Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Somalia, Mozambique, and DR-Congo): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists For September 2023

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

In September 2023, the threat posed by the Islamic State and its associated factions in East and Central Africa remained a cause for concern. Notably, the month witnessed a surge in attacks, particularly in Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo. These incidents were marked by a shift in tactics, with a growing reliance on Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) by the Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) in Mozambique, possibly reflecting changes in their operational capabilities.

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the death of ISCAP commander Meddie Nkalubo, also known as the “Punisher,” was a significant event, though ISCAP continued to display resilience and adaptability, carrying out various forms of violence and terrorism. This executive summary provides an overview of the key developments in the region during September 2023 and outlines essential recommendations to address the ongoing security challenges.

Incident Report:

MOZAMBIQUE

• 29^th Sep- ISM targeted a Mozambican troops patrol with an IED in Narere in Mocimboa da Praia district.
• 23^rd Sep- Over one hundred civilians have fled the village of Pangane in the Macomia district of Cabo Delgado as insurgents attempted to kidnap and coerce locals into joining their ranks.
• 23^rd Sep- ISM targeted Mozambican armed forces patrol with an IED on the road from Quiterajo to Cobre in the Macomia district.
• 23^rd Sep- ISM targeted Mozambican armed forces patrol with an IED on the road from Mbau to Limala in the Mocimboa da Praia district.
• 14^th Sep- ISM militants assaulted a Christian village in Nakwetengo in Mocimboa. The assault led to the deaths of at least 11 people.
• 11^th Sep- ISM targeted Mozambican armed forces patrol with an IED on the road from Mbau to Limala in the Mocimboa da Praia district.

THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

• 07th Sep- ISCAP militants led an armed assault along RN27, killing 18 in Irumu, Ituri province
• 08^th Sep- ISCAP militants led an armed assault along RN27, killing 18 in South Komanda in Ituri province.
• 10^th Sep- ISCAP conducted an armed assault on Bikamaibo, Mayalibo, and Kalongo villages in Oicha in North Kivu province.
• 12^th Sep- ISCAP insurgents attacked an environmental guards post in Okapi Wildlife Reserve in Mambasa district in Ituri.
• 18^th Sep- Militants carried out an armed assault on Idohu and Mambelenga Village, Along the Luna-Komanda Road (RN4), Ituri Province
• 20^th Sep- ISCAP Militants carried out an armed assault on the remote village of Kikingi, Ruwenzori Region, North Kivu.
• 24^th Sep- ISCAP militants led an armed assault on civilians in Bulema, Beni Region, North Kivu.
• 25^th Sep- ISCAP militants captured and executed a Congolese ‘spy’ in Kedidwe Village, Beni Region.
• 25^th Sep- ISCAP led an armed assault on Christians near the RN2 in Kasesa, Beni Region, North Kivu

ANALYSIS

MOZAMBIQUE

Municipal elections in MDP: In September, there was a significant increase in political violence events, with over twice as many incidents compared to the previous month despite the commencement of the municipal elections. Campaigning for the municipal elections scheduled for 11 October began in Mocímboa da Praia, without direct interference from Islamic State Mozambique (ISM). Despite the influx of displaced people into Mocímboa da Praia town, there was no apparent disruption to the campaigning, voting, and vote counting for the municipal elections. It’s unclear whether ISM’s goal was to disrupt the elections through displacement.

ISM attacks and threats in September led to the displacement of thousands of civilians. An attack in Naquitengue on 14 September caused over 2,000 people to flee, and additional displacement occurred in other villages.

ISM’s Continued Use of IEDs:

There were four incidents involving Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) mostly targeting military patrols in September, with two occurring in both southern Mocímboa da Praia and Macomia districts. ISM’s increasing use of IEDs reflects a shift in tactics, possibly due to a decrease in their fighter numbers and increased technical and tactical sophistication.

These IED attacks mark a significant departure from the insurgency’s typical small-arms assaults and are aimed at minimizing their own casualties while causing chaos and hindering the response of security forces. The use of IEDs has taken a psychological toll on Mozambican troops who lack training in countering this form of warfare.

The shift in tactics has allowed insurgents to engage better-trained and heavily armed international troops, particularly the Rwandan and SAMIM troops, who have become the primary targets of these roadside bombs. This marks a change in tactics as insurgents have traditionally avoided direct confrontations with such forces.

The shift to IEDs likely alludes to the insurgency’s dwindling numbers, eroded offensive capability, and lack of the resources to engage in traditional battles or resupply from looted arsenals. Thus, IEDs allow them to continue fighting without risking their fighters’ lives it can also be viewed as a strategy to conserve their strength, depleting security forces over time, and waiting for an opportunity to strike decisively in the future.

D.R. CONGO

Death of ISCAP commander; Meddie Nkalubo alias the Punisher:

The Congolese army announced the death of Meddie Nkalubo during air raids targeting ISCAP positions near the border with Uganda on the night of September 17. Meddie Nkalubo, also known as “Punisher,” was a prominent leader of ISCAP and he was presented as a key intermediary between the ISIS-Central and ISCAP, which has been responsible for numerous civilian deaths in various areas.

Nkalubo was described as an operator of the drone used by ISCAP fighters in various attacks, as well as a major manufacturer of homemade bombs. He played a significant role in the group’s use of IEDs. Nkalubo was involved in the dissemination of propaganda and instructional videos for the Islamic State group, as well as being responsible for filming and editing terrorist propaganda videos for the ISCAP.

Despite the reported deaths of leaders, the ISCAP has demonstrated resilience and reorganization, continuing to carry out activities such as murders, kidnappings, and recruitment of child soldiers in eastern Congo.

The death of Meddie Nkalubo represents a significant development in the ongoing conflict involving the ISCAP and its activities in the region.

Deradicalization of militants:

Uganda and DRC recently repatriated ex-combatants from ISCAP after a comprehensive deradicalization process. A total of 22 former Congolese rebels, originating from areas like Beni, Mambasa, and Irumu, were returned to the DRC after completing a six-month rehabilitation program. These individuals had either surrendered voluntarily or been captured during conflicts. The ex-rebels received psychosocial support and professional training in fields such as sewing, mechanics, and agriculture to help them reintegrate into civilian life.

In a reciprocal move, the DRC also handed over eight former rebels, including a woman, to Uganda. This marks the first instance of Congolese ISCAP members being repatriated following a deradicalization process

CONCLUSION RECOMMENDATIONS

The situation in East and Central Africa, particularly in Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo, remains highly volatile due to the activities of the Islamic State and its various factions. These groups continue to carry out attacks, targeting both civilians and security forces. The use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) is a growing concern, reflecting a tactical shift in their approach.

Counter-IED Training: Security forces especially in Mozambique should prioritize counter-IED training to effectively respond to this new threat. Training programs, potentially with the assistance of international partners, can help mitigate the impact of IED attacks.

Intelligence Sharing: Enhance intelligence sharing and coordination among regional and international security agencies to track and disrupt the activities of Islamic State factions. Timely and accurate intelligence is crucial in countering terrorism.

Deradicalization and Rehabilitation Programs: Efforts to deradicalize and rehabilitate former militants should be expanded. These programs can help prevent the recruitment of new fighters and reintegrate former combatants into society. The success of the Uganda-DRC repatriation and deradicalization initiative should serve as a model for similar efforts in the region.