Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of August 1st – August 31st, 2021: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa Region

Executive Summary

The Harakat Shabaab Al Mujahideen or the Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Shabaab threatening the security and stability of East Africa continue to capitalize on political instability in Somalia, the group’s home-base to perpetrate attacks on security forces, government officials and civilians. The jihadist group also continue to sporadically target Kenyan security forces especially in northeastern and coastal counties bordering Somalia as retaliatory for the county’s troops being part of African Mission in Somalia (AMISOM).

In the month of August, the Islamists militant group has claimed at least 50 attacks. Al-Shabaab scaled up attacks in central and southern Somalia. Terrorist related kinetic activity slightly increased in the four weeks under review. Al-Shabaab claimed at least 43 attacks all in Somalia, this is a slight increase as compared to June where 37 were recorded. A gradual surge in Al-Shabaab operations noted citing in May, 28 attacks were recorded.

Lull reported in Kenya’s frontier counties. No major incident was reported for Kenya, another key target of the Islamist Al-Shabaab. However, counterterrorism operators in Kenya should not relent and misconstrue that the terrorist threat has diminished but should remain vigilant in their various areas of responsibility. Al-Shabaab might be hatching plans to wage attacks targeting military, police defense posts and also patrol units in frontier counties (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu) citing the militant’s previous attacks trends.

While an uphill task, ending the group’s ability to successfully carry out attacks would deal a blow to Al-Shabaab’s capabilities.  However, counterterrorism operators need to always rethink strategies, changing on their daily routines and combat strategies as often as possible. Counterterrorism forces in Kenya and Somalia will need to make hard targets harder to strike by re-inventing on strategies that will mostly involve locals, human intelligence (HUMINT) driven.

AS Claimed Attacks (August 1^st – August 31^st)

Week 1:

• On August 2^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed killing at least three people, wounding two others two separate gun attacks carried out by its operatives in Mandera county, NEP Kenya.
• On August 4^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have raided AMISOM base operated by Ethiopian troops at Bardhere airport in Gedo region of Somalia. The militant used grenades and strengthened the attack with indiscriminate gun fire.
• On August 5^th, Al-Shabaab fighters reportedly attacked the SNA military base in Deynunay area in Bay region. No details on casualties were reported.
• On August 5^th, Roadside bomb target Somali government forces in Yaqshid district of Mogadishu. At least four soldiers wounded in the attack.
• On August 5^th, Al-Shabaab reportedly executed an elderly man identified as Hassan Tohow Fidow, 87 at Al Ansar Square in Elbur town, Galgaduud region of Somalia on allegations that he insulted Prophet Muhammad.
• On August 5^th, Al-Shabaab roadside IEDs targeted AMISOM, Ethiopian troops in the general area of Wajid district of Bakool region of Somalia. No details on casualties were published.
• On August 7^th, Chief of Somalia’s infantry forces Gen. Bihi survived a roadside bomb after his convoy was targeted in area between Bacaadweyne and Wisil towns in Mudug region. Several military officers including Col. Dayib Osman killed, others wounded. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack through group’s pro-media channels.
• On August 7^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for attacking Jubaland Security Forces (JSF) Yoontoy, north of Kismayo, Lower Juba region of Somalia.
• On August 7^th, Al-Shabaab claimed a low-scale raid on military base operated by ‘South West’ administration on the outskirts of Dinsor district. No details about casualties were reported.
• On August 7^th, Al-Shabaab ambushed police officers outside Bar Sanguni Police Station, Lower Juba. Several police officers killed and other injured. Militants claimed to have confiscated AK47 rifles.

