Mid-week East Africa Counterterrorism Intelligence Brief: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa (Kenya and Somalia)

Notable Upsurge in Militant’s Activities in Kenya and Somalia

The Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab continues to mount attacks in East Africa region. The Islamist militant group notably has especially targeted Somalia and Kenya in those attacks. The group’s increased activity continues to pose threat and significant burden on the countries of the Horn of Africa and more so to regional forces combating them particularly at a time the countries are battling with global coronavirus pandemic.

There has been an uptick in Al-Shabaab’s activity in Somalia. From the period of Ramadan, the militant group has upscaled its operations from across a number of theaters in Somalia. The attacks trend show that the militants persistently has sustained insurgency in central and southern regions of Somalia. The capital Mogadishu and its environs, Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Gedo, Bay, Bakool and Hiran regions remains Al-Shabaab preferred areas of operations.

In barely a week, Al-Shabaab has recorded at least ten attacks in Somalia. In the neighboring country; Kenya, Al-Shabaab has recorded at least one attack in NEP, Garissa county. Last week, militant group claimed at least three attacks in the border county of Mandera. Kenya’s northeastern prefectures has witnessed a period of calmness with no major cases of militant’s activity, an indication of enhanced counterterrorism approach by the concerned security actors.

The Islamist Al-Shabaab continue to target SNA and AMISOM troops in their bases, convoys especially in the rural areas and small towns in the southern and central parts of the country. However, civilians have been caught up in the close-fire and clashes between the militants and security assets.

Recently Claimed Attacks (June 19^th – June 23^rd)

• June 19. Al-Shabaab gunmen shot dead a government soldier and took his gun in Heliwa district of Mogadishu.
• June 19. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility of its fighters assassinating a government soldier near Bakara market in Hodan district of Mogadishu.
• June 20. The Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed four people and injuring 5 others after two successive IED explosions in Wanlaweyn, Lower Shabelle. Local reports indicate that the IED blasts targeted residence of a SNA military commander. After crowd gathered at the scene, a 2^nd explosion occurred injuring at least 20 civilians.
• June 20. Two people were killed and 3 others injured following an Al-Shabaab grenade assault that targeted a police station in Galgadud region of central Somalia.
• June 21. At least 8 Turkish-trained Somali soldiers were killed in an ambush attack in the Janale district of Lower Shabelle. 15 others were reportedly injured in the close quarter battle.
• June 21. Al-Shabaab assassins shot dead a Somali police officer identified as Ali Rage inside his house in Dharkanley district of Mogadishu.
• June 21. Al-Shabaab claimed massive IED explosion in Bacadweyn town in north-central Mudug, about 170km southeast Galkayo. The Attack began with a SVBIED that rammed on entrance of SNA base followed by Al-Shabaab fighters with gun fire. At least 2 people reportedly killed in the attack that targeted soldiers from 21^st Division.
• June 22. Al-Shabaab fighters attacked an Ethiopian military base in Halgan town, Hiran region of Central Somalia. Al-Shabaab fighters launched mortar shells on the military base operated by ENDF troops with casualties being reported from both sides.
• June 23. At around 0130 hrs, 10 Al-Shabaab fighters armed with AK47 rifles burnt 4 shops in Garissa’s Sangole centre, located about 10kms East of Ijara BTS mast (MOYIT). After the incident, the militants fled through the nearby thickets.
• June 23. Al-Shabaab conducted a suicide bombing outside TurkSom military Facility in the capital Mogadishu. The Tuesday morning attack saw at least three people including the suicide bomber killed. Others included, two civilians who were killed in the blast and one cadet was slightly wounded.

A Look at Some Challenges to Anti-Al-Shabaab Efforts

Despite regional and international efforts to counter Al-Shabaab in recent years, there are some challenges that prevent the elimination of the group or curtailing its activity and strike power. Concerted counter-terrorism efforts have significantly stemmed group’s activity in the region; however, the group remains active especially in Somalia’s theater controlling almost a fifth of Somali territory.

1. The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) has been focused on regional politics with other Regional States such as Jubaland administration, Puntland, Somaliland instead of prioritizing on building a strong national army.

2. Somalia has weak military and training capabilities, besides under equipped forces which make them unable to eliminate Al-Shabaab.
3. The horn of Africa nation is engulfed with clan politics which frequently perpetuate fighting between local militias in some regions, which in turn gives Al-Shabaab the maneuverability and space they need across Somalia.
4. For the longest time, Mogadishu had failed to dry up the Al-Shabaab’s sources of funding in order to limit its capabilities and activities in Somalia and the broader region.
5. The absence of political solutions to the Al-Shabaab threat, and overlooking the option of starting a political dialogue with the group to establish stability in the region. Hence, the continuation of the zero-sum game will reduce the chances of making and maintaining peace in Somalia, especially with poor counter-terror efforts.
6. The current policies and measures pursued by the Farmajo’s Administration at various levels risk increasing popular discontent and pushing the youths towards Al-Shabaab to undermine the current regime.
7. The rampant corruption in the institutions of the Somali state, especially the military and NISA who allows Al-Shabaab to penetrate those institutions and recruit officials.
8. Poor coordination of regional and international counter-terror efforts in Somalia.

Al-Shabaab remains the primary direct threat to peace and security in Somalia in particular and the Horn of Africa region in general. The uptick in the group’s activity reveals that the region has become a soft flank for terrorist activity in Africa. Though most of the group’s attacks are low-scale raids, they are significant to the group’s survival and relevance.

According to the recorded events, Al-Shabaab has increased attacks on military bases, both on bases belonging to government forces and foreign troops. Ethiopian bases and convoys have become frequent target of the Islamists Al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab also also targeted TURKSOM military camp which was built in 2017, located in Jazeera area, south of Mogadishu. The camp provides training to Somali soldiers fighting against Al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab last week also targeted U.S.-SNA operated base in Baledogle, Lower Shabelle.

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continues to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activity in the Horn of Africa region and warns of unchanged militant’s upsurge. This trend if not decisively countered, could deal blows to counter-terrorism gains so far made in the region.