In Summary
The period under review registered a number of Al-Shabaab activities in both deep operations and close quarter operations targeting on military targets. In Somalia, the threat level is skewed towards military operating bases.
Increased sighting of large concentrations of Al-Shabaab troops and activities continue to be reported in central and southern regions of Somalia. This build up has been consistent for the past several weeks. Taking advantage of the vegetation in these regions, the militants are able to conduct surprise attacks and when overwhelm retreat to the thickets.
The Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab over the weekend had an event in a public square in the vicinity of Weel-Marow village under Afmadow district, whereby they distributed ‘zakat’ the local (cows, goats and camels). Such events targeted poor locals ranging from youths to the old is a tact whereby Al-Shabaab continue to engage different demographics of population through such forums in turn to get their support.
Besides it offers a fertile ground to recruit and indoctrinate the vulnerable youths. Such events, consultative forums and conferences have been witnessed in a number of Somalia regions in the recent past months with some locals reportedly pledging allegiance to the militant group.
In the past five days, Al-Shabaab militant group has claimed less than ten attacks in Somalia. A decline in a number of attacks has been noted especially over the past weekend as compared to previous weekends where increased militant’s activities are recorded in previous past months.
No major event has been recorded on Kenya, another target of Al-Shabaab. None the less, this lull should not be misconstrued that the terror threat is no more. There is a need for concerned CT assets to establish whether enemy troops relocated from these frontier locations close to the Somalia border, or the lull is meant to achieve strategic surprise. Subsequently, there is a need to activate sources in these locations and in order to sustain aerial surveillance to pick on the possible enemy signatures.
Recently Claimed Attacks (December 4th – December 8th)
- On December 5th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked AMISOM positions in Abdullah Biroole town, Lower Juba and also on AMISOM’s Ugandan troops in Lower Shabelle. Corresponding local reports indicate that, those attacks were successfully thwarted. No casualties were reported.
- On December 6th, Heavy attacks reported on foreign military bases and SNA bases in the southern and central regions of Somalia. An attack in Awdheegle, Lower Shabelle killed at least five Somali government soldiers trained at a Turkish military academy base in Mogadishu.
- On December 6th, Separate attacks reported targeting AMISOM’s Djiboutian troops’ base in Hiran region of Somalia. No casualties were reported.
- On December 7th, Heavy clashes reported in one of the neighborhoods of the capital Mogadishu. Heavy fighting reported in the vicinity of a SNA base at Heila Barise, Yaqshid district, Mogadishu. Heavy gun fire reported.
- On December 7th, Al-Shabaab fighters ambush-raid US-trained Somali forces based in the village of Sabid, on the outskirts of Afgoye district in Lower Shabelle from several directions. No casualties were reported.
Observations/Insights
Africa is fast overtaking Middle East as the preferred jihadists destination. For example, in sub-Saharan Africa countries with the largest increase in terrorism activities include Burkina Faso, Mozambique, DRC, Mali, Niger and Cameroon. In East Africa, Somalia, Kenya and Tanzania, terror militants are a threat to the regional security.
The first eight days of December have recorded a number of attacks from the Islamists Al-Shabaab, though a decline in the number of attacks compared to the same period of November, October and September.
However, Al-Shabaab’s tempo of assassinations, small-arms ambushes, and improvised explosive device (IED) attacks remains. Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab remains capable of staging large-scale attacks in multiple areas of Somalia and continues to develop its advanced bomb-making capability.
Al-Shabaab determined resolve to attack on military targets remains the group’s ultimate goal. In the period under review, attacks have revolved around military bases and security check points.
A number of attacks have been recorded in the capital Mogadishu, Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba. The group sporadically targets civilians and communication infrastructure in Kenya’s Mandera, Wajir and Garissa Counties. Security units and outposts are also key targets of the Islamist
Concerns have been raised on security situation in Somalia and the regions once US withdraws its troops early 2021 at a critical time when the Horn of Africa is expected to conduct elections on February 2021. Al-Shabaab certainly expected to take advantage, and exploit this vacuum to push its agenda of toppling Mogadishu.
Also notable is geopolitical tiff between Mogadishu and Nairobi. Farmajo’s administration attack on Kenya viewed as a survival tactic. Somalia has blamed Kenya on interfering with its internal affairs, allegations Nairobi has refuted as untrue. Somalia instead should desist from picking fights with its neighbors in an effort to divert attention from mounting domestic problems.
Recent counterterrorism operations especially in Somalia continues, with a number villages and localities being recaptured in southern Somalia. At least three villages in southern Somalia’s Lower Jubba region on December 4. were recaptured in joint operations. On December 5. an Al-Shabaab commander was captured near Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu while another was killed in a botched raid.
Security situation in Ethiopia’s Tigray is also of great concerns for East Africa region. The Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab militant group will highly likely gain from the withdrawal of thousands of Ethiopian forces amid a security crisis in northern Ethiopia. Worse still, Al-Shabaab may also seek to expand into Ethiopia directly if the current conflict leads to fragmentation and more widespread violence.
The risk of renewed hostilities is high and will highly possibly create chances for Al-Shabaab to attack, including in Kenya and possibly Ethiopia. Al-Shabaab will take advantage of the security vacuum by staging attacks along the Kenyan-Somali border. Somalia depends on foreign military support to combat the Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Shabaab.
Finally, the terrorist threat continues to multiply from all fronts in East Africa. Cross-border militant activity continues to fuel the Islamic State–linked insurgency in Mozambique with incidents of jihadists steadily increasing in Tanzania, another East Africa country. Budding militants activities also continue to be reported in DR Congo.
