Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of February 1st – February 28th, 2022: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

The Harakat Shabaab Al Mujahideen (HSM), popularly known as Al-Shabaab is an Al-Qaeda affiliate threatening the security and stability of East Africa. The jihadist group continue to capitalize on political instability in Somalia, the group’s home-base waging persistent attacks on security forces, government officials and civilian targets. The Islamist militant group also continue to sporadically target Kenyan security forces especially in northeastern and coastal counties bordering Somalia as retaliatory for the county’s troops being part of African Mission in Somalia (AMISOM).        

The attacks continue to surge especially in Somalia.  In the month of February 2022, the militant group has escalated low to large scale attacks on military targets. Busy establishments especially coffee shops frequented by military assets and government officials have been targeted in suicide attacks and strengthened with gun fire. The month under review has seen at least 65 Al-Shabaab operations being conducted in Kenya and Somalia. 

A notable increase recorded as compared to the month of January 2022 whereby the Islamists militant group claimed at least 58 attacks. Al-Shabaab scaled up attacks in central and southern Somalia. In Kenya another key target of the Islamist militant group, a number of attacks have been recorded in Lamu, Garissa, Wajir and Mandera counties targeting security patrol units, construction company personnel besides non-locals in NEP Kenya.

Terrorist related kinetic activity slightly increased in the four weeks under review. Ambush raids, IEDs and suicide operations have become frequent mode of attacks by the Islamists Al-Shabaab and also use of direct gun attacks to maximize on casualties.

Threat assessment continue to be skewed towards military operating bases and their patrols convoys besides military convoys on supply missions especially for Somalia. Most of the raids against the targets are notably ambushes and setting up of roadside IEDs with a number of repeat attacks being recorded. Assassination attempts on key officials also witnessed in Mogadishu and its environs as well as resumption of suicide operations. A large-scale suicide operation in Somalia’s Beledweyne mid-month left scores killed at a teashop. The militants claimed responsibility saying they targeted security forces and government officials. However, a number of civilian casualties was reported.

For Kenya, the Al-Qaeda associated forces Al-Shabaab, the militant group has stepped up attacks especially in Lamu, Wajir and Mandera, disrupting the calmness that was witnessed towards the last months of 2021, where only a few low-scale incidents were recorded. The militant group now is keen on disrupting the frontier counties (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu) by planting IEDs on main roads an effort to target security assets on patrol missions. It imminent that threats posed by Al-Shabaab militants in Kenya’s Frontier NEP remains persistent. However, credit must be accorded to the robust CVE and CT Operations witnessed gradually foiling and degrading the threat. Notably, threats on Kenya interior remains low but security forces/operation must not relax guard rather they should remain on high alert. Sharing on actionable intelligence timely also much encouraged.

AS Recently Claimed Attacks:

Week 1: February 1^st – February 7^th

• On February 1^st, a huge IED blast targeted Ethiopian army convoy at Kalabayr area in Somalia’s Hiran region, near Ethiopian border. One military vehicle reportedly destroyed, resulting unknown casualties.
• On February 1^st, Al-Shabaab militants announced the execution of a man who they accused of spying for the Ethiopia National Defense Forces (ENDF) working for AMISOM and the Southwest regional troops. Al-Shabaab media reported that Nunow Sanweyne, 34, was executed by the firing squad in front of the locals at Bula-Fulay town in the Bay region of the Southwest state.
• On February 1^st, Al-Shabaab assassins shot dead a Somali government soldier in the vicinity of Tabelaha Sheikh Ibrahim, Mogadishu.
• On February 1^st, Al-Shabaab attack reported in villages of Bosaso, Sanaag region targeting Puntland forces. On February 5^th, counterterrorism operations were launched to secure the villages.
• On February 2^nd, 4 people killed after miraa van hit an IED along Wajir-Geriley road in Wajir county, NEP Kenya. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility.
• On February 2^nd, Al-Shabaab-affiliated media reported that its assassins conducted an assassination operation killing a Somali National Army and Somali Federal Government (SFG) official in two separate operations in Karaan district, western Mogadishu.
• On February 3^rd, Al-Shabab militants claimed to have probed an AMISOM operated base in El Wak, Gedo region of Somalia. Heavy exchange of gunfire heard and militants were successfully repulsed as per local sources. The Feeble probing attack from distance was for propaganda purpose.
• On February 4^th, On the outskirts of Mogadishu, the Mujahideen forces targeted a convoy of government security troops who were leaving Mogadishu for Bilidoogle base. Al-Shabaab bomber struck shortly after noon in front of the defense post in the outskirt of Mogadishu, killing five officers and wounding six others.
• On February 4^th, Reports from Burane area on the outskirts of Mahaday district of Middle Shabelle indicated that an IED explosion targeted foreign troops, especially those from the Burundian contingent on patrol operation. One soldier killed and a number wounded as per local sources.
• On February 4^th, A civilian bus/vehicle ran over an Al-Shabaab improvised explosive device near Abdi Dhore, Kismayo district in the Lower Jubba region of southern Somalia. The IED killed several people and wounded three.
• On February 5^th, Al-Shabaab fighters launched overnight attack on SNA operated base in Garasbaley, near Mogadishu, warring sides exchanged heavy gunfire. Al-Shabaab said it killed 1 soldier and wounded 4 others.
• On February 5^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have captured Dinsoor, Bay region, southwestern Somalia. The Islamist militants reportedly overran South West Forces’ bases in the town, killing 10 soldiers.
• On February 6^th, several rounds of mortars reportedly hit an Ethiopian army base in Dinsor town in Somalia’s Bay region. Huge fire engulfed the base after the attack as per local sources. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility, saying it killed 2 ENDF soldiers, injured 5 others and destroyed military property.

Week 2: February 7^th – February 14^th

• On February 7^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have launched a direct gun attack on SNA convoy on the outskirts of Kismayo, Lower Juba killing at least two soldiers and wounding four others, besides setting one military vehicle on fire and looting rifles.
• On February 9^th, Al-Shabaab claimed credit for mortar shelling of an election center in Barawe, Lower Shabelle, southern Somalia. Corresponding local sources reports indicated that the mortars hit nearby residential areas, killing at least four people and wounding nine others.
• On February 9^th, at least three people were killed and seven others wounded in a bomb attack on a café shop/restaurant in Somalia’s Bosaso town. Al-Shabaab – an Al-Qaeda – linked group claimed the responsibility for explosion.
• On February 10^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for suicide bomb at Mogadishu’s El-Gabta junction, Hamar Weyne district saying it targeted delegates selecting the upcoming Lower House MPs. The terrorist group claimed to have killed 6 delegates and 3 police officers escorting them.
• On February 10^th, at least four killed in IED attack in Sangailu, Holugho sub-county of Garissa, NEP Kenya. The four dead were part of 6 people who were in the vehicle that was travelling from Masalani to Holugho when the incident happened. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack.
• On February 11^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have shot dead SNA officer identified as Abdullahi Abdi Nur in Hodan district of Mogadishu.
• On February 11^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for a brief ambush attack on SNA checkpoint in the Iftin neighborhood of Yaqshid district, Mogadishu. No details on casualties were provided.
• On February 11^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have assassinated one SNA soldier in the general vicinity of Daynile Mogadishu.
• On February 11^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the assassination of a senior SNA official identified as Mohamed Isaq in a special operation in Dharkenley district of Mogadishu.
• On February11th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for public execution of a Somali National Army soldier in Gambole, Middle Shabelle, southern Somalia.
• On February 12^th, Al-Shabaab militants detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) targeting security troops convoy near Mangai Village, Lamu County, southeastern Kenya.
• On February 12^th, Al-Shabaab fighters attempted probe on Jubaland Security Forces (JSF) thwarted in Afmadow district, Lower Juba. No casualties were reported.
• On February 12^th, Al-Shabaab forces claimed to have trampled on the SNA manned checkpoint in general area of Adale, Middle Shabelle, killed two government soldiers and seized their two rifles.
• On February 13^th, the Mujahideen forces claimed responsibility for attack on Somali government troops in general vicinity of Mahaday, Middle Shabelle injuring three soldiers.
• On February 13^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have launched a major offensive against the African Union base in Arbacow, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. No details on casualties were provided.
• On February 13^th, Al-Shabaab militant group claimed series of operations against military positions and bases in Janaale and the areas of Siin Dheer, Alamada, Lafole and a     , all in Lower Shabelle region of Somalia.

