Midweek East Africa Counterterrorism Intelligence Brief in Period of October 1st – October 6th: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa (Kenya and Somalia)

The Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab continue to stage attacks in the East African nation of Somalia and her neighbor Kenya. Its notable that targets for the Islamist militant groups had become elusive due to Coronavirus that advocate against large gatherings, but normalcy is returning in East Africa countries and so the threat of lethal attacks also rising. That notwithstanding, Al-Shabaab militants are still conducting attacks especially on hard targets though soft targets. However, innocent casualties have been caught up in the enemy crossfire.

Increased militant’s activities continue to be reported from across a number of theaters especially in Somalia though the militant group persistently has sustained insurgency in central and southern regions. Bay and Hiiran have become persistent regions of Somalia targeted by Al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab is taking advantage of thicket vegetations and geography of these regions to stage guerilla ambush and IEDs along the major routes used by both local and foreign troops. Targeted assassinations and suicide missions steadily resuming in Somalia regions.

In about five days, the Al-Qaeda aligned Islamists Al-Shabaab have claimed at least six low intensity attacks, all in the horn of African nation, Somalia as recorded below.

Recently Claimed Attacks (October 1^st – October 6^th)

• On October 1^st, An Al-Shabaab female suicide bomber blew herself-up at the Black Sea junction of Howlwadag district, Mogadishu. Initial reports indicate that the bomber targeted a police station. One senior officer was killed alongside his two bodyguards.
• On October 2^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed a surprise attack on an AMISOM military base operated by Ethiopian troops (ENDF) based at Bardheere airport, Gedo region of Somalia. No casualties were reported in the brief raid.
• On October 3^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility of IED attack that targeted a convoy carrying supplies to troops in Awdheengle district of Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. Initial reports indicate that there were casualties. Al-Shabaab media that usually exaggerates on number of casualties reported to have killed nine Turkish trained-SNA soldiers and burnt a supplies truck.
• On October 4^th, Al-Shabaab low-scale raid on AMISOM base operated by Burundian troops between Bala’d and Jowhar of Middle Shabelle region repulsed. No casualties were reported.
• On October 4^th, The Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab attempted attacks on AMISOM military bases in Tabto and Abdalla Birole, Lower Juba region of Somalia successfully thwarted. The militants have previously attempted to probe the same military bases persistently, firing artillery shells from a distance. Troops have swiftly responded prompting the militants to retreat, fleeing into the thickets. No casualties were reported.
• On October 5^th, Al-Shabaab militants targeted SNA military base in an ambush attack in the vicinity of Bala’d, Middle Shabelle region of Somalia. Two government soldiers reportedly killed, two others wounded and a military vehicle burnt.

Counterterrorism Concerns

As joint forces continue to mount concerted pressure on the Islamists’ Al-Shabaab from across different towns, localities and regions of the war-torn Somalia, there has been increased engagements between Al-Shabaab and locals in Bay, Bakool and Hiran regions in a planned  move aimed at luring them to working and cooperating with the Al-Qaeda aligned militants.

In a number of times, the Islamist Al-Shabaab has organised clans perceived reconciliation meetings in the aforementioned regions of Somalia, hoisting their black flags and portraying as if they are in control of the named regions.

The militant’s media wing has promoted the infographics of these ceremonies where hundreds of camels were reportedly handed over to the warring clans of Gaaljecel and Geelidle who have been at loggerheads for some years.

These ceremonies are attracting huge gatherings and led by clan elders. This should be of concern to joint CT actors in the regions as they are posed to offer recruiting grounds for the militants, besides the militants portraying as alternative for the locals going to an extension of solving clans’ conflicts.

Another ceremony was held in the capital Mogadishu where a sultan of Juba regions was inaugurated alongside traditional clan elders. The sultan of the Jubba clan, Abdiweli Hassan Madobe, was inaugurated in a ceremony that was highly promoted by the Islamist militant’s propaganda media wing.

Its imminent that Al-Shabaab will go to any possible lengths to exploit clans’ dynamics besides win their support to wreak havoc on both local and foreign troops whom they are against as they as push their radical ideologies especially in their home-base, Somalia.

Insight and Conclusion

Notable, central and southern regions of Somalia have been persistent theaters of confrontations between Al-Shabaab and coalition forces. The militants continue to stage ambush attacks on military bases and their convoys, taking advantage of thick vegetation to lay IEDs on MSRs which have also become a frequent norm.

However, more concerted COIN operations are needed in order to sustain these made gains citing the fluidity of these two regions; central and southern of Somalia which have remained operational areas of contestation between Al-Shabaab and coalitions partner forces.