Week 2:

• On August 7^th, The Al-Qaeda associated Al-Shabaab claimed a heavy attack on a military base of the ‘South West’ administration on the outskirts of Dinsor district, southwestern Bay region of Somalia.
• On August 7^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for attack on Jubaland Security Forces (JSF) in Yoontooy, north of Kismayo. No details on casualties were provided.
• On August 8^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked AMISOM troops in general area of Taabdo, Lower Juba region of Somalia. No details on casualties were provided.
• On August 8^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked AMISOM-Ugandan contingent in general area of Shalaambood village, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attacks on foreign forces via Islamic Radio Andalus. No details on casualties were reported.
• On August 8^th, Al-Shabaab attempted probe on AMISOM operated base in Tabto, Lower Juba successfully repulsed. No casualties were reported.
• On August 9^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked AMISOM troops in Lower Juba region of Somalia. Initial reports indicate that AMISOM truck was targeted with a roadside IED in the general vicinity of Ras Kamboni, a few kilometers to the Kenyan border.
• On August 10^th, Fierce fighting reported near Danow area of Somalia’s Lower Shabelle region after Al-Shabaab fighters ambush on AMISOM forces. Militants claim to have killed several soldiers from Uganda besides destroying a military vehicle.
• On August 12^th, Al-Shabaab claimed an IED explosion operation on the outskirts of Bossaso that killed a Puntland government soldier and wounded several others.
• On August 12^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed several soldiers of Jubaland administration. Initial reports referenced from credible open sources indicate that Al-Shabaab IED explosions targeted convoy of vehicles carrying Jubaland Security Forces (JSF) in Berhani area on the outskirts of Kismayo. Two vehicles were destroyed in the blast.
• On August 12^th, Al-Shabaab carry out targeted killings in Mogadishu and its neighborhood. The armed militants attacked a police station in the neighborhood of Hodan district Saybiyaano and injured at least three officers.
• On August 12^th, Al-Shabaab carried out another attack at a checkpoint in the Arafat neighborhood of Yaqshid district injured police officers manning the security checkpoint.
• On August 12^th, Al-Shabaab in a targeted operation killed a government intelligence officer in the capital Mogadishu, identified as Max’med Shuute.
• On August 13^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for ambush raid on military base operated by Galmudug administration forces. Initial reports indicate that heavily armed Al-Shabaab fighters operating from the province of Galgadud launched a major attack on a Galmudug military base in Adakibir, about 55km from Adado town. Al-Shabaab claimed to have briefly taken control of the base, seized weapons as the soldiers fled.
• On August 14^th, Al-Shabaab claimed on military bases operated by South West administration in Makundo area in southern Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed to have raided military bases in Baidoa, Bay region of Somalia with artillery shells. One soldier killed and two others wounded.
• On August 14^th, Explosion injures senior officials in Jowhar town. A powerful explosion reported in Jowhar, Middle Shabelle region of Somalia targeting soldiers and officials of Hirshabelle administration. Initial reports indicate that the explosion wounded at least four soldiers.
• On August 14^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed a senior mine clearing officer, in outskirts of Ba’adweyne area, Mudug region of Somalia. Al-Shabaab attack also saw a US-trained soldier killed in general Qeycad area.

Week 3:

• On August 14^th, Al-Shabaab attempted probe on AMISOM military base operated by Ethiopian troops in Hudur, Bakool region of Somalia was successfully thwarted. However, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack saying a number of soldiers were injured.
• On August 15^th, Al-Shabaab Somali army troops in the capital, Mogadishu. At least three people were killed and others injured in the gun fight including Ismail Buur, the deputy police chief of Suuqa Hoolaha.
• On August 15^th, a powerful explosion in Middle Shabelle region targeting soldiers and officials from the Hirshabelle administration reported. Corresponding open sources reports indicate that the IED explosion claimed by Al-Shabaab injured a senior security official of Jowhar and his bodyguards.
• On August 16^th, Heavy attacks targeting on foreign military bases and allied forces reported in Southern Somalia. Initial reports from Baidoa indicate that artillery shells claimed by Al-Shabaab were fired at the military base near Baidoa airport. No details on casualties were provided.
• On August 17^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have overrun a military base operated by Galmudug forces. Corresponding open sources reports indicate that the fighting that lasted for several hours took place in Qeycad area under Ba’adweyne district, Mudug region of Somalia. Al-Shabaab propaganda media affiliated channels claimed to have killed several soldiers besides capturing three vehicles.
• On August 17^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for attacks for Landmine explosion that Mohamed Abukar Afrah (Bidaar), the Garasbaaleey district commissioner, and two of his bodyguards were killed in a landmine explosion. Two other people were injured in the blast. Afrah was appointed 3 months ago after his predecessor was killed in an explosion, claimed by Al-Shabaab.
• On August 19^th, A heavy explosion claimed by Al-Shabaab reported in the capital Mogadishu. An Al-Shabaab suicide bomber detonated explosives near a popular restaurant frequented by security operators in Habar Khadijo, Mogadishu. Casualties reported.
• On August 19^th, Sheikh Abubakar and Hussein Bereey, the top officials of Huriwa district administration, narrowly escaped assassination attempts claimed Al-Shabaab. One bodyguard was killed and two others wounded.
• On August 19^th, A Somali police officer was killed by Al-Shabaab suspected assassins in Mogadishu’s Kaaran vicinity.
• On August 20^th, Al-Shabaab clash with troops of South West administration in the vicinity of Gofgadud Burey, a town on the outskirts of the city of Baidoa, Bay region. The troops were trying to stop illegal collection of Zakat in the area by the Islamist militants. Casualties reported from both sides.
• On August 20^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for a car bomb explosion that happened in the Somali capital, Mogadishu, killing at least two people and wounding several others.
• On August 20^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an attack that targeted Somali army base in Sabid area of Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. Al-Shabaab propaganda Radio Andalus reported that Al-Shabaab fighters attacked two government operated bases near the bridge in Sabid.
• On August 21^st, Al-Shabaab fighters launched a major attack on an AMISOM military base operated by Ethiopian troops (ENDF) in Wajid district, Bakool region of Somalia.
• On August 21^st, Al-Shabaab claim a low-scale attack that targeted AMISOM troops on patrol in general area of Ras Kamboni, Lower Juba region of Somalia. No casualties were reported.

Week 4:

• On August 22^nd, heavily armed militants clashed with Somali military troops, took over many areas in Beledweyne town, Hiran region of Somalia.
• On August 24^th, Al-Shabaab fighters retake Amara and Ba’adweyne towns in Somalia’s Mudug region after govt forces withdrew following a deadly attack on Somali military base.  The militants seized weaponry, technicals (military pickups mounted with guns) among other military vehicles. No details on casualties were provided.
• On August 25^th, Al-Shabaab militants captured several other villages including Qeycad and Sabeena Gowra after clash with Galmudug regional forces.
• On August 26^th, Al-Shabaab claimed attacks on AMISOM bases in Lower Juba. No further details on the claimed operation.
• On August 26^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have assassinated a senior government official in the capital Mogadishu.
• On August 28^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an attack on AMISOM military base operated by Ethiopian troops at Hudur, south western Bakool region of Somalia. No casualties were reported.
• On August 29^th, Al-Shabaab responsibility for an attack on Federal government troops’ operated bases in in Janale and Awdheegle, Lower Shabelle region.
• On August 29^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed soldiers in Hudur and Dinsor, Bay region of Somalia. The militant group claimed to have killed two soldiers of South West administration. Several others wounded in the ambush operation.
• On August 30^th, Government intelligence (NISA) officer killed in Mogadishu’s Howlwadag district. Al-Shabaab through its propaganda outlets claimed its operatives shot and killed a Federal Government intelligence officer in Bakara market vicinity.
• On August 30^th, AMISOM convoy attacked in Lower Shabelle. Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked an AMISOM base on the outskirts of Marka, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia operated by Ugandan troops. No details on casualties were provided.

