Executive Summary

The Harakat Shabaab Al Mujahideen (HSM), popularly known as Al-Shabaab, an Al-Qaeda affiliate remain active in East Africa region, persistently waging attacks both in Somalia and in Kenya. The main target remains civilians, Somali troops, and African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) troops, besides other critical infrastructures and property. The militant activities sharply continue to surge with at least one to four attacks being recorded on a daily basis especially for central regions of Somalia.

Notably, Al-Shabaab has persistently scaled up attacks in central and southern Somalia. The group preferred attack types remain the use of IEDs (Landmines and roadside bombs), armed and ambush assaults are also becoming too common; being witnessed along roads citing their poor condition. Targeted assassinations are also common on urban areas of Somalia. Challenge of poor roads and vegetation, has seen Al-Shabaab are exploit these factors to plant roadside bombs/landmines besides conducting frequent ambush/surprise attacks on military convoys in Somalia.

Analysts at Strategic Intelligence (S.I) warns that the attack trend is expected to rise even in the coming days and as such all concerned counterterrorism assets to remain on high alert. Al-Shabaab has claimed a high operational tempo across Somalia exploiting the drought and hunger situation.  The Al-Qaeda associated group claim to have focused on Hiran, Bay, Banadir, Lower Shabelle, Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle regions and also in the capital Mogadishu.

In the first two weeks of November, at least 24 attacks have been recorded. The first week, at least 8 operations were recorded while on the second week under review surged with at least 16 attacks being recorded. Somalia recorded the highest number of operations. The third and fourth weeks of November witnessed a sharp surge in Al-Shabaab attacks, with over 40 attacks being recorded. At least one kidnapping operation in Mandera NEP have been recorded for Kenya, another key target of Al-Shabaab and another operation in Khorof Harar village of Wajir NEP.

Al-Shabaab’s attack levels slightly spiked in the month under review as compared to the past recent months. A total of about 65 claimed attacks, including direct attacks, IED attacks, Suicide attacks, ambush, assassinations or “special operations, on government convoys, and mortar attacks.  The full Al-Shabaab propaganda network, which includes hundreds of accounts and websites, focused on the most significant of those attacks in Qayeb, Xawaadley, Yaaq Bashar, Tardo, and Tarajante where they promoted photographic content of smoldering buildings, vehicle and equipment seized, and extremely graphic pictures of mutilated dead bodies of government and militia soldiers.

