Mid-week East Africa Counterterrorism Intelligence Brief in Period of 6th November – 10th November: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa (Kenya and Somalia)

Increased Al-Shabaab activity continue to be recorded in East Africa region. The Al-Qaeda affiliated Islamist militant group notably has especially targeted Somalia and Kenya in those attacks over the years.

The group’s increased activity continues to pose threat and significant burden on the countries of the Horn of Africa and more so to regional forces combating them particularly at a time the countries are battling with another wave of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Increased Al-Shabaab militant’s activities continue to be reported from across a number of theaters in Somalia though the militant group persistently has sustained insurgency in central and southern regions. In the past five days have the Islamist militants recorded at least 9 attacks all in Somalia regions as listed below.

Recently Claimed Attacks (6^th November – 10^th November)

• On November 7^th, Heavy fighting reported between Al-Shabaab militants and SNA supported by AMISOM’s Djiboutian troops in the outskirts of Dhusamareb, Galgadud region of Somalia. Initial reports indicate that SNA and AMISOM troops had raided Al-Al-Shabaab hideouts where they were engaging in military training operations. Al-Shabaab propaganda media reported that 24 soldiers were killed and 12 others wounded. The clashes come as Al-Shabaab militants have carried out a series of attacks on bases at Dhusamareb airport in recent days.
• On November 7^th, Al-Shabaab claimed attack on AMISOM’s Ugandan troops’ base in the outskirt of the coastal town of Barawe in Lower Shabelle region.
• On November 8^th, Al-Shabaab attempted attacks on AMISOM bases in Hosingow and Tabto areas of Lower Juba region of Somalia successfully thwarted. No casualties were reported.
• On November 8^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked AMISOM base operated by Ethiopian troops in Awdinle area, on the outskirts of Baidoa, Bay region of Somalia. Casualties reported.
• On November 8^th, Al-Shabaab claimed attack on AMISOM military base operated by Ugandan troops in Awdheengle and Garasbaale areas in Lower Shabelle region of Somalia.
• On November 8^th, Al-Shabaab claimed another attack on Jubaland Security Forces (JSF) in Afmadow district of Jubba region Somalia and various casualties were reported.
• On November 9^th, Suspected Al-Shabaab operatives carried out grenade attack at the residence of deputy parliamentary speaker Abdi Baaleey Hussein Monday night where three people were wounded.
• On November 9^th, Al-Shabaab launched mortar attack on Puntland military base in Galgala. Initial reports indicate that Al-Shabaab fighters launched a heavy attack on a Puntland militia base in Galgala area on the outskirts of Bossaso firing at least 12 mortar shells. No casualties were reported.
• On November 10^th, General Qooje Dagaari, the Commander of the 21^st division of the Somali National Army (SNA), survives an assassination attempt following roadside bomb attack on his convoy near Dhusamareb town, Galgadud region in central Somalia. Two of his guards killed, 10 others wounded. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility.

Latest CT-Ops and Interventions

Joint counterterrorism operations (CT-Ops) from across various regions of Somalia continue to mount pressure on the Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab, slowing down besides disrupting their increasing operations.

• In Mudug region of Somalia, Puntland forces in an intelligence led operation raided an Al-Shabaab cell operation in Galkayo vicinity and arrested at least 7 suspected Al-Shabaab operatives including two middle-level commanders. The arrested men, to undergo further probing to ascertain their involvement in heinous killings accused and attacks in the Mudug region.
• Somali elite forces e killed several Al-Shabaab fighters including a ring leader in southern Somalia. Reports carried by the military owned radio; the fighting flared up after raided a village controlled by Al-Shabaab. Fighting took place Arabow village just 50km away from Buale town of Lower Jubba region. Among the fighters killed in the fighting is Hassan Sufyan Qorey, a commander of Al-Shabaab militants in the village.
• On November 7 reported that at least 14 Al-Shabaab fighters were killed and 15 others injured in a fierce close quarter battle in the Galgadud region, central Somalia. The joint troops launched an intelligence-led raid on the Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab’s hideouts and inflicted casualties on the militants. The army troops also recovered weapons and ammunition from the terror militants.
• Joint security assets arrested suspected operatives who took part in grenade attack raid at the residence of deputy parliamentary speaker Abdi Baaleey Hussein. The intentions surrounding the attack remain unclear. Targeted killings have in recent months been witnessed in Kismayo, Lower Juba region of Somalia including the gunning down of a remittance company head in the town last month.

Conclusion

Although Al-Shabaab is thought to be in disarray due to the onslaught by AMISOM troops and other forces, the attacks indicate that it can still coordinate attacks and produce reliable intelligence on military movements. These developments demonstrate that the group’s insurgency in southern Somalia is more resilient and flexible than earlier anticipated, having shifted into a regional force, and exporting its terror activities to neighboring Kenya.

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continues to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activity in the Horn of Africa region and warns of unchanged militant’s upsurge.  Joint CT and COIN actors not to relent on mounting concerted military pressuring on the Islamists groups. This trend is not getting any better and the curve remains persistent, if not decisively countered, could deal blows to counter-terrorism gains so far made in the region.