shabaab attack, destroy communication mast in Mandera. Gunmen believed to be Al-Shabaab operatives attacked and destroyed a communication mast in Omar Jilo, Mandera NEP Kenya. No casualties were reported from this incident.
•  On January 7^th, Al-Shabaab to have conducted an attack in Milihoi, Lamu prefecture of Kenya. The militants that their target was a GSU camp in the area.
•  On January 7^th, Al Shabaab militants tried to seize Bahdo village in northeastern Galgudud region of central Somalia. The militants were successfully repelled by local fighters and state forces killing at least 20 militants.
• On January 9^th, Al-Shabaab clashed with SNA and Galmudug regional troops in the general vicinity of at Adakibir, about 60 kilometers East of Adado, Galgadud region in central Somalia. At least four SNA soldiers including a commander killed in the fight.
• On January 10^th, Somali Gorgor Forces clashed with a group of Al-Shabaab militants near Tawakal village in the Lower Shabelle region of southern Somalia. Somalia military officials claimed the operation killed at least 25 Al-Shabaab fighters. Al-Shabaab militants were reportedly grouping to attack Barire town, 2.5 miles southeast of Tawakal.
• On January 11^th, Al-Shabaab attacks an army base on the outskirts of the capital Mogadishu killing at least 3 soldiers on Tuesday and injuring several others.
•  On January 11^th, Al-Shabaab militants ambushed a Kenyan police vehicle between Liboi and Kulan in Garissa County, eastern Kenya. The attackers claimed to have caused casualties besides seizing AK47 rifles and ammunition.
• On January 12^th, at least 10 people, including 5 soldiers, were killed in a Suicide Vehicular IED blast in Mogadishu’s 21st October Road near the airport as per Somali police sources.  A multi-vehicle private security convoy escorting foreigners was passing by when the explosion hit. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility.
• On January 12^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed four AMISOM soldiers and injured others in the general vicinity of Taabto, Lower Juba region of southern Somalia.
•  On January 13^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for attack on Somali government and AMISOM troops in two separate raids by Al-Shabaab fighters on two military bases in Afmadow and Barsangoni town in the suburb of Kismayo city in Lower Juba region, southern Somalia. Al least one government soldier was killed as per local sources.
• On January 13^th, A terror incident reported in Kenya’s NEP. Two Kenyans were killed in a raid claimed by Al-Shabaab militants on Banisa district, Mandera county, northeastern Kenya.
• On January 14^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have launched an attack on an AMISOM military base operated by Ethiopian forces in the city of Hudur, Bokol state, southwestern Somalia, inflicting unknown losses on them.
• On January 14^th, the Mayor of Hiran region for the Somali government, Ali Geti Osman, survived an assassination attempt claimed by Al-Shabaab. The ambush raid that happened on his convoy on the road between Beledweyne and Ferlbah in Hiran State, central Somalia left one of his bodyguards killed and two others wounded.

