Somalia and Kenya’s Indian Ocean border row is unlikely to spark armed conflict between the two countries but threatens regional stability. The rift is largely factored by a maritime dispute and political on the vast oil and gas interests in the contested coastal triangle area stretching over 160,580 square kilometers (62,000 square miles). The spat may have ramifications for fishing communities; especially locals from Lamu Island.
Somalia-Kenya standoff on the disputed maritime border has sparked diplomatic tensions between two country’s battling with Al-Shabaab, a common enemy. Interventions from IGAD as well as international community to resolve the dispute amicably and possibly out the International Court of Justice (ICJ) has failed, Somalia preferring the court way.
Somalia, which lies northeast of Kenya, wants to extend its maritime frontier with Kenya along the line of the land border, in a southeasterly direction and on the other hand Kenya wants the border to head out to sea in a straight easterly line. The disputed region apart from being an important fishing ground for both countries it is also rich in gas and oil.
After Somalia first brought the case before the ICJ in 2014 and the public hearing started on March 15 with Kenya announcing its intention to withdrawal from the case expected to run until March 24. Kenya intends to present it reservations of withdrawing to the UN Security Council.
A number of security and conflict resolution experts are of the view that the dispute could have been settled out of ICJ pointing on Somalia being adamant could cause instability in the region. The experts cited that there are so many alternative mechanisms that could be much more effective and would deliver results, one of them being the Africa Union border mechanism. The second is direct bilateral negotiations between Kenya and Somalia.
Somalia pursuing the case to the ICJ is heavily seen as politically motivated. Mogadishu has severally blamed Nairobi of interfering with the country’s internal affairs by supporting Jubaland and also Somaliland. Kenya has refuted the claims as untrue and baseless.
The maritime case/dispute is expected to further weaken the already fragile Horn of Africa nation which receives support to battle the Islamists Al-Shabaab from African Union peacekeeping troops of which Kenya is a contributor. Kenya currently has a contingent of almost 3,500 troops in the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM), deployed to fight the Al-Qaeda aligned terrorist group Al-Shabaab.
Somalia is set to pay a hefty price citing that a substantial finance of the poor country will be directed towards the case and not towards arming and facilitating the country’s weak national forces to fight the Al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab on the other hand could seek to profit further from Somalia’s current domestic and international conflicts wage more attacks and further capture more localities. Besides the resources meant to combat the Somali-based terrorist groups will be redirected toward resolving internal political frustrations and that will be a win for Al-Shabaab.
