Weekly Counter Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of September 1st – September 10th, 2021: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa (Kenya and Somalia)

Executive Summary

Harakat Shabaab al Mujahideen (HSM) popularly known as the Al-Shabaab is an Al-Qaeda’s affiliate with its home-base in Somalia. The militant group has upscaled its efforts to conduct terror operations in East Africa. The terrorist group notably has increased its activity from across the regions of the war-torn Somalia further threatening the stability of the country already facing myriad of political and economic challenges.

The terrorist group has successfully entrenched itself in central and southern Somalia with an insurgency that continue to Somali security forces, foreign troops and Somali citizenry.  The group’s increased activity continues to pose threat and significant burden on the countries the East Africa countries affected and more so to local and regional forces combating them.

Counterterrorism efforts continue to play key role towards degrading of Al-Shabaab. Nonetheless, increased activities have been noted. Al-Shabaab continue to stage low-scale to large scale from the war-torn Somalia regions. Notable repeat attacks have been recorded in Lower Shabelle, Lower Juba, Gedo, Bakool, Bay, Hiran, Middle Shabelle and Mudug regions. Notable attacks have also been mounted on security forces’ targets in the capital Mogadishu and its environs. The militants have also claimed an attack in Bosaso, Bari region, Puntland, northern Somalia.

Al-Shabaab persistent activities continue to be reported from across a number of theaters in Somalia though the militant group persistently has sustained insurgency in central and southern regions. In the past ten days of September, at least 22 attacks have been recorded, all incidents have been recorded from across the regions of Somalia.

Lull has been witnessed in Kenya’s frontier counties (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu) that also have been key targets of the Islamist militants. However, Strategic Intelligence urge the concerned counterterrorism operators in the country should not sit pretty because of this calmness, rather they should intensify patrols along the border prefectures with Somalia as well as collaborate with locals in an effort towards stemming and thwarting future attacks.

AS Recently Claimed Attacks (1^st September – September 10^th)

• On September 1^st, Al-Shabaab to have attacked Federal government soldier in general vicinity of Mogadishu. At least 4 soldiers were killed in Mogadishu and its outskirts and their two AK47 rifles seized by the Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab operatives.
• On September 1^st, Al-Shabaab claimed attack on Federal government troops in Janale and Marere areas of Lower Shabelle. The ambush attack reportedly resulted to a number of casualties.
• On September 1^st, Al-Shabaab assassins shot dead one SNA soldier in Darusalaam, on the outskirts of the capital Mogadishu. The assassins seized his AK47 rifle.
• On September 1^st, Al-Shabaab a low-scale attack on AMISOM troops in Kuday Island, Lower Juba region, southern Somalia. No details on casualties were provided.
• On September 2^nd, Al-Shabaab attacks target Somali civilians in Elasha Biyaha, Lower Shabelle. No details on casualties were provided.
• On September 3^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for assassinating a NISA officer in general vicinity of Afgoye, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia.
• On September 3^rd, Al-Shabaab militants stormed a Jubaland administration base in Kudhaa, Lower Juba, claimed responsibility for killing several soldiers. The militants also looted weapons and other military equipment from the camp.
• On September 4^th, Al-Shabaab claimed a grenade attack targeting senior politicians in Jowhar, Middle Shabelle. Initial reports indicate that the militants hurled grenades on a house belonging to members of the Hirshabele administration where at least three lawmakers had met. One lawmaker was seriously wounded in the attack.
• On September 4^th, Al-Shabaab staged an ambush attack targeting an AMISOM military base operated by Ethiopian (ENDF) troops in Hudur, Bakool region of Somalia. No details on casualties were provided.
• On September 4^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have hurled several grenades targeting Somali government forces on patrol, in general area of Jowhar, the administrative capital of Middle Shabelle region of Somalia. No details on casualties were provided.
• On September 5^th, Reports from southern Somalia indicate an attack was carried out on foreign AMISOM troops. At least one Ugandan soldier was killed and others were injured in a car bomb blast at area 60 in Lower Shabelle region.
• On September 5^th, Al-Shabaab claimed another low-scale attack that targeted an AMISOM military base in Danow area of Lower Shabelle. No details on casualties were provided.
• On September 6^th, Al-Shabaab fire several mortar shells on a military base operated by Puntland forces in Af Urur area on the outskirts of Bossaso, Bari region. Casualties from the attack reported.
• On September 6^th, Reports from Bay region in southern Somalia indicate that an armed attack was carried out on troops from the Laftagareen administration. No details on casualties were provided.
• On September 6^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked Somali government troops and destroying at least one truck in general area of Afgoye, Lower Shabelle. The troops were from Barire when they were ambushed on their way to their bases in Afgoye.
• On September 6^th, Al-Shabaab target Abdirahman Haji, the deputy intelligence chief of Wanlaweyn district of Lower Shabelle region, Somalia. The intelligence chief narrowly escaped the roadside blast with some injuries.
• On September 7^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have raided AMISOM military base operated by Burundian troops with mortar shells in El Baraf, Middle region of Somalia. Casualties from the attack reported.
• On September 7^th, Al-Shabaab assassin opened fire killing a Somali government soldier in general area of Elsaqir on the outskirts of Daynile district, southeastern Banaadir region of Somalia.
• On September 7^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked Hirshabelle administration soldiers around the main bridge in Beledweyne, Hiran region of Somalia. Five soldiers were reportedly wounded in the ambush gun fire.
• On September 9^th, Al-Shabaab targeted a checkpointed manned by Somali government officers in on the outskirts of Bardale district, Bay region of Somalia. No details on casualties were reported.
• On September 10^th, Somalia government soldier and officials killed in Gedo region of Somalia. Initial reports indicate that Al-Shabaab launched an attack on SNA operated base in Bardhere vicinity of Gedo, at least one soldier was killed in the attack and three others were injured.

