Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of August 1st – August 31st, 2022: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

The Harakat Shabaab Al Mujahideen (HSM), commonly known as Al-Shabaab is an Al-Qaeda affiliate threatening the security and stability of East Africa region. The extremist militant group with its home-base in Somalia continue to wage attacks striking both on soft ad hard targets. The militant group strategy has significantly capitalized on political instability of Somalia to wage persistent attacks on local and foreign security troops, government officials and civilian targets.

While Somalia continues to suffers huge brunt from almost daily attacks from Al-Shabaab militant group, Kenya and Ethiopia also continue to sporadically experience attacks basically as retaliatory for the individual countries deploying troops and being part of African Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). A number of incidents have been recorded for Ethiopia in the past two months and a few low-scale attacks have also been recorded for Kenya especially along the border counties with Somalia.

The attacks continue to especially in Somalia ranging from low to large scale attacks.  In the month of August 2022, the militant group has conducted more than 50 attacks from across the East Africa region, with Somalia recording the highest number of these attacks. In Somalia, Al-Shabaab has conducted lethal attacks that targeted on military FOBs and also on busy establishments such as the markets and restaurants. One notable attack was conducted on Hayat Hotel Mogadishu where Al-Shabaab used SVBIED and Inghimasi to storm target killing more than 25 people and injuring scores. Its notable Al-Shabaab targets such social joints which are basically frequented by government officials besides local and foreign troops.

Notably, Al-Shabaab in a recent statement issued via its propaganda media wing, Al-Kataib Foundation issued a threat notice to the incoming new administration in Kenya. Al-Shabaab noted that it will continue to strike inside Kenya if it continues to maintain its “invasion” of Muslim lands and if the incoming new government does not vacate from these lands.

Such Al-Shabaab threats cannot be downplayed citing in the past similar threats have come to be perpetrated. Thus, Al-Shabaab threats to Kenya are real and Kenyan counterterrorism operators need to keep vigil, beef security along the porous border with Somalia as well as intensify patrols, comb scouting around security defense posts especially in upper and lower NEP Kenya (Mandera, Wajir and Garissa and also do the same in the coastal counties especially in Lamu.

AS Recently Claimed Attacks:

• On August 1^st, Al-Shabaab publicly executed 7 for allegedly spying for US Intelligence in Bulo Falay, Bay region of Somalia.
• On August 1^st, Al-Shabaab claimed that its gunmen killed “spies” in Mogadishu, Somalia and Gedo region, southwestern Somalia. Al-Shabaab said it killed a “spy working for US intelligence.
• On August 1^st, a prominent peacekeeper killed in Afgoye district. Armed Al-Shabaab men on a motorcycle shot and killed a prominent peacekeeper identified as Adan Abshir Maddey in the Afgoye district of the Lower Shabelle region.
• On August 3^rd, fighting erupted after Al-Shabaab militants using array of weaponry attacked ATMIS-Ugandan military base in Lower Shabelle. Ugandan forces operating under ATMIS and Al-Shabaab fighters in Golweyn area, Buulo-Mareer district in the Lower Shabelle region.
• On August 4^th, Clashes between SNA forces an Al-Shabaab fighters reported in Shalambood area of Somalia’s Lower Shabelle region. The group claimed responsibility for killing of two government soldiers and wounding of several others.
• On August 4^th, Al-Shabaab claimed grenade attack reportedly killed at least one person in Mogadishu’s Shibis District. Emerging reports indicate that the grenade attack targeted National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) agents.
• On August 4^th, ATMIS-KDF troops came under a brief attack by Al-Shabaab militants in Somalia’s, Taabto area, Lower Juba. The brief raid was successfully foiled and no casualties reported.
• On August 5^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for a VBIED attack that targeted the Turkish trained Gorgor troops in the general vicinity of Jawiil, Hiran region of Somalia. The VBIED attack killed two soldiers and wounded three others.
• On August 5^th, five police officers were injured in a suspected Al-Shabaab attack in Mandera, NEP Kenya. Police on patrol routine were attacked at Bamba Ola stretch between Wargadud and Elwak.
• On August 5^th, at least two Somali National Army (SNA) soldiers were killed and three others wounded in a VBIED attack on by Al-Shabaab militants on a military base in Kalebeyr Hiran region, central Somalia.
• On August 6^th, An Al-Shabaab planted landmine exploded and killed sibling, injured two others between Habura and Sibidhley areas in Togdheer region of Somaliland.
• On August 7^th, Al-Shabaab detonated a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) targeting Hirshabelle State officials near the Hirshabelle State Presidential Palace, Jowhar, Middle Shabelle region, south-central Somalia. The VBIED wounded six civilians but failed to kill officials.
• On August 7^th, Reports from the Mahaas area in the Hiran region, indicate that Al-Shabaab terrorists set 7 villages on fire and also destroyed several water wells.
• On August 7^th, Al-Shabaab mortar explosions were reported near Villa Somalia in Mogadishu shortly after parliament convened to approve the recently appointed cabinet. No details on casualties were provided.
• On August 8^th, A Somali National Intelligence Security officer was shot and killed in cold blood near Seibiyano Junction in the capital, Mogadishu by suspected Al-Shabaab assassins.
• On August 8^th, Al-Shabaab militants reportedly raided villages in Beledweyne and Bulo Burto districts, Hiraan region, central Somalia. Al-Shabaab militants set nine villages on fire, destroying more than 300 houses, and destroyed water wells in Raqso and Teedan, Beledweyne district and Bukure, Bulo Burto district.
• On August 8^th, Al-Shabaab an IED operation on a vehicle that was carrying Federal officials on the outskirts of Matabaan district in Hiran region, central Somalia. The explosion left two officials killed and two others wounded.
• On August 9^th, four people, including 2 women were killed and 11 others wounded in 9 separate landmine attacks near Bulo-Haji village under Kismayo district as State Media reports.
• On August 9^th, Al-Shabaab militants claimed credit for conducting a complex attack targeting civilians and first responders in Abdale Birole, Kismayo district, Lower Jubba region, southern Somalia. Local officials claimed Al-Shabaab killed four people and wounded 11 others.
• On August 10^th, Al-Shabaab killed six men by firing squad in a public square in Jilib district, Middle Juba region after they accused them of spying for the Somali government and the United States Intelligence.
• On August 11^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for detonating a Suicide Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (SVBIED) targeting a local official in Afgoye, Lower Shabelle region, southern Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed the SVBIED killed the former deputy commissioner of Afgoye.
• On August 14^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have burnt and destroyed military equipment, including tents inside a camp belonging to the ATMIS-Ethiopian troops. The militant claimed responsibility for artillery and mortar shelling on the Ethiopian camps in Qansaxdhere and Awdiinle of Bay region as part of the attacks against the foreign troops. At least 3 Ethiopian soldiers were killed and 6 other Ethiopians were injured in the attack.
• On August 16^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have ambushed an SNA convoy traveling between Teedan and Qodqod in Beledweyne district, Hiraan Region. The attack killed two soldiers and wounded one as per corresponding local sources.
• On August 16^th, Al-Shabaab roadside improvised explosive device hit an Ethiopian Somali Region Liyu Police convoy near Washaaqo, El Barde district, Bakool region, southwestern Somalia. The IED explosion killed at least two soldiers and wounded five others.
• On August 16^th, Al-Shabaab claimed credit for an ambush operation that targeted Somali government troops in area between Janale and Bufow Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. Two SNA soldiers were killed and one other wounded.          
• On August 17^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for a brief armed assault targeting on ATMIS-Burundian troops in Mahaday town in the southwestern Middle Shabelle region of Somalia. No details on casualties were provided.
• On August 17^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an attack on Somali government troops in Huliwaa district of Mogadishu. The militant group claimed that the IED operation left at least one govt soldier killed and others wounded.
• On August17th, Al-Shabaab fighters in an armed assault attacked ATMIS-Ethiopian troops’ positions/bases in Bardale, Bay region of Somalia. At least four soldiers reportedly wounded as per corresponding local reports.
• On August 18^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have carried an operation and killed a government officer identified as Mohamud Mohamed Noor Galmah in the vicinity of Sana’a junction in the Yaqshid district of Mogadishu.
• On August 19^th, Al-Shabaab in a VBIED raid stormed Hayat Hotel in Mogadishu killing about 25 and wounding 117 others in a siege that took more than 30 hours. The militants used explosives to gain entry to the Hotel before violently taking control.

