Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of July 1st – July 31st, 2022: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

The Harakat al Shabaab al Mujahideen (HSM), commonly known as Al-Shabaab is an Al-Qaeda affiliate threatening the security and stability of East Africa region. The extremist militant group with its home-base in Somalia continue to wage attacks against both soft and hard targets. The militant group has capitalized on political instability of Somalia to wage persistent attacks on security forces, government officials and civilian targets.

The Islamist militant group also continue to sporadically target Kenyan security forces especially in northeastern and coastal counties bordering Somalia as retaliatory for the county’s troops being part of African Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), and a number of incidents have been recorded for Ethiopia, another ATMIS troops contributor.   

The attacks continue to especially in Somalia ranging from low to large scale attacks.  In the month of July 2022, the militant group has conducted about 62 attacks from across the East Africa region, with Somalia recording the highest number of these attacks. In Somalia, Al-Shabaab has conducted lethal attacks that targeted on military FOBs and also on busy establishments such as the markets and restaurants.

A steady number of Al-Shabaab operations have been witnessed in the past number of months, ranging from 50 to over 60 attacks. Notable attacks have been conducted against military positions on Somalia-Ethiopia border where Al-Shabaab has claimed responsibility for a number of operations. The militant group has conducted attacks in Aato, Yeed and Washaago all in Bakool region of Somalia, also targeting Ethiopian troops’ base besides attacking a police station in El-Berde. The militant group via its propaganda media though exaggerated its operation saying it had overrun the base and killed over 100 Ethiopian police. Al-Shabaab may have suffered tactical defeats during its recent offensive in eastern Ethiopia, but these recent operations represents a major strategic shift.

A number of low-scale attacks have also been recorded for Kenya especially along the border counties with Somalia. Insignificant though threatening probes have been recorded targeting Kenyan security operators as well on civilians in the counties of Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu. Terrorist related kinetic activity slightly increased in the July-four weeks under review. Ambush raids, IEDs and suicide operations have become frequent mode of attacks by the Islamists Al-Shabaab and also use of direct gun attacks to maximize on casualties.

The militant group now is keen on disrupting the frontier counties (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu) by planting IEDs on main roads an effort to target security assets on patrol missions. CT operators need to steep up security in the aforementioned counties citing the militants might want to disrupt the coming general elections. It imminent that threats posed by Al-Shabaab militants in Kenya’s Frontier NEP remains persistent. However, credit must be accorded to the robust CVE and CT Operations witnessed gradually foiling and degrading the threat. Notably, threats on Kenya interior remains low but security forces/operation must not relax guard rather they should remain on high alert. Sharing on actionable intelligence timely also much encouraged.

AS Recently Claimed Attacks:

July 1^st – July 14^th

• On July 1^st, Al-Shabaab militants claimed to have detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) targeting a US-trained Danab Special Forces convoy near Mahaday, Jowhar district, Middle Shabelle region, south-central Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed the IED killed three soldiers and wound five others. The convoy was traveling from El-Baraf to Mahaday.
• On July 2^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed to have assassinated a foreign Embassy Staffer in Mogadishu.
• On July 2^nd, a roadside bomb claimed by Al-Shabaab exploded on the outskirts of Marka (Merca), capital of Lower Shebelle region. The blast targeted a security personnel convoy, killing at least five Ugandan troops from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and wounding an unknown number more.
• On July 2^nd, Al-Shabaab Claimed to have a brief Raid on Military Base in Kenya’s Garissa County, NEP but no casualties were reported.
• On July 3^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed to have detonated an IED targeting the Hiraan regional governor’s convoy in Mataban, Beledweyne district, Hiraan region, central Somalia.  Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed three soldiers.
• On July 6^th, Roadside bomb kills 2 police officers in Afgoye town, Lower Shabelle, about 30kms south of the Somali capital. Two others wounded as per police reports.
• On July 6^th, a man who served close to 16 years in an Italian prison, identified as Omar Hashi Hassan was killed by a bomb attached to his car in Mogadishu’s Dharkenley district. Al-Shabab militants claimed responsibility.
• On July 6^th, Al-Shabaab militants claimed responsibility for detonating two IEDs targeting the Somali Ministry of Foreign Affairs building in Wadajir district, Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab claimed the IED wounded three guards.
• On July 6^th, Shabaab Claimed an IED Bombing on Kenyan Military Convoy in Garissa, NEP Kenya. No details on casualties were provided.
• On July 8^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to detonate an improvised explosive device (IED) targeting likely US-trained Danab forces vehicle IVO Weydow district, Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab claimed that the attack killed three soldiers and wounded two others.
• On July 14^th, Al-Shabaab militants raided a Somali National Army (SNA) base in Janale, Marka district, Lower Shabelle region, southern Somalia. SNA claimed to have repelled the attack.

