Prior to the intelligence-led counter terrorism operations over the past 3 years, the Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia seemed to be invincible as it staged fleeting and spectacular terrorist attacks. The media’s coverage and alarmist political claims of these attacks portrayed the group as far more powerful as it actually was. The hyped successes and media coverage held great appeal to Muslims seeking a transcendent cause. Today, a significant reduction in attacks is traced to intelligence and military special operations groups COIN and CT operations. The group’s capability to conduct attacks in some specific areas has diminished. Attacks and Plots have been identified and disrupted consistently.
The Appeal of Jihadism is fading and subsequently limited. The defeats and declining hype has made Al-Shabaab Mujahideen terror group dramatic growth and fame reach the end of its pinnacle. The market for its ideology has significantly declined while its recruitment attempts are less successful. This doesn’t mean the group is defeated or its jihadist ideology has disappeared. There are fewer large scale attacks to hype, less cross border attacks and almost no reports of young men trying to cross the border to join the terror group, and all that connotes the group’s diminishing appeal.
The Kenyan Coast and Lower Eastern region continues to witness a dramatic decline of the terror group. Lamu was a flashpoint for several years and was dubbed home to Jaysh Ayman wing of the Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia. This grassroots jihadist group has been weakened and its influence significantly ostracized in the Coastal area. The group used to freely move in and out of the area. It used to indiscriminately ambush security officers and kill villagers and travelers. The slowing tempo of grassroots attacks, killing of its members by Special Operations Units, and without new propaganda to pitch for new recruits clearly is a sign their appeal has faded and fast diminishing. The youths who fancied the group became disenchanted by both the violent ideology and lack of appeal. This will go on for a long time, and it is a big win in Countering Violent Extremism.
