Event
OSINT sources reported on Monday 31st August on the sinking of five gunboats that were ferrying South Sudan government troops along the River Nile in Unity and Jonglei states as the government troops were moving towards Malakal, capital of the oil-rich Upper Nile state.
Latest summaries indicate that South Sudan armed opposition faction led by former vice president, Riek Machar, claimed their forces destroyed one government’s big barge and five gunboats carrying troops and heavy weapons, all burnt and sunk in the River Nile.
They also claimed capturing in good condition another big barge loaded with heavy weapons.
Summary and Forecast
There has been heavy fire exchange between South Sudanese government and the armed opposition since the signing of the August 2015 peace deal that was meant to restore peace in the African country.
Both warring parties are accusing each other of breaching the deal which stipulated cease fire. The opposition spokesperson said their forces fought back in self-defense when the government convoy comprising of barges and gunboats attacked their forces at Wathkech, Nyiew and Tonga county on Monday. United States have already warned the rebelling groups in South Sudan of consequences if the animosity goes on.
However, intelligence analysis foresees continued disagreement between the warring unless a more compromising peace deal is struck. It will not be easy to draw a peace deal that Both Kiir and Machar will agree on since there are other contigent parties that the two must agree with. Machar must advance terms that will go down well with his fellow rebels while Kiir must appease his officials in government too, making any efforts towards an amicable solution remote.