July 14^th – July 31^st

• On July 15^th, two prominent elders from Galmudug regional state were assassinated by suspected Al-Shabaab gunmen armed with pistols in the Somalia capital Mogadishu.
• On July 16^th, three construction workers injured in Mandera IED attack. The three workers were driving towards Wargadud when their vehicle ran over an IED believed to have been planted by Al-Shabaab operatives injuring them.
• On July 17^th, Deputy chief of NISA commander in Galmudug state, Colonel Farah Omar, killed by suspected Al-Shabaab assassins at Abudwak District in central Somalia.
• On July 17^th, Al-Shabaab militants detonated a suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) targeting Hirshabelle State officials in Hotel Shabelle, Jowhar, Middle Shabelle region, south-central Somalia. The SVBIED killed three people and wounded seven others, including two regional ministers as per local sources.
• On July 18^th, A huge explosion targeting ATMIS soldiers was reported in the heart of Mogadishu, around Ali Kamin junction the morning hours. Eyewitnesses said an IED explosion hit one of the AU’s vehicles, resulting in casualties.
• On July 20^th, Al-Shabaab terror group claimed responsibility for attack villages near Ethiopia border killing 17 Ethiopian police officers around the towns of Aato and Yeed in southwestern Bakool region of Somalia.
• On July 20^th, Al-Shabaab raided El Barde and reportedly cut off communications in the area before conducting attacks in Aato and, Washaqo Yeed villages in Bakool region of Somalia that targeted security positions. Liyu police station was attacked in one raid.
• On July 22^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for IED explosion that targeted ATMIS-Djiboutian troops and SNA troops in the general vicinity of Bulo Burde (Bula Buurte) Hiran region of Somalia killing at least three soldiers and wounding four others.
• On July 23^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an armed assault against Ministry of Defense building from different directs in the capital Mogadishu. No details on casualties were provided.
• On July 23^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed to have targeted a residence belonging to SNA soldier in Ali Ganey neighborhood of Heliwaa Mogadishu. Two wounded in a brief grenade assault.
• On July 23^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed credit for hurling hand grenades on house belonging to a Federal govt soldier in in Kaabo Godey neighborhood in Dharkenley district of Mogadishu.
• On July 23^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for coordinated bomb attack in the general vicinity of KPP intersection in Hodan district of Mogadishu that left four SNA soldiers killed and three others wounded in the explosion.
• On July 25^th, Al-Shabaab probe was foiled as the militants attempted to cross the Ethiopian-Somali border in Las Qurun near the border town Ferfer. No casualties were reported from the brief incident.
• On July 26^th, Somali militant group of Al-Shabaab claimed the killing of two Kenyan soldiers and wounding 3 others in an overnight armed attack at El-Rhamu base in Mandera county.
• On July 26^th, a team of Kenya security forces survived an IED along the Fino-Sheikh Barrow Road in the general vicinity of El Rhamu, Mandera county.
• On July 27^th, Bomb blasts in southern Somalia kill at least 20. Suicide bombing killed at least 20 people, including the town’s mayor, Abdullahi Ali Wafow, plus 10 security guards and civilians in the vicinity of Merca (Marka), Lower Shabelle.
• On July 27^th, a bomb exploded at a busy livestock market in the town of Afgoye, Lower Shabelle. Police say the attack was a landmine explosion. Eyewitnesses and medical sources in Afgoye said the IED blast killed seven people and wounded 14 others.
• On July 27^th, Al-Shabaab vehicle-borne IED exploded that was aimed to target security troops detonated prematurely in the general vicinity of Mogadishu’s Dharkenleey district killing at least two fighters who were on the process of making the VBIED.
• On July 29^th, Al-Shabaab conducted a complex suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) attack targeting Somali Region Liyu police at Aato, El Barde district, Bakool region, southwestern Somalia. Al-Shabaab propaganda media claimed the fighters overrun the police positions and killed 10 Liyu police and wounding 20 others.
• On July 29^th, An Al-Shabaab suicide bomber assassinated a South West State minister IVO Baidoa, Bay region, southwestern Somalia. The bomber detonated a suicide vest as the minister was leaving a Mosque after Friday prayers. The explosion also killed 10 other people, including bodyguards and civilians.
• On July 30^th, In NEP Kenya, the Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Shabāab conducted low grade attacks & subsequently claimed success. In all the probing attacks using Chinese Type 56 AKM’s resulted in 0-casualties.
• On July 31^st, Al-Shabaab terrorists publicly execute 7 in Somalia on allegation of spying. The seven men who included one soldier in South West state were executed by Shabaab firing squad in Buula Fulay in the Bay region, as witnessed by many bystanders.