Assessment/Observations & Insights

For many years, Somalia has been mired in conflict driven by clan warlords and violent extremist groups competing for power. Over a dozen reconciliation conferences have been held outside Somalia. All have failed to solve the militancy crisis. The Al-Qaeda-affiliated Al-Shabaab insurgent group and the Somali government have remained locked in a violent stalemate for years.

Despite concerted counterterrorism operations from Somali troops supported by foreign coalition forces that have over the years seen the Islamist militants lose key towns and localities, the group however has remained resilient and persistent conducting raids. The militant group has escalated attacks in Somalia regions more so on both local and foreign military targets. The group has maintained a tempo of at least two to three attacks almost every day in Somalia.  More attacks continue to be recorded over the weekends (Friday through to Sunday).

The terrorists have been planting explosives on the routes used by the security agencies attacking them. Notable, in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu, Al-Shabaab has escalated attacks on security forces as well assassination attempts of key government officials. Use of IEDs, landmines, car bombs and roadside bomb increasingly common on frequently used routes by security forces. Ambush attacks also becoming another preferred attack type on military convoys and forward operating bases followed by indiscriminate gun fire on targets to maximize casualties.

Though their notable calm in Kenya’s frontier regions mostly targeted by Al-Shabaab, Kenya’s multi-security operators urged to intensify counter operations including scouting and surveillance along the border prefectures with Somalia to avert possible civilians’ attacks (especially travelers on public service vehicles), on critical infrastructures and defense outposts.

Conclusion

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) will continue to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activities in East Africa regions in an effort to provide actionable intelligence towards thwarting and disrupting militant’s activities in the region.

More airstrikes should be deployed against Al-Shabaab positions. Destruction of pro-Al-Shabaab propaganda radio facilities among other networks should be encouraged in order to counter militant’s media promoting their claims, which mostly are exaggerated to achieve their warfare goals.

Joint CT and COIN actors urged not to relent on mounting concerted military pressure on the Islamists groups in an effort to disrupt and weakening their network besides their plans; thus, already gains made against the militant group will be preserved and sustained denying the group fertile grounds as well as local support to thrive.