• On August 20^th, Al-Shabaab at a public square executed six young men by flying squad in the Kunyo-Barow area of Awdheegle district, Lower Shabelle region over allegations of spying for the Somali government and United States intelligence.
• On August 20^th, Mother, 3 children die in mortar explosion in Hamar Jajab district, Mogadishu. Suspected Al-Shabaab militants, fired several mortar shells numbering up to five, on residential areas killing and injuring several people, mostly members of the same family.
• On August 25^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have conducted three attacks on SNA posts and a police station in Mogadishu’s Yaqshid, Howl Wadag, Kahda, and Hodan districts. Al-Shabaab claimed to have kill one soldier in Yaqshid, wounded two in Howl Wadag, and destroyed the targeted police station in Hodan.
• On August 25^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for mortaring a Somali Regional Liyu police camp near Yeed, near the Ethiopian-Somali border in Bakool region, southwestern Somalia.  No details on casualties were provided.
• On August 28^th, Al-Shabaab detonated a roadside improvised explosive device (IED) targeting Somali National Army (SNA) soldiers on a motorcycle near Barire village, Afgoye district, Lower Shabelle region, southern Somalia. The IED explosion killed two soldiers and wounded one other.
• On August 29^th, Al-Shabaab conduct an-overnight raid in the general vicinity of Daynile district of Mogadishu targeting Somali government officers. The militant group via its media wing claimed responsibility for gunning down a soldier identified as Hussein Sheikh Mohamed Noor.
• On August 29^th, Al-Shabaab conducted another operation in the vicinity of Tabeela Sheikh Ibrahim on the outskirts of Mogadishu in which a two-star officer named Mohamed Ibrahim Ufurow was injured.
• On August 29^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an IED explosion in the general vicinity of Ifka Halane area of Wardhiigley district of Mogadishu where seriously 3 SNA soldiers were injured.
• On August 31^st, Al Shabaab claimed responsibility for attacking local Ma’awisley militia forces at El Adde village, Gedo about 60 kilometers west of Beledweyne town, Hiraan region, central Somalia. At least seven killed from this raid as per local sources.
• On August 31^st, Al-Shabaab attacked a Somali National Army (SNA) base at Warmahan, Afgoye district, Lower Shabelle region, southern Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed six soldiers and kidnapped one other govt soldier.

Assessment/Observations & Insights

Despite the airstrikes and increased foreign troops presence in Somalia, Al-Shabaab clearly remains capable of conducting high-profile terrorist attacks directly in Somalia’s capital. Threat assessment continue to be skewed towards military operating bases and their patrols convoys besides military convoys on supply missions especially for Somalia. Most of the raids against the targets are notably ambushes and setting up of roadside IEDs with a number of repeat attacks being recorded. Assassination attempts on key officials also witnessed in Mogadishu and its environs as well as resumption of suicide operations.

Notably Al-Shabaab has claimed to have in the past 30 days of the month of August that it killed 16 people for being allegedly spies working with foreign agencies including the CIA, Kenya and Ethiopia. At least 11 of them were killed in Jilib the militant group’s operating headquarters and 5 others were executed in Kunya Barrow town in Somalia’s Lower Shabelle region. The militant group in a strategy aimed at instilling fear among Somali populous as well as its own members continue to execute alleged spies publicly.

Persistent attacks on SNA and ATMIS military bases in Somalia underline the persistent threat posed by Al-Shabaab, the Al-Qaeda affiliate in East Africa. Attacks on military bases have largely been VBIEDs signifying the group’s growing confidence to attacks on heavily fortified areas. The bomb attacks are strengthened by indiscriminate gunfire from group’s foot soldiers.

Thus, Al-Shabaab has continued its pattern of violence, however, attacking government installations and buildings in the smaller towns and other areas. The group has assassinated senior government officials and politicians, and kidnapped foreigners, including aid workers. It has employed the use of roadside IEDs, VBIEDs, and suicide bombers to disrupt life in the town and southern Somalia and also sporadically targeting Kenya-Somalia border prefectures.

The group’s objective and goal remain unchanged. Through its insurgency, Al-Shabaab militant group is seeking to destabilize and overthrow the Federal Government of Somalia, with the aim of installing a government based on sharia (Islamic law).  For Kenya, the militant group remain keen on disrupting the frontier counties (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu) by planting IEDs on main roads an effort to target security assets on patrol missions. It imminent that threats posed by Al-Shabaab militants in Kenya’s Frontier NEP remains persistent. However, credit must be accorded to the robust CVE and CT Operations witnessed gradually foiling and degrading the threat. Notably, threats on Kenya interior remains low but security forces/operation must not relax guard rather they should remain on high alert. Sharing on actionable intelligence timely also much encouraged.

Conclusion

Al-Shabaab attacks demonstrates continued resilience in Somalia and beyond. Al-Shabaab has repeatedly proven that it remains highly resilient and able to embarrass the Somali government, proving to Somalis that the government and security forces are unable to protect them. The challenge posed by the Al-Qaeda associated Al-Shabaab is set against the backdrop of deteriorating conditions across Somalia, highlighting that effectively countering the terrorist threat means also addressing food insecurity, severe drought, and ongoing governance challenges.

Thus, its primary goals of security and intelligence operators in East Africa region to capitalize heavily on countering the return of violent extremism and terrorism to ensure the terror groups do not outbid them besides extending foothold in other areas. Concerted CT efforts from all concerned actors/partners much encouraged now Al-Shabaab seek to conduct retaliatory attacks citing their key leader of Al-Qaeda Ayman al Zahawiri who was killed in CIA drone strike in Kabul Afghanistan on July 30.

The militant’s intentions to strike on hard targets (security forces) in Somalia and in Kenya and also on other East Africa country’s remains the militant’s ultimate goal. Joint CT and COIN actors should not relent on mounting concerted military pressuring on the Islamist groups in an effort to guard counter-terrorism gains so far made in the region.