Somali Terror Group Al-Shabaab is losing both ground and its tactical capability. Most important to note is how sidelined the group is by both local and international media.
The Al-Qaeda allied group is not making headlines and that is worrying their strategists and top commanders.
The scenario draws out a picture of a militant outfit feeling demoralized and on a steady decline.
Top commanders whose religious-political interests often add impetus on their cause cannot give up. They are optimistic and equally desperate.
Intelligence Analysis
These two situations “OPTIMISTIC & DESPERATE” are extremely dangerous. According to David James of Strategic Intelligence Service, “the group has been fractured into three, a faction that wants to join the Daesh, the moderates, and the Al-Qaeda ideology adherents. At some point, the pressure mounted on them will unify them any time soon. The unity of purpose backed by the resolve to act against the desperate and optimistic outlook will be a turning point.
This we have observed by their quick counter IW strategies. They are posting videos and responding through social media to intelligence services and media reports about their losses. It is an indicator of fractured resolve to act pro. Another aspect of the desperation is launch of attacks.”
Desperate for Media Limelight to Attract Foreign Jihadists to regain relevance
Director David James analyses that “Desperation factors suicidal thoughts and similar actions. Diehards of the outfit will eventually conduct a spectacular mass causality attack to claim lost glory. The objective of such an attack will be to capture the headlines and shift focus from Daesh & Boko Haram to the Somali militant-terror Islamist group Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen.”
“On 13th of March 2015, the Somali militant-terror Islamist group Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen launched an attack on a convoy of a Governor in the North East of Kenya. The attack’s objective was to kill the governor and grab the headlines. It could have been a massive story but it miserably failed since it was an act of desperation.”
It will be important to keep looking out for cells whose members have been profiled as psychologically weak. Such cells will certainly take advantage of any opportunity to conduct attacks.