Week 3: February 14^th – February 21^st  

• On February 14^th, Al-Shabaab publicly executed a young man on adultery allegation in Booco vicinity, in the outskirts of Beledweyne town, Hiran region of Somalia.
• On February 15^th, Al-Shabaab using grenades targeted the residence of Huliwa deputy commissioner but he survived since he was away at the time of the raid. His residence was destroyed in the blast while unknown number of his security personnel suffered heavy casualties.
• On February 16^th, Al-Shabaab militants attacked several police stations and security checkpoints in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu. Initial reports indicate that Al-Shabaab fighters carried out deadly attacks on 4 police stations in Mogadishu overnight. Using car bomb, followed by infantry attack, The militants targeting police stations detonated explosives followed by gunfire in Kahda, Hilwaa, Daynile and Darusalam all located in the fringes of the city. 2 pickup trucks mounted machine guns, weapons and ammunition were seized. Casualties were also reported.
• On February 16^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for attack on an AMISOM base operated by ENDF in Wajid, Bakool region of Somalia. Two soldiers injured in a direct gun fight.
• On February 16^th, Al-Shabaab claimed credit for an attack on Jubaland security troops in general vicinity of Bar Sanguni, Lower Juba. One JSF soldier killed in the brief ambush gun fight.
• On February 16^th, Roadside bomb blast hits Kenyan security forces near Haluqa village in Garissa County NEP. One vehicle reportedly destroyed, resulting unknown number of casualties as per local sources.
• On February 19^th, at least 13 people were killed in central Somalia on Saturday after a suicide bomber detonated explosives in a restaurant packed with local officials and politicians. The dead were mostly civilians and 20 other people were wounded in the town of Beledweyne, Hiran region of Somalia.
• On February 20^th, Al-Shabaab targeted a government official in the general vicinity of Hilwaa Mogadishu. Casualties reported.
• On February 20^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked a government official identified as Mohamed Abukar in a roadside explosion in the general vicinity of Buulo Mareer, Lower Shabelle. The official was wounded alongside four security guards accompanying him.

Week 4: February 21^st – February 28^th

• On February 21^st, Al-Shabaab car bomb exploded at a police station at the port city of Bosaso. The blast hit one of the vehicles escorting a senior Puntland official Said Dani; escaping narrowly from the blast. Four security officers were killed and two others wounded.
• On February 22^nd, Al-Shabaab fighters claimed to have killed 3 Ethiopian soldiers and wounding others, following a roadside bomb blast inside Wajid town in Somalia’s Bakool region.
• On February 22^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed a bomb attack that targeted AMISOM’s Ugandan troops in general vicinity of Abdow-Dibille, southwest of the capital Mogadishu. No details on casualties were provided.
• On February 22^nd, Al-Shabaab and SNA clash in the general vicinity of Fidow village, Middle Shabelle. The troops were on their way to Jowhar when they were ambushed by the militants. No details on casualties were provided.
• On February 23^rd, Al-Shabaab militants ambushed a Kenyan Defense Forces convoy near Kiunga, Lamu County, southeastern Kenya. No details on casualties were provided.
• On February 23^rd, Al-Shabaab detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) targeting Ethiopian African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces in Wajid district, Bakool region, southwestern Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed the IED killed at least 3 soldiers.
• On February 24^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have assassinated a government official of the court identified as Mustaf Abdi Hassan in general vicinity of Weydow, Mogadishu.
• On February 24^th, Al-Shabaab claimed an IED blast on two SNA soldier on a motorcycle. In general vicinity of Tareedisho, village in the outskirts of Somali capital Mogadishu. Corresponding reports indicate that the two soldiers died at the scene.
• On February 24^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have conducted a surprise raid on AMISOM military base operated by Burundian troops using RPGs and gunfire in Haan Sheikh area on the northern outskirts of Balad, Middle region of Somalia. Al-Shabaab through Radio Andalus claimed to have killed two and injured several.
• On February 25^th, Al-Shabaab the Mujahideen forces claimed to have carried out series of shelling and direct attacks on SNA operated base in Barire area on the outskirts of Afgoye district, Lower Shabelle. The attacks killed seven government soldiers and wounded eight others as Shabaab claim and corresponding local sources.
• On February 26^th, Al-Shabaab reportedly launched a direct attack on a Somali government operated base in Makudo, a few kilometers to Baidoa town, Bay region of Somalia. Two casualties were reported.
• On February 26^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility on SNA operated military base near Dariq Bridge area on the outskirts of Kismayo, Lower Juba region of Somalia. One SNA soldier was killed and two soldiers, one named Gadamow, were wounded in the fierce gun fight.
• On February 27^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for attack on Somali police station in general vicinity of Karaan district of Mogadishu. Initial reports indicate that a car bomb exploded at the police station followed by indiscriminate gun fire. Unknown number of casualties reported.
• On February 27^th, Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces launched a major offensive against AMISOM military base operated by the Ethiopian troops in Burhakabo district of Bay region.
• On February 27^th, Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces claimed to have launched a major ambush raid against the AMISOM’s Djiboutian operated military base at Dhusamareb airport in Galgadud region of Somalia. No details on casualties were provided.
• On February 28^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have conducted a brief raid in general vicinity of Arabia, Mandera NEP Kenya targeting non-locals/government official travelling from Mandera. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility via its propaganda media, Radio Andalus.

