Sharp Decline in Terrorism in Kenya; Al-Shabaab Setbacks

Terror attacks against civillian and government targets in Kenya conducted by the Al-Qaeda terror group branch in East Africa Harakat al Shabaab al Mujahideen have declined substantially throughout year 2015.

Radical changes in the intelligence service (NIS) and the internal security ministry are core factors. The operations against extremsts in Kenya have been seen in the context of the strategy of the terror group.

Good leadership, decisions, strategies, and efficient human resources in both the police service under the Interior Ministry, and the National Intelligence Service largely contribute to the success against terrorism.

Counter Terrorism experts at Strategic Intelligence (SIS) and researchers are watching conditions that may factor Harakat al Shabaab al Mujahideen terror group transition to other forms of violence.

According to David James, the Director at SIS, “Terrorists campaigns will always come to an end, and often far more quickly than expected. Kenya’s counter terrorism strategies were redesigned in late 2014 and early 2015. As such, the success of the Kenya-CT Operations is how Al-Shabaab terrorist’s campaigns have met their demise over the past 8 months.”

The decline of Al-Shabaab in Kenya is a great story about countering violent extremism. The strategy not only destroys the terrorists leadership, but halts recruitment drives both on electronic and offline platforms, intercepting and arresting recruits enroute Somalia, destroying terrorists training bases, cells, and web-based cells.

However, most important is the governments resolve to remain steadfast. The decline in terrorism is not the end of terrorism, we, at Strategic Intelligence Service are monitoring all aspects of radicalization, recruitment and extremism through the terror group dynamics, attractions and politico-religious narratives.

Apart from keenly watching Al-Shabaab locally, we have invested our capabilities in terrorists Islamist movements and ideologies. Here, we look at the (Middle East and Africa MENA) regional and transnational dynamics of various conflict areas and the security implications for Kenya and East Africa.

David Goldman is an Intelligence Analyst. He holds a Bachelor of Counter Terrorism Security and Intelligence. Diploma in Journalism. Diploma in Bussiness English. Graduate Certificate in Intelligence & National Security.