Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of January 1st – January 31st, 2023: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

The Harakat Shabaab Al Mujahideen (HSM), also known as Al-Shabaab, is an Islamist militant group based in Somalia that has been active for over two decades. The group has pledged allegiance to Al-Qaeda and is considered to be a terrorist organization by several countries and international organizations.

Al-Shabaab has been able to persistently wage attacks both in Somalia and in neighboring Kenya, despite the efforts of the Somali government and its foreign partners to combat the group. The group has been able to carry out a wide range of attacks, including bombings, assassinations, and kidnappings, targeting both military and civilian targets.

The group has been able to carry out these attacks despite the presence of African Union peacekeeping forces and the efforts of the Somali government to combat the group, which suggests that the group has a strong level of operational capability and resilience. In the month under review, the Islamist militant group claimed responsibility for over 90 attacks. This is a notable sharp spike as compared to last year December 2022 where about 60 attacks were recorded for Somalia and Kenya.

The group’s targeting of military bases and convoys suggest that they are able to gather intelligence on the movements and activities of security forces, and are able to launch attacks with a high degree of precision. The targeting of government officials and civilians indicates that the group is able to operate effectively within urban areas and has the capability to conduct complex attacks, such as the use of suicide bombings.

It is important to note that Al-Shabaab’s goal is to establish an Islamic caliphate in Somalia, and to that end, the militant group has been able to secure a significant amount of territory in the country, and has been able to maintain a level of control over local communities especially in central and southern regions of Somalia.

