Highlight
- Al-Shabaab overpowered Somali government soldiers defending Beledweynetown, and was able to occupy areas outlying the town.
Al-Shabaab Recovering Lost Territories
On 29th July 2015, Al-Shabaab militants engaged Somali government soldiers stationed in Beledweyne town and were able to conquer the surrounding settlement thus forcing government soldiers to execute a hasty retreat which saw Al-Shabaab overrun other surrounding villages without a fight.
Analysis
On its own, the Somali government has been unable to stem the ascendancy of Al-Shabaab and it has therefore been heavily dependent on KDF and AMISOM to enable it prop up its administration in regions threatened by Al-Shabaab insurgency.
Following the start of Operation Jubba corridor a forthnight ago, Al-Shabaab was forced to cede all its major towns to AMISOM and KDF troops. Several of these towns and the surrounding liberated villages were left to the Somali government to administer, while government soldiers were given complete control of some of these areas. However, starting a week after the Jubba Corridor commenced, Al-Shabaab launched a series of counter-offensive on areas held by Somali government troops, and they were able to overrun some of these areas including Ceel Muslim and CeelCaad; as well as conduct terror attacks in Mogadishu and Marka towns.
Forecast
The Somali National Government would still be heavily dependent on AMISOM, Ethiopian and Kenyan governments for its survival in the medium-term; while Al-Shabaab would continue to erode government control in Bay, Lower Shabelle, Gedo and Galmudug areas.
This update and analysis was created by Avraham ben Adam
It could be coz they’re deliberately reluctant and want KDF and AMISOM to prolong their stay in Somalia…Somali’s Govt knows what needs to be done
Somali government is not good kenya should establish an autonomous region in the boarder they have sued in the Hague