In Summary
Harakat al-Shabaab al Mujahideen (HSM), popularly known as Al-Shabaab is a dangerous enemy that presents a threat to Somalia and broader East Africa countries, especially Kenya. Al-Shabaab routinely attacks Somali citizens, military forces, and its coalitions partners. The Islamist group continue to target security troop’s convoys as well as their military bases.
Security and intelligence assets in the region need to capitalize heavily on countering the return of violent extremism and terrorism to ensure that the terror groups do not outbid them besides extending foothold in other areas. Besides, Somali security forces (SNA) continue to rely on international support for operations, and Al-Shabaab is not degraded to the point where Somali security forces can contain its threat independently.
In the past 30 days, the Islamists militant group conducted dozens of attacks from across different regions of Somalia. The attacks have notably been low-scale. Counterterrorism assets have been preparing for a bloody Ramadhan in Somalia, however, that has not been the case. The Islamist militants have been keen, following on the weak Federal Government make a mistake as it has continued to be witnessed in the capital Mogadishu. Political unfoldings have almost divided the county’s security assets (army and police) into two, each taking sides either to the Federal Government or to the opposition.
Somalia’s political crisis turned violent when lawmakers on April 14 approved a law to extend the mandate of President Mohamed Abdullahi, also known as Farmajo, without an election. The move came after the nation failed to hold a scheduled vote on Feb. 8 because of disagreements between the federal and regional governments over the process.
Protests against the Farmajo unconstitutional extension in office have been witnessed. Thousands fearing for security have also fled from the capital Mogadishu and its environs. The militant group most likely in the subsequent coming days and weeks will exploit every opportunity they may get to wage more attacks, further destabilizing Mogadishu administration, besides other semi-autonomous states.
Al-Shabaab, an associated force of Al-Qaeda terrorist network probably has been keen on political scenarios unfolding in Somalia. Notably, the militant group in the month of April launched at least 52 attacks. This is a significant decline as compared to the past months of the first quarter of 2021 where an average of at least 70 attacks were recorded. No major incidents reported in Kenya’s frontier counties Mandera, Wajir and Garissa. However, one attack was recorded, where Al-Shabaab detonated an IED targeting a convoy of Kenyan troops traveling near the Somali-Kenyan border toward southeastern Kenya’s Lamu County.
Despite the lull witnessed in northeastern prefectures (NEP Kenya) in the past couple of weeks, Kenyan counterterrorism assets urged to beef up security, especially along the border with Somalia to thwart possible surprise raids, besides preempting occasional threats posed by Al-Shabaab on Kenyan soil. Also, security actors to be keen by acting on intelligence reports on new recruitment grounds in the coastal county of Kwale, and Isiolo county where youths continue to be sneaked into Somalia.
Kenyan intelligence assets on the other hand continue to warn of embed local cells within the local communities in NEP counties and Lamu coastal county.
Assessment/Observations & Insights
As it has been anticipated, Al-Shabaab always spike up martyrdom operations during the holy month of Ramadhan. However, Al-Shabaab has opted to scale-down its operations amid increased political scenarios in the Horn of Africa nation.
It cannot also be misconstrued that Al-Shabaab won’t strike at any slightest opportune time when Federal Government and Federal Member States are still engulfed in political differences and at the same time the country’s security forces almost taking sides especially in the capital Mogadishu.
The political impasse has raised fears that Al-Qaeda-linked Al-Shabaab insurgents could exploit a security vacuum if state forces split along clan lines and turn on each other. The militant group has taken over at least one Somali town in the past week as heavily armed fighters moved from the countryside into the capital city. Deadly attacks fronted in the coming days are probably being planned.
The joint Counterterrorism (CT/COIN) actors seeks to disrupt, degrade, and deny victory to Al-Shabaab and pro-ISIS-Somalia operating in northern Somalia and neighboring countries. But despite many years of sustained Somali, U.S., and international counterterrorism pressure, the terrorist threat in East Africa is not degraded. The Al-Qaeda’s affiliated Al-Shabaab retains freedom of movement in many parts of central and southern Somalia and has demonstrated an ability and intent to attack outside of the country.
Lack of socioeconomic opportunities and poor governance will continue contribute to increased violent extremist activity in East Africa in the coming months and maybe next few years. The lack of socioeconomic opportunities stems from low or unequal growth, high poverty and unemployment, and limited economic development leaving vulnerable youths being recruited into the militant camps. These conditions are common place and are present in several East African states and may be aggravated by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on struggling African economies.
Conclusion
Counterterrorism actors in Somalia to come up with counter measures to slow down the persistent Al-Shabaab menace in war-torn nation and beyond. Following the US withdrawing its troops in Somalia, the country’s most advanced, best trained forces, the Danab forces, continue to struggle, even suffering heavy combat losses and attrition, an indication the country’s security is still weak and without support from its partners remains unable to fight and degrade Al-Shabaab.
Continuous monitoring, surveillance and scouting encouraged, several meters away from forward operating bases/police defense outpost for both Kenya and Somalia. Hard targets remain Al-Shabaab key targets. Change of routine on patrol teams as well as armies’ convoys also encouraged to avoid devastating IEDs/landmines that remains preferred weapon of choice by the Shabaab.
Threat levels are always skewed towards defense positions (DPs). Key target remains on military bases and convoys. Others such as shopping malls, hotels and public service vehicles remains possible Al-Shabaab targets during this Holy month, and such, security urged to remain on high alert. The militant group continue to deploy small army units to avoid movement detection besides to avoid mass casualties from their sides in case of a military clash.
An after-action review (AAR) on suspected Al-Shabaab camps in sub sectors of south and central Somalia also highly recommended. Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continue to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activity in the East Africa regions and warns of consistent militant’s activity in the region. The militant’s intentions to strike on hard targets (security forces) in Somalia and in Kenya remains the militant’s ultimate goal. Joint CT and COIN actors should not relent on mounting concerted military pressuring on the Islamists groups in an effort to guard counter-terrorism gains so far made in the region.