CT Brief: January 1^st – January 15^th

• On January 2^nd, Al-Shabaab Attacked Somalian and Ugandan Forces in Qoryorey and Shalanmboud, Arbao and Sinkadheere, Lower Shabelle Regions, Southern Somalia.
• On January 2^nd, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Kenyan Forces and Destroyed Their Vehicle in an Attack on a Military Base in Haghrboul, Garissa, NEP Kenya.
• On January 2^nd, Al-Shabaab abducted 20 Hawadle civilians from Beledweyne district, Hiran region, central Somalia.
• On January 3^rd, Al-Shabaab Killed Four Somalian Forces in an Attack on a Military Base in 60 kms District, Lower Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On January 3^rd, Al-Shabaab Attacked Somalian Military Base in Dinsoor City, Bay Region, Southwestern Somalia.
• On January 3^rd, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Somalian Forces in Attacks on a Military Base with IED in Karan, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 3^rd, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Kenyan Forces in an Attack on Their Convoy with IED Between Kiunga and Shanghani Districts, Lamu, Kenya.
• On January 4^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Forces Element in Wedo District and Targeted a Military Checkpoint with Two IEDs in Harwa, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 4^th, Al-Shabaab Killed a Somalian Forces Element and Injured Another in Two IED Attacks in Afgoye City, Southwestern Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 4^th, Al-Shabaab Shelled Ugandan and Somalian Forces with Missiles in 60 Kms Area and Ambushed a Military Base in Zabid Town in Lower Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On January 4^th, A Harwa Official Survived an Assassination Attempt, Killed One of His Guards and Injured Three Others in an IED Attack in Harwa, Mogadishu, Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility.
• On January 4^th, Al-Shabaab Damaged a Somalian Forces Element and a Bulldozer in Two Attacks on a Gathering and a Position in Kismayo, Juba, Southern Somalia.
• On January 4^th, Al-Shabaab detonated two suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices in Mahas, Bulo Burde district, Hiran region, central Somalia. The explosions killed at least 20 people.
• On January 4^th, Al Shabaab claimed to overrun a local militia base in Duduna’ad, Goobo area, Beledweyne district, Hiran region.  Local officials claimed al Shabaab only controlled the area for a brief period and destroyed a water well the government dug in December.
• On January 6^th, Al-Shabaab Ambushed a Somalian Military Base Killing and Injuring Several in Amaska District, Yaqshid, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 6^th, Al-Shabaab Killed a Somalian Forces Element, Injured Another and Seized His Kalashnikov in an Ambush at Baidoa City Gate, Bay Region, Southwestern Somalia.
• On January 6^th, Al-Shabaab Attacked a Kenyan Christian Village in Witu town, Coastal County of Lamu, Kenya.
• On January 6^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Somalian Forces and Destroyed Their Vehicle in an IED Attack in Ronraghoud, Haloli Ghab, Middle Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On January 6^th, Al-Shabaab Injured Two Somalian Forces and Destroyed a Vehicle in an Attack on Their Gathering on Juba River Near Bologaduud Town, Juba City, Southern Somalia.
• On January 6^th, Al-Shabaab conducted a complex suicide raid targeting a Somali National Army (SNA) and local militia camp in Hilowle Gaab, El Dheere district, Galgadud region, south-central Somalia. Al-Shabaab used multiple suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (SVBIEDs) to begin the attack.
• On January 7^th, Al-Shabaab Killed a Somalian Forces and Injured Another in an IED Attack in Mahas, Hiran Region, Somalia.
• On January 7^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Somalian Forces in Attacks on 3 Military Bases in Baidoa and Afgoye, Bay and Lower Shabelle Regions, Southern Somalia.
• On January 7^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Forces Element in Tabilha District, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 8^th, Al-Shabaab Attacked Somalian, Ethiopian and Kenyan Forces in Harwa, Dinsoor, Wajid and Tabto in Mogadishu, Banadir, Bay, Bakool and Juba, Somalia.
• On January 8^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Forces Element in Dharkenley, Mogadishu.
• On January 8^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated Two Somalian Forces in Harwa and Afgoye, Banadir and Lower Shabelle Regions, Southern Somalia.
• On January 9^th, Al-Shabaab Fighters Killed Three ATMIS-Ugandan Forces and Injured Others in an Attack on a Ugandan Military Base with Missiles in 60Kms District, Lower Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On January 9^th, Al-Shabaab Targeted General Gordon Military Base with IED in Hodan, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 9^th, Al-Shabaab Killed Three Ugandan Forces and Injured Another in an Ambush on Their Convoy with IED Near Dano, Qarioli, Lower Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On January 9^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Colonel, Abrahim Ali Asandi, and Two Somalian Forces in Yaqshid, Tabliha and Taridshi Districts, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 9^th, Al-Shabaab attacked Duduna’ad village, Beledweyne district, Hiran region, central Somalia. Local Ma’awisley defended the village after finding out al Shabaab was heading to the village to burn down a well.
• On January 10^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have Ambushed a Kenyan Military Base in Ail Kalo District, Mandera, NEP Kenya. No casualties were reported.
• On January 11^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Forces Element in Dharkenley, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 11^th, Al-Shabaab Shelled a Somalian Military Base with Missiles in Janale town, Lower Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On January 11^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for Targeting a Somalian Forces’ Gathering in Beledweyne town, Hiran Region, Somalia.
• On January 11^th, Al-Shabaab Roadside IED Killed 4 Highway Authority Workers in Hailey, Bura East, Garissa County NEP Kenya.
• On January 11^th, Al-Shabaab Targeted a Somalian Forces Gathering in an IED Attack in Beledweyne town, Hiran Region, Somalia.
• On January 12^th, Al Shabaab raided a village and killed more than 300 livestock near Mahas, Bulo Burde district, Hiran region, central Somalia. The attack was reportedly in retaliation for local cooperation with government forces
• On January 12^th, Al-Shabaab Injured a Somalian Forces Element in an IED Attack on a Military Base in Elwak City, Gedo Region, Southwestern Somalia.
• On January 12^th, Al-Shabaab Attacked Somalian Forces Positions and Barracks in Wardeqili, Mogadishu, Baidoa, Gufgaduud Bori and Afgoye, Banadir, Bay, Lower Shabelle Regions, Somalia.
• On January 12^th, Al Shabaab attacked government employees in Mogadishu’s Dharkenley district on their way to an anti-al Shabaab rally. Al-Shabaab militants threw at least two grenades and shot at two vehicles. Casualties reported.
• On January 13^th, Al-Shabaab Killed Three Somalian Forces and Injured Seven Others in Two IED Attacks on Somalian Forces Vehicles in Bolo Hobi District, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 13^th, Al-Shabaab Attacked Somalian Gatherings and Seized “Muhammad Hassan” District that is 30 km Away from Beledweyne town, Hiran Region, Somalia.
• On January 13^th, Al-Shabaab Killed Two Ugandan Forces in an IED Attack on a Military Convoy in Shalambood City, Lower Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On January 14^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Forces Commander, Moamen Almi Sunni, in al-Baraka District, Hodan, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 14^th, one person was killed and at least six others injured in a suicide car bombing at a checkpoint manned by Somali government troops in Jalalaqsi and Bulobarde towns in Hiran region of central Somalia.

