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Strategic Intelligence Service
Home Geopolitik

Russian Policies Risks a Middle East Conflagration

by David Goldman
January 22, 2015
Reading Time: 2 mins read
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Biting economic sanctions has compelled cash-strapped Russia to sell advanced S-400 Missiles to Iran. Intelligence sources also report that Russia is ready to sell advanced military hardware and weapon systems to Syria, Egypt and Hezbollah, the Iranian proxy in Lebanon. This feat has been facilitated by the military cooperation pact that was signed by Iran and Russia on January 20th, 2015.

Colonel General Leonid Ivashov stated that the pact would facilitate cooperation in both the economic and arms technology domains, and that Russia would probably deliver the advanced S-400 anti-aircraft weapon systems. The pact also gives the Russian navy access to Iranian ports, thus improving the prospects of Russia providing arms to the Syrian government – through Iranian channels – even if rebels capture strategic Syrian ports.

Intelligence assessments show that Iran and Russia are cooperating so as to impede further US intervention in the Middle East and also to insulate themselves from the noxious effects of Western sanctions. The US has strongly convinced European nations to withhold military wares from Russia as reprisal for Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its disruptive activities in Ukraine.

To date, Russia sidestepped confrontation with the US and always kept open various controlled exit hatches just in case a chance presents itself for renewing relationship with the US. One such hatch that united Russia and the US was the six power nuclear talks which aimed to defuse tensions created by Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

However, prospects of renewal of relations between the two geo-strategic powers receded when their relationship froze due to geopolitical and security wrangles which ultimately led to the gradual shutting down of the exit hatches.

In August 2014, Russia signed a Saudi-backed arms deal with Egypt thus locking the US out of the Egyptian military market. The US had criticized and even placed a partial arms embargo against the present Egyptian regime after the dethronement of the previous Muslim Brotherhood dominated government. A few days ago, Russia established itself as the principal supplier of sophisticated military wares to Iran thus defying the arms embargo placed on the Islamic Republic by the US.

Iran seeks to override US ambitions in the region by forming a supportive synergistic alliance with Russia that will mutually potentiate the strategic capacities of both nations. The alliance also seeks to standardize their common approach to terrorism, separatism and other national security threats posed by non-state actors. The current pact strengthens Iran’s position in the ongoing P5+1 nuclear talks by allowing the Iranians to better withstand American attempts to extract further concessions before a comprehensive accord is signed.

Both the S-300 and the S-400 air defense system have the capabilities of sullying an Israeli attempt to strike Iranian nuclear installations. Nonetheless, the Israeli Air Force has developed strategies to circumvent these air defense systems either aerially or through cyber resources. Moreover, Israeli intelligence agencies have been studying these air defense systems since their operational mechanisms and inner workings were exposed in Europe.

Intelligence sources confirm that Russia had delivered components of the S-300 batteries to Iran and Syria as installments awaiting the delivery of complete systems. Sources further confirm that last year, Russia had promised Hezbollah that it will consider providing military wares to it. This envisages a Russian policy which seeks to partially encircle Israel with a battery of Russian-built air defense systems that have the capacity to hinder the Israeli Air Force from conducting an effective aerial campaign.

Tags: aerial campaignair defense systemCrimeaHezbollahIranian portsIranian proxyIslamic RepublicIsraeli Air ForceMiddle East Conflagrationmilitary marketMuslim Brotherhoodnuclear installationnuclear talksP5+1Russian navyRussian PoliciesS-300S-400Saudi-backed arms dealUkraineUS intervention
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