Mid-week East Africa Counterterrorism Intelligence Brief in Period of July 10th – July 14th

Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa (Kenya and Somalia)

Increased Al-Shabaab activity continue to be recorded in East Africa region. The Al-Qaeda aligned Islamist militant group notably has especially targeted Somalia and Kenya in those attacks. The group’s increased activity continues to pose threat and significant burden on the countries of the Horn of Africa and more so to regional forces combating them particularly at a time the countries are battling with global Covid-19 pandemic.

Increased militant’s activities continue to be reported from across a number of theaters in Somalia though the militant group persistently has sustained insurgency in central and southern regions. One would be roadside attacks reported in a Mandera village, NEP Kenya.

Recently Claimed Attacks (July 10^th – July 14^th)

• On July 10^th, Al-Shabaab claimed ab IED explosion in the vicinity of the Al Masal School, Waberi district of Banadir region. Initial reports stated that the explosion occurred approximately 20:15 Local time. Gunfire was reported following the explosion.
• On July 10^th, Al-Shabaab claimed repulsing a joint U.S.-SNA attack in Lower Shabelle inflicting casualties. Reports indicate that the clash took place in the outskirts of Mubarak, Awdheengle district of Lower Shabelle. Three soldiers killed and four others wounded.
• On July 12^th, An IED explosion claimed by the Islamists Al-Shabaab killed 10 Jubaland Security Forces (JSF) in Bula Gaduud area in the outskirts of Kismayo. Initial reports stated that JSF troops on routine patrol duties struck a roadside bomb in Bula Gaduud vicinity, about 35 kilometers from the port city of Kismayo, Lower Juba region of Somalia.
• On July 13^th, Al-Shabaab claimed a suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) attack targeting Somalia’s Chief of Armed Forces and his convoy near Somalia’s Defense Ministry in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu. General Odawa Yusuf Rage survived the attack which left at least two killed, one civilian and the militant in the suicide mission, though group’s propaganda media wing said it killed 5 of Odawa’s guards, wounded 9 others and destroyed 3 military vehicles. Al-Shabaab previously targeted General Rage with an improvised explosive device (IED) near Janaale in southern Somalia’s Lower Shabelle region in late March.
• On July 13^th, An Al-Shabaab operative planting a roadside bomb was killed by an improvised explosive device (IED) he was planting on the roadside in Geneva area in Mandera County, northeastern region of Kenya. According to authorities, the roadside IED was targeted at security forces who frequently uses the route.

Counterterrorism Interventions

The Islamist Al-Shabaab remains the primary direct threat to peace and security in Somalia in particular and the Horn of Africa region in general. The surge in the group’s activity reveals that the region has become a soft flank for terrorist activity in Africa. Though most of the group’s attacks are low-scale raids, they are significant to the group’s survival and relevance.

Counterterrorism assets also continue to mount pressure on Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab in southern Somalia. In past few days, Al-Shabaab has also dealt blows from CT-operations in Somalia and Kenya as listed below;

• Somali army forces repulsed an Al-Shabaab attack on a SNA base near Awdinle town in Bay region killing five Al-Shabaab militants. The militants attempted to overrun a military base manned by Somali National Army but were repelled on July 6.
• Somali National Army (SNA) forces killed seven militants and injured five others near Bardale town in south-central Somalia’s Bay region on July 12.
• SNA forces reportedly killed a senior Al-Shabaab official identified as Salad Dheere in Lower Shabelle region on July 10. SNA intelligence reports linked Dheere to al Shabaab’s recruitment, training, and tax collection.
• A U.S. Africa Command airstrike destroyed an al Shabaab checkpoint in Lower Shabelle on July 9, killing one Al-Shabaab militant.
• Kenyan police arrested two suspected militants linked with Al-Shabaab in western Kenya’s Rift Valley province on July 11. Kenyan police reported that the suspects possessed explosives and planned to target the province’s Eldoret International Airport.
• Kenya security agencies on high alert following increased militants’ movements in upper and lower northeastern prefectures. Enhanced security operations to address such incidents, noting that such bombs are set up to target movements of security officers in the region which borders Somalia.

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continues to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activity in the Horn of Africa region and warns of unchanged militant’s upsurge. This trend is not getting any better and the curve is trending up, if not decisively countered, could deal blows to counter-terrorism gains so far made in the region.