CT Brief: January 15^th – January 31^st

• On January 15^th, Al-Shabaab Triple VBIED Kills 8 in Jalalaqsi and Buloburde, Hiran Region, Hirshabelle Region of Somalia.
• On January 16^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have targeted a local militia checkpoint in Halgan, Bulo Burde district, on January 16, killing a regional police chief.
• On January 16^th, Al-Shabaab Executed a Jubaland Alleged Spy and a Somalian Police Element in Gamami City, Juba Region, South Somalia.
• On January 16^th, Al-Shabaab Attacked an ATMIS-Ugandan Operated Military Base in 60 Km District, Lower Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On January 16^th, Al-Shabaab Attacked Two Kenyan Forces in Qarfahrar and Qarso, Wajir, Northeastern Kenya.
• On January 16^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Somalian Forces in an IED Attack in Darkinli, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 16^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Forces Element and Injured Another in Two Attacks in Harwa and Tridshi, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 16^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Kenyan Forces and Destroyed 9 Vehicles in an IED Ambush on the Road Between Egari and Boday Cities, Lamu, Kenya.
• On January 16^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Somalian Forces in an IED Attack in Darkinli, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 17^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Kenyan Forces in an IED Attack on a Military Patrol in Wilmarir Town and Roki Village, Garissa, Northeastern Kenya.
• On January 17^th, Al-Shabaab Kills Seven Somalian Forces in Suicide Car Bomb Attack on a Somalian Military Base in Hawadley Town, 60 Kms from Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 17^th, Al-Shabaab Claimed a Second IED Attack on Highway Authority Workers in a Week in Bondhei, Lamu County, Kenya.
• On January 18^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Forces Officer in Dadabo Town, Sanaag Region, Northern Somalia.
• On January 18^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Three Somalian Forces in Senglar District, Kismayo City, Juba Region, Southern Somalia.
• On January 18^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Somalian Forces in an IED Attack in Darkinli, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 18^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Somalian Forces in Harderi City, Mudug Region, Somalia.
• On January 18^th, Al-Shabaab Ambushed a Somalian Convoy Between Balaad and Hawadli in Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 18^th, Al-Shabaab Attacked Four Ugandan, Kenyan and Somalian Military Bases in Bolomarir, Dinsoor and Tabto, Lower Shabelle, Bay and Juba Regions, Southern Somalia.
• On January 18^th, Al-Shabaab Injured Two Somalian Forces in an IED Attack in Lagh District, Bosaso City, Bari Region, Northeastern Somalia.
• On January 18^th, Al-Shabaab Destroyed a Kenyan Forces Vehicle and Killed Those on Board in an IED Attack Between Holoqa and Galmgala Cities in Garissa, Northeastern Kenya.
• On January 19^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Police Officer, Leban Muhammad Hashi, in Karan, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 19^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured ATMIS-Ugandan Forces and Destroyed Their Military Vehicle in an IED Attack in Ail Warigho, Marka, Lower Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On January 19^th, Al-Shabaab Injured Four Somalian Forces in Clashes Forcing Forces to Escape in Bardale, Beledweyne City, Hiran Region, Somalia.
• On January 20^th, Al-Shabaab conducted a complex suicide raid targeting a US-trained Danab forces base in Gal’ad, El Dheere district, Galgudud region, north-central Somalia. The attack killed the deputy commander of the Danab forces.

