The Hawiye masters are at it. Waging war against the Marehan’s and their friends-clans in Somalia. Hours after Jubbaland Security Forces (JSF) redeployed to key administrative towns in Gedo, a deadly armed conflict heated up in neighboring Prefecture, Galmudug pitting Sufi Ahlu Sunna Waljamaa (ASWF) the influential religious-political outfit in the Federal State against the Somali National Army (SNA). 16 people have been killed so far and a dozen others injured in Dhusamareb. Days before this conflict, Puntland Federal State military engaged the military forces of the Republic of Somaliland. However, it is the Galmudug conflict that is interesting to the eyes of the world. Interestingly, ASWJ opened 2 fronts against SNA, in the capital and Guriel, 75 kilometers south, forcing Mogadishu to fly troops to Dhusamareh, the capital of Mudug. Now ASWJ has marched to the capital and moving south, sweeping away SNA defenses.
As political and social divisions have widened (again) in Somalia, more people ask about the possibility of a civil war in Somalia, and all signs indicate a war is heating up. But the problem is not the people neither is it their political and Federal States Leaders, rather the President of Somalia himself, Mohamed Farmaajo. He has brewed political, ethnic, and class divisions in the weak Horn of Africa country and it is getting worse, the national dialogue is breaking down. Instead of compromise and common ground as the goal for political leaders, intimidation and military incursions are Farmaajo’s new remedy for socio-politics.
Genesis of the Galmudug Conflict
Despite protests and warning of catastrophic ramifications, President Farmaajo’s stooge Ahmed Abdi Kariye was elected as Galmudug Federal State President on February 2nd 2020. This was against the will of the State’s political class patrons, stalwarts, and clan elders. The election, though skewed, received half-hearted endorsement from international community including the United States. Sheikh Mohamed Shakir, the leader Ahlu Sunna Waljamaa (ASWJ) rejected those elections and declared himself as leader of the prefecture. Ahmed Duale Haaf, the former President claims the throne, insisting he is still president of the prefecture, further escalating the political upheaval and widening the fissures, the perfect way to stoke clan conflict.
Prime Minister Hassan Khaire followed through Farmaajo’s plans, destabilize Galmudud since it shares similar demographics with Jubbaland and Puntland, which is bad for FGS’s long-term political strategy. Khaire strategy was plain stupid. He went ahead and initiated the integration of various factions of local militia to the National Military, an attempt to divide and weaken clan faction and militia capability and subsequently dominate them politically. To achieve a tradeoff he pursued a superficial political compromise between the key players, a temporary respite, and a display of lackluster political strategy, perhaps because he is a political greenhorn or a mere Farmaajo handyman. The ramifications of such recklessness include political and security catastrophes which can spillover and destabilize the country further. FGS stalwarts, largely Hawiye businessmen downplayed all the risks and imposed their ‘fortified walls’ solutions to a very fragile sociopolitical environment. Oblivious of the risk, FGS attempted to execute the same strategy in Jubbalands Gedo, the backlash by the international community has forced them to draw back.
Rebuttals: Misuse of Donated Modern Weapons and The Institution of the Somali National Army
Intelligence shows Farmaajo’s obsession with exploiting the Somali Army politically. The Turkish trained units of the SNA are now pawns; political assets deployable to orchestrate or support political warfare. To sum it all, the misuse of arms supplied by well-wishing countries and strategic partners to fight clan wars is not only criminal, but must be stopped by all means.
SNA are pawns in an unwinnable war. The army will be crippled by the same clan warfare and it will disintegrate to a militia. Farmaajo’s executive objectives are not only plain stupid but are already tearing Somalia to pieces. These 16th Century Mongolian civilization methods are ineffective and more often counter-productive. Strategy is a prudent idea or set of ideas for employing the instruments of national power in a synchronized and integrated fashion to achieve theater, national, and/or multinational objectives and Mogadishu should stand down and re-imagine its socio-political blueprint before Somalia fractures badly.