CT Brief: November 1^st – November 14^th

• On November 1^st, Somali militants suspected of being Al-Shabaab operatives set up an ambush in the Mandera Province, near the Kenya-Somalia border, and hijacked an ambulance with two paramedics, a driver, and a patient from the Lafey hospital, about 10 km northwest of the Kenya-Somalia border.
• On November 3^rd, Al Shabaab claimed it launched a surprise attack on the Ma’awisley in El Hareri, Aden Yabal district, Middle Shabelle region killing several.
• On November 4^th, IED Hits Mogadishu Deputy Major Ali Yare’s Convoy in Daynile Mogadishu, Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack saying it killed five soldiers and wounded three others.
• On November 6^th, Al-Shabaab claimed of a deadly SVIED attack on Somalia Special Military Forces ‘General Dughabdun Base’, dozens, in Wadajir District of Mogadishu, Somalia. Somali sources reported the attack killed 10 people and wounded 15 more.
• On November 7^th, Al-Shabaab VBIED targeting a Military Base killed more than 15 SNA troops in Qayeb village near Dhusamareb town, Galgudud region, Central Somalia.
• On November 7^th, Al-Shabaab militants injured two Somali government soldiers in an IED attack in Janale town, Lower Shabelle region, Southern Somalia.
• On November 7^th, Al-Shabaab militants attacked a Military Base operated by SNA outside, Baidoa town, Bay region, Southwestern Somalia.
• On November 7^th, Al-Shabaab operatives killed four SNA officers in an IED attack in Qayeb town, Galgudud region of Central Somalia
• On November 8^th, Al-Shabaab killed one SNA soldier and seized a Pika in an ambush raid on a military convoy in Mahas town, Hiran region, Central Somalia.
• On November 8^th, Al-Shabaab fighters claimed to have killed Two Ugandan (ATMIS) Forces in an IED attack while on Patrol in Barawe town, Lower Shabelle region, Southern Somalia.
• On November 9^th, Al-Shabaab injured Arbaska District Commander, Ahmed Ali Kari, with one of his bodyguards in an IED attack in Afgoye town, Lower Shabelle region, Southwestern Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On November 9^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have repelled two Somalian Forces attacks and killed an IED Expert while dismantling an IED in Mahas town, Hiran region, Central Somalia.
• On November 9^th, Al-Shabaab killed at least 10 SNA troops and injured over 20 others in two ambush gun attacks in Mahas town, Hiran region, Central Somalia.
• On November 9^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility of killing at least two SNA soldiers in an IED attack in Qayeb town, Galgadud region, Central Somalia.
• On November 10^th, Al-Shabaab killed five SNA soldiers, injured four others and seized their weapons in an ambush assault in Wabho town, Galgadud region, Central Somalia
• On November 10^th, Al-Shabaab ambushed a military base operated by Somali National Army (SNA) in Hawra, Mogadishu. Injuries reported.
• On November 10^th, Al-Shabaab claimed credit for an ambush operation on a military base operated by Somali troops in Baroli town, Kismayo City, Juba region, Southern Somalia. No details on casualties were provided.
• On November 10^th, Al-Shabaab assassinated a Somalian Forces Officer in Yaqshid district of Mogadishu.
• On November 10^th, Al-Shabaab injured a Somali officer in an IED attack in Tabilha District of Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On November 11^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed a Somalian soldier, injured others and destroyed a vehicle in an ambush in Balad City, Middle Shabelle region of Somalia.
• On November 11^th, Al-Shabaab assassinated the Head of Adado Court, Osman Ahmed Gedi, and seized his weapon near Azkabr town, Azazo town, Galgadud region of southern Somalia.
• On November 11^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Somalian Forces in an IED Attack on a Military Convoy in Wabho Town, Galgadud State, Central Somalia.
• On November 11^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for assassination a Ministerial Official, Abdel Aziz Muhammad Harsi, in Dharkenley, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On November 11^th, Al-Shabaab attacked a Somalia Special Forces Military Base killing and injuring more than 31 soldiers in Beledweyne town of Hiran region, Central Somalia.
• On November 12^th, Al-Shabaab and SNA troops clashed in the general vicinity of Halgan, Hiran region of Somalia. The armed gun fight that lasted for about an hour resulted in the death of 3 soldiers and a leader of the local groups fighting the AS.
• On November 12^th, Al-Shabaab Killed Two Somalian Forces and Injured Two Others in an IED Attack in Alisha and Assassinated a Somalian Forces Element in Wedo, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On November 12^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Somalian Forces and Seized Their Kalashnikov in an Ambush Near Odeqli, Lower Shabelle State, Southern Somalia.
• On November 12^th, Al-Shabaab Destroyed a Somalian Forces Vehicle and Killed and Injured Those on Board in an IED Attack in Afaar District, Bari State, Northeastern Somalia.
• On November 12^th, Al-Shabaab Regained Control of Wabho Town, Galgadud State, Somalia from the Somali government troops.
• On November 12^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Forces Commander, Abdullah Hussain, and Seized his Weapon in Daynile, Mogadishu, Somalia.

