The Governor of Mandera in Kenya’s North Eastern claims the Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia, Harakat al-Shabaab al Mujahideen has gained 50% territorial control of the inter-border County. The statement made it to Media Houses and the story immediately went viral and was uncritically published by the major media. Ali Ibrahim Roba’s claims are quite interesting to Counter Terrorism analysts and operators in East Africa for they indicts Kenya’s Counter Terrorism operations and efforts of massive failure. However, the claims are false. Counter Terrorism analysts have viewed it as toxic political populism and largely; a manipulation of thoughts and language about NEP Kenya, thus it was propaganda. In Countering Extremists, propaganda stains every little effort.
An analysis of the security situation in Mandera County doesn’t confirm the Governors claims. Intelligence reports indicate there were several sightings of the Al-Shabaab terrorists near the border with Kenya between 20th December 2020 and January 5th 2021 besides several low-scale terror related incidents. This doesn’t mean Intelligence and Counter Terrorism Operators are downplaying threats and related dynamics, rather view the statement by the Governor as alarmist and propaganda. The statement acerbates ultra-ethnic terrorism which is common in the particular region, hence he was referencing clan militias he knows exists in Mandera. The political propaganda has easily molded minds, created an irresistible pressure on security institutions, and turned media houses to become propaganda machines.
Clan Militia & Dynamics in Mandera Inter-Border County.
Mandera is where Kenya borders Ethiopia and Somalia and an inter-communal conflicts flashpoint. The area is politically dominated by Garre Community, Roba’s Kinsmen. This political hegemony is often countered by the Murule and Marehan communities through sponsored militancy, particularly through Al-Shabaab mercenaries. Kenya faces a list of threats, natural and otherwise, clan militancy in Mandera is one of them. The Garre has opted to get cozy with the Somali based Al-Shabaab terrorists. In return, Al-Shabaab has promised to protect them only if the Garre give out men to recruit (a basis for voluntary mobilization system for the terror group), zakat, and business to the Marehan and Murule patrons.
Ali Roba’s statement was partly meant for the rival clans: “the Garre have bowed to Al-Shabaab to guarantee liberty in the area, as a counter-balance against their perennial aggressors. We shall give more to Emir Hassan Okolla and his men as you.”
Hassan Okolla, a descendant of Mandera is the border area Al-Shabaab commander and is on the Intelligence and Military radar. Once he is taken out like Mohamed Kuno aka Gamadheere, the little network will collapse.
Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) Bandwagon in Kenya.
Counter Terrorism Operators and Military Intelligence analysts at S.I decodes the statement further. Roba is a politician and wants to be part of the dynamic political Bandwagon, particularly the anti-Building Bridges one. The Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) is the current political subject in the East African powerhouse. To get into the fray, that alarmist statement gave the right impetus. He wants to lead the campaigns and solidify his grip in the regions socio-politics. He wants to remain sociopolitically relevant.
Governor Ali Roba ambitions are far flung. He is serving his last term. His Ethiopian roots and political position inspires him to stay around longer, perhaps, for business and political posterity. The Militia he claims is around could be his vehicle to keep a grasp on the Prefecture’s social and political groups. Militias become opportunities for patronage. What we know about Militia Units is that their leadership positions could become steppingstones for local politicians, or adornments for the résumés of Roba. Local militias often become powerful political tools if organized upon ethnic, creed, or ideology lines. They don’t wear a government gambeson and have an inherently problematic loyalty to the central authority. This is Ali Roba’s objective, to be either a Quasi or the De-Fcato leader of the Mandera Clans Militia which are covertly controlled by Somali based terrorists and contraband traders. His loyalty to Somalia’s Federal Government plays out in his constant diatribe about the Jubbaland politics. He is not a patriot, rather an overly ambitious clannish lord.