Week 3: January 14^th – January 21^st

• On January 15^th, Al-Shabaab attempted probe on an AMISOM base in Taabto Lower Juba repulsed. However, Al-Shabaab media claimed to have caused a few injuries.
• On January 16^th, Somalia government spokesman wounded in blast at a busy Dabka intersection in Mogadishu. Somalia’s government spokesperson was wounded in an explosion in the capital in a suicide car bomb attack, claimed by Al-Shabaab. Mohamed Ibrahim Moalimuu was rushed to a hospital.
• On January 16^th, Governor of Somalia’s Hiiraan region, Ali Jayte Osman survived an assassination attempt after his convoy was ambushed by Al-Shabaab fighters this while travelling at Burfiiq village between Baladweyne and Farlibaax towns. One of his guards was killed and two others injured.
• On January 17^th, Al-Shabaab through its propaganda media wing claimed to have targeted non-locals in general vicinity of Banisa in Kenya’s Mandera Northeastern prefectures. Local sources reported that two Christians were killed in the attack, which was claimed by Al-Shabaab jihadists.
• On January 17^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have clashed with SNA and foreign troops in the outskirts of Awdheegle, Lower Shabelle. No details on casualties were reported.
• On January 17^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have shot dead an officer of Jubaland Administration in the general vicinity of Bar Sanguni on the outskirts of the port town of Kismayo, Lower Juba.
• On January 18^th, four people were killed and 10 others wounded in suicide blast in Somali capital.  At least four people were killed and 10 others injured on Tuesday in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu in a suicide bombing at a tea-shop near a military base. Islamist group Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack.
• On January 18^th, An IED explosion was reported in Mogadishu’s Dharkenlay as per police sources. The IED was fitted on a vehicle belonging to a private company. No casualties were reported from the incident.
• On January 19^th, Al-Shabaab fighters claimed attack on an AMISOM FOB operated by Ethiopian troops in Hadur town, Somalia’s Bakool region. Unknown casualties reported.
• On January 19^th, Al-Shabaab militants claimed to have attacked AMISOM military base in Qoqani village in Lower Juba region. Casualties on the attack unknown as per Local Media Reports.
• On January 20^th, two grenade explosions rocked a federal government checkpoint in Wadajir district of Mogadishu. No details on casualties were reported
• On January 20^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have staged an ambush attack on Somali troops in general area of Janale Lower Shabelle region. Local media reports indicate that government troops were attacked in Janale area near the main bridge. A number of troops wounded in the gun fight.

Assessments/Observations & Insights

Despite many years of sustained counterterrorism pressure, Somali forces supported by allied AMISOM partners and the U.S, the terrorist threat in East Africa is not degraded. The Al-Qaeda’s affiliated Al-Shabaab retains freedom of movement in many parts of southern Somalia and has demonstrated an ability and intent to strike outside of the country from low to large-scale attacks.

Notably, an average of at least one or two attacks are recorded from across the regions of Somalia. Regions mostly targeted in frequent attacks include the capital and the ones in central and southern Somalia where the militant group maintains quite some control. Though the militant’s operations are notably low-scale, they pose threat to already counterterrorism gains made in the war-torn country. As for Kenya, retaliatory and disruptive incidents linked to Al-Shabaab are also being reported along the volatile border prefectures with Somalia.

The trend and intent to strike on military and government besides its allies remains unchanged. The threat levels remain skewed towards Forward Operations Bases (FOBs) for both local and foreign troops. A number of operations have been recorded on FOBs and military convoys in the period under review. Preferred attack types remain the use of IEDs, landmines and roadside bombs. Ambush raids are also gaining traction on the military targets.

The militant in the week under review targeted a key government official demonstrating it ability to plan and execute an attack on a high value target. A suicide bomber in the Somali capital has injured government spokesman and former journalist Mohamed Ibrahim Moalimuu. He has survived at least three previous Al-Shabaab attacks.

Its paramount that joint Counterterrorism (CT/COIN) not to relent on war against the Islamist Al-Shabaab group which US State Department recently designated its two senior leaders. Relevant actors to upscale operations in an effort to disrupt, degrade, and deny victory to Al-Shabaab and also pro-ISIS-Somalia operating in northern Somalia and neighboring countries

Conclusion

An after-action review (AAR) on suspected Al-Shabaab camps in sub sectors of south and central Somalia also highly recommended. Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continue to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activity in the East Africa regions and warns of consistent militant’s increased activity.

Continuous monitoring, surveillance and scouting encouraged several meters away from forward operating bases/police outpost for both Kenya and Somalia. Hard targets remain Al-Shabaab key targets. Change of routine on patrol teams as well as armies’ convoys also encouraged to avoid devastating IEDs/landmines that remains so common weapon of choice by the Al-Shabaab.

The militant group’s intentions to strike on hard targets (security forces) in Somalia and in Kenya remains the militant’s ultimate goal. Thus, joint CT and COIN operators should not relent on mounting concerted military pressuring against the Islamists groups in an effort defeat and annihilate them, besides to guard counter-terrorism gains so far made in the region.