CT Brief: November 14^th – November 30^th

• On November 14^th, Al-Shabaab killed at least 10 Somalian Forces in an attack on a Military Base in Adkir Town, Galgadud region, Central Somalia.
• On November 16^th, Al-Shabaab injured a Somalian Forces soldier in an IED attack in Hodan, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On November 17^th, Al-Shabaab destroyed a Somalian Military Tank and killed and injured those on board in an IED attack in Lantaboro, Afgoye town, Lower Shabelle, Southwestern Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On November 17^th, Al-Shabaab ambushed Somalian Ministry of Defense Headquarters and injured two Forces in another attack on a Military target in the vicinity of Daynile, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On November 17^th, Al-Shabaab injured Three Somalian Forces in two IED attacks on one of their positions near Hanli Military position, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On November 18^th, Al-Shabaab ambushed Somalian Forces killing and injuring several in Arafat District, Yaqshid, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On November 18^th, Al-Shabaab Killed a Somalian Forces Commander and Injured a Forces Element in an IED Attack in Qohali District, Hiran State, Central Somalia.
• On November 19^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated Three Somalian Intelligence Elements, Injured Another and Seized Two Weapons in Bakara Market, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On November 19^th, Al-Shabaab Targeted a Ugandan Forces Convoy with an IED Near Shalanbood City, Lower Shabelle State, Southern Somalia.
• On November 19^th, Al-Shabaab Killed Three Somalian Forces and Injured Another in an IED Attack on a Foot Patrol in Janale town Lower Shabelle State, Southern Somalia.
•  On November 19^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Forces Element on the Road Between Afgoye and Wanlaweyn towns, Lower Shabelle State, Southern Somalia.
• On November 20^th, Al-Shabaab claimed IED attack on convoy, injuring SNA 8th Brigade commander, Maxamed Dheere and another officer, Axmed Liibi in Daynuunaay-Beydhabo, Bay region of Somalia.
• On November 21^st, Al-Shabaab Killed More Than Seven Somalian Forces and Seized Their Weapons in an Attack on Their Gathering in Zabid Town, Afgoye City, Southwestern Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On November 21^st, Al-Shabaab Injured Two Somalian Forces, Including an Officer, in an IED Attack in Janale town, Lower Shabelle State, Southern Somalia.
• On November 21^st, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Forces Officer Named, Gharba Gouf, in Daynile Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On November 21^st, Al-Shabaab claimed attack on government forces, killing 7, and seizing 3 AK-47s, 2 handguns, and 2 machine guns, and 2 long-range rifles in vicinity of Sabiid, Lower Shabelle region.
• On November 22^nd, Al-Shabaab Ambushed Ugandan and Somalian Military Bases in Qaryorey, Janale and Lafole, Lower Shabelle region, Southern Somalia.
•  On November 22^nd Al-Shabaab Killed a Somalian Forces Element and Injured Another in an IED Attack in Nour Dakli District, Middle Shabelle region, Southern Somalia.
• On November 22^nd Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Prominent Politician, Muhammad Hussain Sabri, in Wadjir, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On November 22^nd Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Somalian Special Forces and Destroyed a Vehicle in an Attack on a Military Convoy in Yaq Bashar District, Kismayo City, Juba region, Somalia.
• On November 23^rd, Al-Shabaab Attacked a Military Base and a Checkpoint in Bidoa and Kismayo Cities, Bay and Juba region, Southern Somalia.
• On November 23^rd Al-Shabaab Targeted Ugandan Bombing Experts with an IED in Hawa Abdi District, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On November 23^rd Al-Shabaab Targeted a Police Commander Who Survived the Attack and Injured His Guard in an IED Attack in Barawe Lower Shabelle region, Somalia.
• On November 23^rd Al-Shabaab ambushed Kenyan Military Base in Arabia, Mandera, Northeastern Kenya. No casualties were reported.
• On November 23^rd Al-Shabaab assassinated a Somalian Forces Element in Daynile, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On November 23^rd, Al-Shabaab attack on Jubaland forces, injuring the commanding officer in general vicinity of Dariq Bridge, on the outskirts of Kismayo in the Lower Jubba region, southern Somalia.
• On November 24^th, Al-Shabaab Killed a Somalian Forces soldier and injured another in an IED Attack in Garbahaarrey, Gedo region, Southwestern Somalia.
• On November 24^th, Al-Shabaab temporarily seized Tabto Town after Somalian Forces escaped to the Kenyan operated Military Base in Balbada, Juba region. Southern Somalia.
•  On November 24^th, Al-Shabaab claimed an attack on Somali forces position that began with SVIED inflicting heavy losses including 43 dead and 51 more injured, seizing weapons and equipment, and taking control of the Qayeb locality, Galgadud region Central Somalia.
• On November 25^th, Al-Shabaab fighters seized control over Somalian Forces Military Base in Daynunay town after the Forces escaped in Baidoa town, Bay region, Southwestern Somalia.
• On November 25^th, suspected Al-Shabaab attempted raid on KDF patrol team reported in general vicinity of Khorof Harar, Wajir NEP Kenya. No casualties were reported.
• On November 26^th, Al-Shabaab Targeted a Somalian Forces Checkpoint with IED in Beledweyne town, Hiran region, Central Somalia.
• On November 26^th, Al-Shabaab fighters ambushed a Somalian Military Base in Qansahdhere town, Bay region, Southwestern Somalia.
• On November 26^th, Al-Shabaab injured Five Somalian Forces in a Missiles attack on Their Military Base in Afgoye town of Lower Shabelle, Southwestern Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On November 26^th, Al-Shabaab claimed an IED attack on Gorgor, damaging/injuring a large truck of soldiers in Ceelasha Biyaha, Lower Shabelle Region, Somalia.
• On November 27^th, Al-Shabaab Gunmen Stormed Villa Rose Hotel, Mogadishu, Somalia.  At least 10 people killed and scores wounded in SVBIED strengthened with gunfire.
• On November 28^th, Al-Shabaab Militants detonated a Roadside IED targeting Somalian Special Forces, Killing 12, in Ailsha area of Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On November 28^th, in an attack which took place on a roadblock on the outskirts Siinka Dheer, Afgoye, Lower Shabelle, the Al-Shabaab Mujahideen targeted a convoy of government soldiers. Two soldiers killed, one captured later executed.
• On November 29^th, Al-Shabaab Targeted Kahda Administration Secretary with an IED attack on his vehicle, Who Survived the assassination attempt, in Kahda, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On November 29^th, Al-Shabaab killed at least a Somalian soldier and seized two weapons and a motorcycle in an ambush raid in Ali Gaduud Town, Middle Shabelle region, Southern Somalia.
• On November 30^th, Al-Shabaab militants assassinated the SFG’s head of the Displaced Persons Charity in Daynile district, Mogadishu.