Assessment/Observations & Insights

Threat assessment continue to be skewed towards military operating bases and their patrols convoys besides military convoys on supply missions especially for Somalia. Most of the raids against the targets are notably ambushes and setting up of roadside IEDs with a number of repeat attacks being recorded. Assassination attempts on key officials also witnessed in Mogadishu and its environs as well as resumption of suicide operations.

Persistent attacks on SNA and ATMIS. military bases in Somalia underline the persistent threat posed by al-Shabaab, the Al-Qaeda affiliate in East Africa. Attacks on military bases have largely been VBIEDs signifying the group’s growing confidence to attacks on heavily fortified areas. The bomb attacks are strengthened by indiscriminate gunfire from group’s foot soldiers.

Thus, Al-Shabaab has continued its pattern of violence, however, attacking government installations and buildings in the smaller towns and other areas. The group has assassinated senior government officials and politicians, and kidnapped foreigners, including aid workers. It has employed the use of roadside IEDs, VBIEDs, and suicide bombers to disrupt life in the town and southern Somalia and also sporadically targeting Kenya-Somalia border prefectures.

The group’s objective and goal remain unchanged. Through its insurgency, Al-Shabaab militant group is seeking to destabilize and overthrow the Federal Government of Somalia, with the aim of installing a government based on sharia (Islamic law).  Beyond these attacks, Al-Shabaab continues to implement some forms of taxation, such as the collecting fines.  The group is offering judicial services in the areas under its control, as well as in areas still under government administration.

Notably, the group is in mourning after its parent leader, Ayman al Zawahiri, the leader of Al-Qaeda was last week (30^th July 2022) killed in a CIA drone strike in Kabul Afghanistan. Al-Shabaab which is an affiliate of Al-Qaeda after it pledged allegiance over a decade ago may conduct attacks against US interests and allies and as such counterterrorism assets from US, Kenya and larger East Africa urged to be on high alert.    

Now with Al-Qaeda emir (leader) killed in US drone strike, we await who will assume the leadership to the Al-Qaeda terrorist network with its affiliates.  However, in the latest UN Security Council report, it provided insight on Al-Qaeda’s possible line of succession. Will it be Saif al Adel, the longtime Al-Qaeda leader and war veteran, who is second behind Zawahiri. Next in line are Abdal-Rahman al-Maghrebi a native Moroccan who is Zawahiri’s son-in-law, a top Al-Qaeda leader, Yazid Mebrak, the emir of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, and Ahmed Diriye, the leader of Al-Shabaab, which is Al-Qaeda’s affiliate in East Africa.

Conclusion

Its primary goals of security and intelligence operators East Africa region to capitalize heavily on countering the return of violent extremism and terrorism to ensure the terror groups do not outbid them besides extending foothold in other areas. Concerted CT efforts from all concerned actors/partners much encouraged now Al-Shabaab seek to conduct retaliatory attacks citing their key leader of Al-Qaeda is dead.

Al-Shabaab is full of accomplished insurgents, and to ensure the group does not begin to regain traction, the coalition/CT operators need to mount and scaleup a disciplined and coherent counterinsurgency campaign in support of the weak Federal Government of Somalia and also stem down persistent attack trends witnessed in Kenya’s NEP counties (Mandera, Wajir and Garissa and Coastal Lamu county.

An after-action review (AAR) on suspected Al-Shabaab camps in sub sectors of south and central Somalia also highly recommended. Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continue to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activity in the East Africa regions and warns of consistent militant’s increased activity. 

The militant’s intentions to strike on hard targets (security forces) in Somalia and in Kenya and also on other East Africa country’s remains the militant’s ultimate goal. Joint CT and COIN actors should not relent on mounting concerted military pressuring on the Islamist groups in an effort to guard counter-terrorism gains so far made in the region.