Assessment/Observations & Insights

Al-Shabaab presents a growing threat not only in the horn of Africa but well beyond the region. Despite concerted counterterrorism operations against Al-Shabaab, the group remains resilient and persistent in waging attacks. Al-Shabaab’s strengths lie in the ability to mobilize its fighters on short notice and also in smaller units to avoid movement detection and loss in the battlefield.

Jihadist militant group continue to hold significant territory in southern and central Somalia and have the ability to conduct mortar attacks and vehicle-borne improvised explosive device attacks and follow-up small-arms assaults in Mogadishu as has continually been witnessed in repeat attacks especially targeting military operating bases.

Al-Shabaab continue to routinely attack Somali citizens, military forces, and its coalitions partners. The Islamist group continue to target security troop’s convoys as well as their military bases.

Mudug region of Somalia has suffered a number of repeat attacks in the past four weeks. Intelligence assets have continually warned of increased militant activities in Mudug region of Somalia citing the group having established its operations bases in the region. In recent weeks, strategic Ba’adweyn town which is located in Mudug region has been an epicenter of the clashes between the Somali government troops and the Al-Qaeda associated Al-Shabaab militants.

Al-Shabaab’s biggest threat to peace in Somalia is their frequent use of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs), especially vehicle-borne IEDs (VBIEDs), ambush raids and targeted suicide operations. Al-Shabaab’s attacks in recent years increasingly rely on IEDs and VBIEDs, making them the weapon of choice and a modus operandi for the terrorist group.

Targeted attacks, assassinations and executions have also increased in Somalia. Government officials and alleged spies are key targets of the Al-Qaeda aligned militants. Al-Shabaab threat heavily skewed towards security and defense outpost for both Kenya and Somalia. However, civilians plying public service vehicles, foreigners, including aid workers, construction workers and journalists are very likely to be targeted by jihadist militants in both countries.

This, it’s important to undertake countering violent extremism (CVE) efforts that addresses the employment of counter-radicalization, counter-messaging, and countering violent extremism (CVE) campaigns is an important step in curbing increasing operations of ambushes and suicide bombing. Any attempted intervention that does not address the reasons that young men and women may join Al-Shabaab or any other violent extremist group will remain incomplete.

Attack on Kenya remains key and ultimate goal for the Al-Qaeda associated forces. Attacks on Kenya serves an important propaganda purpose for Al-Shabaab citing Kenya is a major hub in Africa for diplomatic activity, tourism and business. Furthermore, Kenya hosts a number of international organisations and Al-Shabaab considers this as part of its overall mission to target these interests linked to Western countries.

Its notable how the Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab has hailed the Taliban takeover of Kabul after U.S. withdrawal of troops. Al-Qaeda emir has lauded success in Afghanistan, saying many lessons can be learned from the brave takeover. He highlights the first lesson of which is that the path to jihad is the only way to liberate Muslim lands, and the nation that stands for jihad can never be defeated. From this, it is imminent he is giving directives to the Al-Qaeda affiliates from across the continents. More attacks expected in the coming days in East Africa, especially in Somalia as militants try to prove themselves and emulate the Afghan’s Taliban.

Conclusion

Its primary goals of security and intelligence operators East Africa region to capitalize heavily on countering the return of violent extremism and terrorism to ensure the terror groups do not outbid them besides extending foothold in other areas.

Hence, there must be a concerted effort in order to counter terrorist persistent activity and its aspirations in all sectors, including defensive military actions, humanitarian aid, public diplomacy and the use of other means of soft power.

The United Nations contends that the Al-Shabaab militant group still remain a major threat towards the ongoing process of promoting peace, stability, and development in Somalia and East Africa region at large, due to the fact that they can wage small to large scale sporadic attacks.

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continue to monitor and track the jihadist activities in East Africa and beyond. The groups capability on carrying out repeat attacks on military, convoys and government officials have sharpened. Thus S.I. reports that, the threat and intent on waging attacks against hard and also on soft targets by the Islamist Al-Shabaab remain unchanged.