Mid-week East Africa Counterterrorism Intelligence Brief in Period of July 17th – July 21st: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa (Kenya and Somalia)

Increased Al-Shabaab activities continue to be recorded in East Africa region. The Al-Qaeda aligned Islamist militant group notably has especially targeted Somalia and Kenya in those attacks. The group’s increased activity continues to pose threat and significant burden on the countries of the Horn of Africa and more so to regional forces combating them particularly at a time the countries are battling with global Covid-19 pandemic.

Increased militant’s activities continue to be reported from across a number of theaters in Somalia though the militant group persistently has sustained insurgency in central and southern regions conducting at least ten attacks in barely a week. Bay and Hiiran have become persistent regions of Somalia targeted by Al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab is taking advantage of thicket vegetations and geography of these regions to stage guerilla ambush and IEDs along the major routes used by both local and foreign troops. Targeted assassinations and suicide missions steadily resuming in the capital Mogadishu.

Recently Claimed Attacks (July 17^th – July 21^st)

• On July 17^th, Fierce clashes erupted in Bula Burde town, in Hiran region of central Somalia. Initial reports indicate that Al-Shabaab stormed a Somali National Army (SNA) military base in the town. Casualties from both sides reported as small and heavy weaponry was used in the fight.
• On July 17^th, Heavy IED explosion hit an AMISOM troop’s convoy travelling in the outskirts of Qoryoley town in Somalia’s Lower Shabelle region. The Islamists Al-Shabaab through their pro-media claimed responsibility of the attack and said it destroyed one armored vehicle.
• On July 17^th, Al-Shabaab militants targeted a Somali Government intelligence officer in Bula Burde town, in Hiran region of central Somalia. Somali military sources indicate that Al-Shabaab shot and killed an intelligence officer identified as Farah Omar and wounded another.
• On July 18^th, Deputy of Somali Security Minister, Abdinasir Said Muse survives an assassination attempt after massive roadside bomb targeted his vehicle. The explosion which occurred near Taleh junction in the capital Mogadishu killed one of his bodyguards and three other people.
• On July 18^th, three people were injured following mortar shell attack in Janaale town of Lower Shabelle. The indiscriminate shelling perpetuated by Al-Shabaab militants hit residential houses in the town injuring three civilians.
• On July 18^th, AMISOM’s Ethiopian troops (ENDF) foiled an Al-Shabaab attack in their Halgan military base in Hiran region of central Somalia. Initial reports indicate the militants stormed AMISOM-ENDF base in Halgan at around 03.00 am local time from different directions. Firefight ensued with casualties being reported from both sides.
• On July 18^th, Al-Shabaab militants staged an attack in the port Marka town of southern Lower Shabelle, located approximately 109 kilometers to the southwest of Somalia’s capital Mogadishu. Initial reports indicate that Al-Shabaab targeted SNA soldiers in a grenade attack at their military base in Marka, injuring three soldiers.
• On July 19^th, Al-Shabaab fighters attacked AMISOM troop’s convoy with an IED explosion in the outskirts of Burane town in Somalia’s Middle Shabelle region. The Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility of the attack and said its fighters killed two Burundian soldiers.
• On July 20^th, At least one Somali government soldier killed, two others wounded in a roadside bomb explosion in Burhakaba town, Bay region of southern Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility of the deadly explosion through its media.

Counterterrorism Interventions

The Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab militant group remains the primary direct threat to peace and security in Somalia in particular and the Horn of Africa region in general. The uptick in the group’s activities continues to be recorded revealing that the region has become a soft flank for militant’s activity in East Africa. Though most of the group’s attacks are low-scale raids, they are significant to the group’s survival and relevance.

However, its notable of the resumption of suicide-martyrdom missions by the Islamists Al-Shabaab. Suicide missions targeted at military convoys and military bases could be lethal. Its also notable of Al-Shabaab targeting high-ranking security officials in Somalia. Last week (midweek) Al-Shabaab suicide bomber targeted the convoy of Somalia Chief of Defense Forces, General Odawa Yusuf Rage near Mogadishu’s Tarabunka junction.  Barely three days after, the militants in a targeted mission attempted to assassinate Deputy of Somali Security Minister, Abdinasir Said Muse near Taleh junction in Mogadishu’s Hodan district.

Al-Shabaab continue to demonstrate persistently and constantly its ability to attack heavily fortified facilities including military bases and army convoys from across Somalia regions.

Joint counterterrorism operations by local and foreign military assets also continue to mount pressure on Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab in both central and southern Somalia regions. In past few days, Al-Shabaab has also dealt blows from CT-operations in the named Somalia regions as listed below;

• Somali National Army (SNA) forces killed seven militants and injured five others near Bardale town in south-central Somalia’s Bay region on July 12.
• A joint Somali National Army (SNA) and Jubaland State security operation killed six Al Shabaab militants near Koban and Bula Haji villages in southwestern Somalia’s Lower Juba region on July 18.
• Somali National Army (SNA) troops supported by the southwest state regional forces conducted a joint counterterrorism operation targeting Al-Shabab fighters in the district Wigli of Dinsor district in Bay region on July 19, killed four Al-Shabaab fighters and wounded several others.
• AMISOM-ENDF troops foiled an Al-Shabaab attack on their base in Halgan town, Hiran region of central Somalia. The fighting lasted for several hours before the militants fled from the region having been overwhelmed by ENDF.
• Two men linked to Al-Shabaab were arrested after Somalia’s Jubaland forces discovered explosives and grenade bombs in an operation carried out in Yoontoy, Lower Juba region of Somalia.

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continues to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activity in the Horn of Africa region and warns of unchanged militant’s upsurge. This trend has not changed. Tts not getting any better and the curve is trending upwards, if not decisively countered, could deal blows to counter-terrorism gains so far made in the mapped regions of Somalia.