Terrorism, Geopolitics, and Economic Recession will significantly affect the region in 2021, largely factored by COVID-19 and to a specific extent terrorism and geopolitical risks. Countries that will be significantly affected by terrorism in the region are Mozambique, DRC, Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania.
Terrorism
Mozambique will face a terrorism surge as ISCAP strength double. The group has recruited hundreds of new fighters from Tanzania, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, and Burundi. The terrorist group has also captured large caches of ammunition and weapons which it’s equipping new recruits with. The groups now has an optimal network structure with leaders taking up roles. The group now has a Daawa, military, media, recruitment, and logistics wings. The group is targeting to solidify it’s grip on Macimboa de Praia. ISCAP Mozambique continues to demonstrate significant tactical capabilities, strategic targeting, and territorial control. FADM has proved incapable of countering the extremists on the short term hence the group will pose a significant threat until that time local forces develop robust capacity to counter them.
Uganda will likely face ISCAP very low scale insurgency (sightings and movement) in North of Ruwenzori and South of Lake Albert. ISCAP debut was in Kamango area of Democratic Republic of the Congo, approximately 83 kilometers South West of Lake Albert where oil exploration by Tullow Oil has been ongoing.
In Kenya, terrorism will remain at low scale levels despite a surge along the border with Somalia. The Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia, Harakat al Shabaab al Mujahideen will continue to pose risks on the borderline line NEP area. The group will escalate outbidding operations to cut off state counter terrorism and intelligence capacity. There is a high risk of the group conducting attacks targeting civilians and foreigners through terror attacks in the interior, particularly the coastal area.
Tanzania will face similar challenges but from domestic cells loyal to ISCAP across the Rovuma. ISCAP Cells will launch low scale attacks in Mtwara and if successful, push the insurgency to Pwani and Mainland Tanzania. However, the flashpoints will remain along the banks of Rovuma. Old Al-Shabaab al Mujahideen cells have been activated to counter the growing influence of ISCAP in Tanzania, possibly to mute them like in Somalia.
DRC will face more challenges as ISCAP surges in Northern, Central, and Eastern Kivu. The cell has significantly increased its rank and file besides its capacity. The group continues to capture weapons and ammunition from FARDC besides territory. The group, in its latest info graphic indicated its plans to capture territories beyond Beni and project its influence south towards Lake Kivu.
Somalia remains the sick man of the East and Central Africa. It is the logistics hub for transnational terrorists. ISCAP continues to receive trainers from Abnaa ul Calipha, the ISIS affiliate in Somalia. The Extremists in the Araby are using Abnaa ul Calipha to send money and fighters to DRC and Mozambique. ISIS Somalia growth has been stunted over the past 3 years, however, it has tremendously grown between mid and end of 2020. The growth rate may remain constant in 2021 depending on the forays of the regional outfit.
The Al-Qaeda branch Harakat al Shabaab al Mujahideen will for the first time in 3 years attempt to siege the capital Mogadishu in a bid to capture control of the poor and conflict ridden Horn Country. The group controls large swathes of the country’s South, Central, and North. It is heavily armed and has a significantly large rank and file. It is Al-Qaeda most dangerous, reliable, and second most trusted branch.
Geopolitics
Kenya took up its position at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) as a non-permanent member for two years, 2021-2022 early January. This makes it retain its position as the most powerful country in the region. It is expected Nairobi will play a key role in entrenching multilateralism, building on the Blue Economy, Counter Terrorism, Security and AID.
Ethiopia continues to blindly flex its geopolitical muscle. The outcome is a constant flare of border conflicts in the region. Currently, Ethiopia is already in a military conflict with Sudan, and it’ll possibly get in one with Egypt. It’s meddling of Somalia sociopolitics has caused rifts within the ruling class in Mogadishu an event that has significantly degraded the relationship between Somalia’s weak administration with its key security and economic partner and neighbor, Kenya. Ethiopia has continued a bloody crackdown in Tigray province, killing innocent civilians and political leaders. Ethiopia continues this purge with help of neighboring Eritrea. However, the Tigray have staged a rebellion and continue to destroy both Ethiopian and Eritrean Military equipment, kill, and capture soldiers in a bloody uprising. The Ethiopian carelessness, swashbuckling, and poor hindsight makes it rank as the worst in Plato’s five regimes. If not reigned, Ethiopia is likely to face domestic political upheaval and subsequently fracture and badly fragment. The carelessness may also cause regional conflicts and constrict economic cooperation in the region. The country and its leadership are likely to face crimes against humanity and get charged with genocide. The leadership under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed continue to expose the landlocked country to subversion, domestic political and economic upheaval.
Tanzania is on course to dominate the lucrative sea and road transport business in East Africa with its massive road and rail network to Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, and DRC. All contracts up to completion have been awarded and significant progress made in the construction. Successful completion of the infrastructure network will see Tanzania depose Kenya as the gateway to East Africa. Kenya’s SGR project is yet to connect to Uganda and beyond besides yet to be attractive to the regional market. Such a downgrade will significantly hurt Kenya’s ranking and revenue sources.
Oil and gas in the region is yet to be exploited with both Kenya and Uganda still struggling to join the global oil production club. Somalia and Kenya will this year faceoff at the International Court of Justice over a contested oil and gas rich maritime triangle. Both lay claim to the triangle with Kenya having been the traditional owner. The disagreement maybe arbitrated out of court or by a ruling made at the ICJ.