Assessment/Observations & Insights

• The frequency of Al-Shabaab terrorist attacks within theaters in Somalia and Kenya prefectures bordering with Somalia has been alarming. In Somalia an average of two attacks have been recorded on daily basis.
• The terrorists are exploiting political crisis, topography and economic factors to advance their unjust course of even mounting attacks on civilian targets. Coffeeshops, markets and public service vehicles have been keen targets by Al-Shabaab.
• Al-Shabaab has publicly declared intent to conduct attacks in retaliation for Kenya’s counter-terrorism operations in Somalia, which it conducts as part of the African Union Mission (AMISOM) and this hasn’t changed, besides targeted attacks have been witnessed in the frontier Kenyan counties bordering Somalia.
• The Mujahideen Movement of Al-Shabaab has in recent four weeks carried out a series of coordinated attacks on military bases and camps in the Somali capital targeting AMISOM forces and the Federal Government Troops as well as Police. In the middle of this month, Al-Shabaab fighters launched a series of attacks on four police stations in Mogadishu, killing police officers and looting weapons and police vehicles an indicator of sharpened capability to conducted coordinated multiple operations.
• CT actors at Strategic Intelligence (S.I) have warned/forecasted of more operations to be expected in the coming months and especially during Ramadhan where the militants as per event records indicate they usually escalate operations.
• The return of US airstrikes will be a big relief in war against Al-Shabaab in Somalia. The resumption of airstrikes in Somalia would be key towards disrupting Al-Shabaab much increased activity; movements and buildup from across the regions of central and southern Somalia besides border prefectures with Kenya.

Conclusion

Its primary goals of security and intelligence operators East Africa region to capitalize heavily on countering the return of violent extremism and terrorism to ensure the terror groups do not outbid them besides extending foothold in other areas. Concerted CT efforts from all concerned actors/partners much encouraged.

Al-Shabaab is full of accomplished insurgents, and to ensure the group does not begin to regain traction, the coalition/CT operators need to mount and scaleup a disciplined and coherent counterinsurgency campaign in support of the weak Federal Government of Somalia and also stem down persistent attack trends witnessed in Kenya’s NEP counties (Mandera, Wajir and Garissa and Coastal Lamu county.

An after-action review (AAR) on suspected Al-Shabaab camps in sub sectors of south and central Somalia also highly recommended. Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continue to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activity in the East Africa regions and warns of consistent militant’s increased activity.  The militant’s intentions to strike on hard targets (security forces) in Somalia and in Kenya remains the militant’s ultimate goal. Joint CT and COIN actors should not relent on mounting concerted military pressuring on the Islamist groups in an effort to guard counter-terrorism gains so far made in the region.