Assessment/Observations & Insights

Al-Shabaab threats remain persistent in Somalia and her neighbor Kenya. Al-Shabaab sharpened skills cannot be downplayed and have been seen by the way the group has been able to successfully conduct surveillance on its target in a view to ascertain the target vulnerability and subsequent actual operation following.

Counterterrorism operators at Strategic Intelligence (S.I) have warned of Al-Shabaab morphed outfit whose intent to conduct multiple attacks in both Kenya and Somalia on short-term remains the terror group’s most yearning goal.

There is notable ability of the terrorists to move to the center of the capital, do assassinations, plant IEDs, lay ambush attacks and even detonate SVBIEDs in Military FOBs, near security checkpoints and military convoys target is worrying and can be viewed as Al-Shabaab’s new strategy to counter current security measures in the capital besides demonstrating their sharpened skills. 

Somalia also announced it had deactivated hundreds of media sites it said were propagating Al-Shabaab narratives, in the latest clampdown on violent extremism. Similarly, Somali government had warned businesses and locals against financing Al-Shabaab through paying of levies.

In a new report, made public this month, U.N. experts say the terrorist group is seeking more funds to pay about $1 million per month in salaries to its fighters. The report says despite Somalia’s crackdown on Al-Shabaab, the militants are also able to move funds through local and Islamic banks. Cutting off Al-Shabaab’s funding is key to winning the war against the Islamist militants.

Apart from information delivery, it is widely believed that the jihadist group also uses the sites and accounts to attract more supporters, loyalists including youths who are lured to join the Al-Qaeda-linked movement. However, its notable despite the direction to shut these websites down and other online platforms, a number of pro-jihadist’s platforms are still-on, promoting jihadist content.

Notably, the group’s flexibility as well as its focus on individual accounts and messaging at the tactical level allowed it to dominate the online media landscape in the month under review and drown out government narratives. As the Somali government increases pressure on Al-Shabaab’s territory, the group is looking for new ways to maintain its control of the information environment and undermine government narratives, including by regularly soliciting views from its social media and radio followers.  Al-Shabaab’s new approach demonstrates its willingness to learn and adapt, and even to fail (in the case of potentially having linked accounts de-platformed) in order to do so.  To compete, the Somali government and international community must adopt a similarly flexible and dynamic strategy.

Read: Government of Somalia’s War on Terror in Hiraan and the Outbidding Operations by Al-Shabaab Terrorist.

Hiran is a region in central Somalia that has seen a spike in Al-Shabaab violence after local uprising against the group has gained momentum in the region. In the first two weeks of November, Al-Shabaab has conducted several attacks targeting on military assets including FOBs and their convoys. The clashes have left several Somalian soldiers killed as well as local fighters supporting government troops in the battle against the Islamist militants.

Al-Shabāab al-Mujāhideen Terrorists continue conducting more demonstrative terror attacks persistently in an effort to outmatch and outbid Somali Security Forces. The repeated attacks in Qiyaab FOB in Galgadud, Central Somalia, demonstrates terror groups resilience in the battlefield.  Of notable concern in these raids is huge heavy weapons, explosives, and ammo besides vehicles the terror group continues to acquire significantly high number of weapons from these raids on Somali Army.

Conclusion

Counterterrorism (CT) operators in East Africa region and broadly those operating under AMISOM mandate must remain on high alert, to upscale surveillance on their respective areas of responsibility (AoR)/sectors especially in Somalia. Collaboration between citizenry of individual countries encouraged in an effort to share intelligence besides intercept and thwart terrorist activities.

It is also the primary responsibility of any country to provide basic security to its citizenry. The government should take additional security measures. Measures include additional installation of surveillance cameras, scanners, security barriers, and enhancing visible policing. Despite persistent and relentless target by the Islamist Al-Shabaab, Kenya counterterrorism agencies/operators lauded for their robust CT approach especially along the porous border with Somalia significantly stemming down their activity significantly.