Executive Summary
Al-Shabaab continues to conduct attacks both within Somalia and in neighboring Kenya. The primary objective of the Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab targeting military positions and also on civilians’ targets remains unchanged.
Al-Shabaab’s continued attacks degrade the Somali government’s ability to both provide security and alleviate the dire humanitarian situation in the country and now the situation continues to worsen citing the current political dynamics where the outgoing president has refused to cede power but instead had his term extended by the lawmakers.
Ramadhan period is on and as analysts at Strategic Intelligence (S.I) forecasted, the Islamists militants will continue to upscale attacks targeting on security forces bases, convoys as well as public service vehicles and busy establishments such as hotels and restaurants; especially in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu.
The week under review has seen the Islamists Al-Shabaab stage a number of attacks in the capital Mogadishu targeting Somali police stations and military defense positions. A public vehicle (minibus) also attacked in Goboley vicinity of Middle Shabelle region of Somalia where several civilians were killed and scores were injured in an IED attack.
The week has also seen increased political theatrics in an effort to save the incumbent Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo from ceding power following his term expiry on February 8. Somalia lawmakers from the lower house voted to extend the term of President Farmajo with two years. The unprecedented move has rubbed Somalia leaders of regional states as well as international community including the US and the UK threatening with sanctions and other unspecified consequences on those responsible.
Prior to the lower house of Parliament taking the disputed vote extending Farmajo’s mandate, then Mogadishu police commander Sadiq John had tried to bar the lawmakers from convening in parliament and making that decision. His act saw him sacked and being replaced by a former Al-Shabaab operative who defected and joined the country’s army. Police commander Sadiq John after his sacking was immediately replaced with Colonel Farhan Qarole as the new commander in-charge of Mogadishu police force. Appointment Colonel Farhan Qarole, a Turkish-trained officer as Mogadishu police commander is a former Al-Shabaab militant raises serious and fundamental concerns over the capital’s security.
No major incident reported on Kenya, especially the border prefectures with Somalia. However, Kenya’s multi-agencies on security matters to remain vigilant throughout the period of Ramadhan. All concerned counterterrorism assets to remain on high alert, security to be beefed on all defense outposts along the common border with Somalia, surveillance to be increased to pick on enemy movements and scouting routine to be revised to avoid surprise ambush raids on defense posts in the frontier regions.
AS Recently Claimed/Recorded Attacks April 9th – 16th
- On April 10th, Landmine blast targets a vehicle carrying traffic police officers in the vicinity of Haile Barise factory in Mogadishu. Local reports indicated that one officer killed and two others sustained injuries.
- On April 10th, a Jubaland intelligence officer identified as Hamdi Mohamad killed after a bomb fitted into his car exploded. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack.
- On April 10th, Governor of Somalia’s Bay region, Ali Doyo, survives an assassination attempt after a bomber blew himself up in Baidoa town. At least 4 people, including the governor’s guards killed, 6 others wounded. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility.
- On April 10th, IED explosion kills senior government officer and two bodyguards in Mogadishu’s Heliwa district. Al-Shabab claimed the responsibility for the targeted IED attack.
- On April 12th, At least five Jubaland security forces (JSF) killed, others injured in an IED attack at Afmadow airport in Somalia’s Lower Juba region as per local sources. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility.
- on April 12th, Al-Shabaab attacked a Burundian African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) base in Burane area, near Mahaday town in central Somalia’s Middle Shabelle region. Al-Shabaab militants had attacked a Somali National Army (SNA) base near Mahaday town on April 8.
- On April 13th, Fierce clashes between forces serving under AU and Al-Shabaab fighters reported in the outskirt of Kismayo. Lower Jubba region of Somalia. Shabaab fighters successfully repelled.
- On April 13th, Al-Shabaab gunmen attacked a Somali police station in Warta Nabada district in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu. Casualties reported.
- On April 13th, Al-Shabaab militants attacked a police station in Mogadishu’s Bar Ubah neighborhood.
- On April 15th, At least 17 civilians killed in Middle Shebelle, a region that has been struggling with stability, following a bomb blast that targeted a public service minibus traveling from the capital Mogadishu. The incident took place in the vicinity of Gololey about 50 Kilometers north of Mogadishu as per local sources.
- On April 16th, Heavily armed Al-Shabaab militants took over Ba’adweyn town in Somalia’s Mudug region. Militants were seen setting up posts all over the town as per local sources. This comes less than 24 hrs after SNA vacated from the town.
Assessments/Observations & Insights
Nearly a dozen attacks reported all from the regions of the Horn of Africa nation. As per SI. Forecast, threat levels continue to be skewed towards forward operating bases (military bases) both for local forces and AMISOM troops.
The militants also in the past few days increased activity targeting on Somali police stations especially from across the districts of the capital Mogadishu.
Preferred attack types remain the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs), car bombs (IEDs fitted on vehicles) and landmines/roadside bombs. The trend to use explosives and suicide bombing maybe reinforced indiscriminate firing to maximize on casualties during this period of Ramadhan expected.
As Analysts at SI, had decoded a number of the group’s videos detailing their latest attacks, its imminent, the group’s wish to conduct Istihadis (suicide missions) and die in so called martyrdom operations during the Holy Month of Ramadhan, and as such more suicide raids expected on military bases and government establishments. In the videos, the key message was targeting ‘the crusaders and its allies’ meaning foreign troops in Somalia expect multiple attacks in an effort to heed the call.
Another worrying factor is where a number of Somali national army troops recently have decamped into other forces of the regional states. For example, Members of Turkish trained Gorgor unit defected from Somalia federal army to Puntland regional state, amidst political crisis in the country. Another group of US trained Danab forces and Turkish trained Gorgor and Haram’ad soldiers defected to Somaliland last week in a move that possibly shows some discontentment with the country’s weak National Army.
Now already there have been some high-profile defections from the National Army, there are fears splintering of Somalia’s security forces along political and clan lines, and the risk of deadly street-to-street combat in Mogadishu should the crisis fester.
Analysts also warns of military competition of interests underscoring it provides space for Al-Shabaab. These competing interests leave the ground clear for Al-Shabaab’s overarching narrative of one Islamic system that claims to put the Somali faithful first. The group often styles itself as a mediator in local conflicts, where international, regional and Somali forces are frequently seen as partisan. The competition also provides space for Al-Qaeda’s Al-Shabaab to deal with its own internal rivalries and appear resilient.
Conclusion
Somalia war will be a long war. More military pressure can only sustain progress within durable political settlements and thus to achieve this, more systematic efforts and support should be given to parallel national and local reconciliation processes at all levels of Somali locals who are suffering from the core of bad leadership. The paramount focus should be on addressing local Somali political grievances, tough measures from international community not limited from sanctions should be induced to errant Somalia leadership. Tapping into the grievances of local communities is what enables Al-Shabaab to remain and rebuild in Somalia should be put into consideration.
The current political crisis in the war-torn Somalia plays straight into the hands of Al-Shabaab, the jihadists who control large swathes of Somalia and are bent on toppling the government in Mogadishu and imposing strict Islamic law.
The Al-Qaeda-linked militants have released propaganda videos in recent weeks that seize on the political chaos, casting the country’s elite as power hungry and unfit to govern.
The internal wrangling gives Al-Shabaab an opening to exploit divisions in the security and further its violent agenda.