• On January 21^st, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Somalian Forces and Destroyed Their Vehicle in an IED Attack in Bosaso City, Bari Region, Northeastern Somalia.
• On January 21^st, Al-Shabaab Ambushed a Kenyan Checkpoint Killing and Injuring Several in Hami City, Garissa, Northeastern Kenya.
• On January 21^st, Al-Shabaab Repelled Five Somalian Forces Attacks Killing At least Four Soldiers and Destroying a Military Vehicle in Two IED Attacks in Hardiri, Mudug, Somalia.
• On January 22^nd, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Kenyan Forces and Destroyed Their Vehicle in an Attack in El Ramo District, Mandera, Northeastern Kenya.
• On January 22^nd, Al-Shabaab Injured Daynile Mayor Deputy, Muhammad Haddaf Ado, in an IED Attack in Karan, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 22^nd, Al-Shabaab Injured a Somalian Forces Element in an IED Attack on Their Gathering in Beledweyne City, Hiran Region, Somalia.
• On January 23^rd, Al-Shabaab Ambushed Two Ugandan and Somalian Military Bases in Boralo District, Barawe City and in Goufgduud Bori, Bidoa City, Lower Shabelle and Bay Regions, Somalia.
• On January 23^rd, Al-Shabaab Killed Five Somalian Forces and Destroyed Their Vehicle in an IED Attack in Bologaduud Town, Kismayo City, Juba Region, Southern Somalia.
• On January 23^rd, Al-Shabaab Injured Three Somalian Forces, Including a Commander, in an Ambush on a Military Base in Kismayo City, Juba Region, Somalia.
• On January 24^th, al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Somalian Forces and Destroyed Their Vehicle in an IED Attack in Lantaboro District, Afgoyee, Southwestern Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 24^th, Al-Shabaab Shelled the Presidential Palace Compound with 9 Missiles in Mogadishu in Addition to Shelling a Somalian Military Base in Mahas City, Hiran, Somalia.
• On January 24^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Somalian Forces in Clashes in Baidoa, Beledweyne and Halgan Cities, Bay and Hiran Regions, Southern and Central Somalia.
• On January 25^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Seven Somalian Forces, Including an Officer, and Destroyed a Vehicle in an IED Attack in Mahas, Hiran, Somalia.
• On January 25^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Official, Taher Sonoyni, in Lafwin District, Yaqshid, Mogadishu and Assassinated a Somalian Soldier in Bakara Market, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 25^th, Al-Shabaab Claimed to have Killed a Kenyan Government Official and Injured Another in an Attack in Halagi District, Fafi, Garissa, Northeastern Kenya.
• On January 25^th, Al-Shabaab Claimed responsibility of Killing and Injuring 24 Somalian Soldiers and Destroyed a Military Vehicle in an IED Attack and Clashes in Hardiri City, Mudug, Somalia.
• On January 26^th, Al-Shabaab Shelled an Ethiopian Military Base with Missiles in Wajid Airport, Bakool, Southwestern Somalia.
• On January 26^th, Al-Shabaab Killed a Somalian Forces Element in Hudur City, Bakool Region, Southwestern Somalia.
• On January 26^th, Al-Shabaab Claimed to have Ambushed a Kenyan Military Base in Alili District, Mandera, Northeastern Kenya. No Casualties were Reported.
• On January 26^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Somalian Forces, Including an Officer “Jolid Dashni”, in Two Attacks in Hardiri City, Mudug Region, Somalia.
• On January 28^th, Somali officials confirmed that State minister for transport and aviation of Galmudug administration Farhiya Abdi Mohamed was shot dead in Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the assassination.
• On January 28^th, Al-Shabaab Killed a Somalian Forces Element and Injured Another in an IED Attack in 4 Km Axis, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 28^th, Al-Shabaab Targeted a Somalian Military Patrol in an Ambush in Kismayo City, Juba Region, Southern Somalia.
• On January 28^th, Al-Shabaab Claimed Responsibility for Ambushing a Djiboutian FOB in Dhusamareeb City Airport, Galgaduud, Somalia.
• On January 28^th, Al-Shabaab Killed Five Somalian Forces and Injured Two Others in Clashes in Dakhaweni District, Beledweyne City, Hiran Region, Somalia.
• On January 30^th, Al-Shabaab Claimed to have Killed and Injured Kenyan Forces in Arabia, Gabi and Damasa, Mandera, Kenya.
• On January 30^th, Al-Shabaab Killed Two Somalian Police Elements in an Ambush in Holodaq and Ambushed a Military Base in Janale City, Lower Shabelle Region, Somali.

Assessment/Observations & Insights

Al-Shabaab’s ability to carry out persistent attacks, despite the efforts of security forces to combat them, indicates that they have a strong level of support within the local population and are able to maintain a significant level of influence in the region.

Notably, Al-Shabaab, the Al-Qaeda affiliate in East Africa, has been waging a deadly insurgency in the country for nearly two decades. Its weapons of choice have ranged from improvised explosive devices (IED) and vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs), to deploying suicide bombers to target security forces, public installations, and government officials.

In the face of military operations by the Somali government and its foreign partners, Al-Shabaab has proven to be resilient, continuously adjusting its strategy and tactics to evade and counter the efforts of security forces. The group has also been able to entrench itself deeper in Somali society, by building relationships with local communities and leveraging the support of local clans and militias.

It is important to note that Al-Shabaab’s insurgency has sown chaos in Somalia for close to two decades, and the group has been able to maintain a significant level of control over large areas of the country, particularly in rural areas. The group’s ability to persist and adapt in the face of military operations and counter-insurgency campaigns has made it a formidable threat to stability in the region, and the end of the war seems not to be in sight.

Conclusion

Counterterrorism operators at Strategic Intelligence (S.I) have warned of Al-Shabaab as a fully morphed outfit. Thus, it would be a mistake to underestimate Al-Shabaab as a ragtag group. Despite the efforts of the ATMIS and other security forces to combat the group, Al-Shabaab has been able to persistently conduct attacks and demonstrate a high level of operational capability and tactical flexibility.

The group’s ability to coordinate attacks and gather reliable intelligence on the movements of security forces suggests that it has a well-organized command structure and a strong level of operational capability. This, combined with the group’s ability to maintain a significant level of control over large areas of southern and central Somalia, demonstrates that the group’s insurgency in the region is more resilient and flexible than may have been anticipated.

Additionally, Al-Shabaab has demonstrated that it has the ability to export its activities to neighboring countries, specifically Kenya, where it has conducted a number of high-profile attacks in recent years. This indicates that the group has a regional reach and is able to conduct cross-border operations, which further underscores the complexity of the threat that the group poses.

In summary, Al-Shabaab is not a ragtag group, but rather a well-organized, resilient and flexible militant organization that poses a serious threat to stability East Africa region and beyond.