Somali Prime Minister Hassan Khaire seeks to establish hegemony over President Farmaajo administration, weakening the moderate leaders grip on power diplomatically and sociopolitically. Both are eyeing the Presidency in the upcoming elections in 2020, and Khaire seems desperate to win it by all means, including momentarily bringing the country’s progress to a halt. However, it’s the growing diplomatic fissure between Mogadishu and Kenya that’s critical. Both Khaire and Farmaajo are exploiting the maritime row as bait to fish votes. Somalia is East Africa’s most critical flash point and the likely consequences of this maritime row will have significant ramifications on regional security and partly, diplomacy.
Events of the past week reveal Kenya has begun a brutal and enduring geopolitical maneuver. This terminal maneuver’s potential will tear Somalia’s geopolitical posturing. However, Nairobi will not be blamed rather the consequences are largely deliberate results of the Somali governments’ actions. Hassan Khaire, a man who has a home in Nairobi is accused of orchestrating the entire charade and worse, exploiting it to gain political mileage ahead of the upcoming elections. President Farmaajo is less culpable, its an entire administration adopting the Khaire ideology, one that seeks to build nationalism and patriotism by upstaging long-time neighbors, often a recipe for disaster.
Khaire, according to intelligence reports benefited financially in the illegal sale of the disputed oil blocks in London. The buyers, Norwegian and British oil majors, paid huge kickbacks and promised to fund his Presidential campaign in 2020. Khaire’s handlers and PR machine, in usual buffoonery, claims the Prime Minster interest is national and that he is focused in rebuilding Somalia and its reputation, of course that is far from it. On his part, President Farmaajo seems unsure of these trade offs. Insiders claim Farmaajo is of the view, instead Somalia could focus on building alliances and minimizing conflicts with its neighbor, a view also held by both Mudug and Juba States administrations.
Kenya, a great regional power is re-emerging and views Mogadishu’s steps, particularly those taken by Hassan Khaire, as hostile thus creating a more and highly motivated foe. Kenya has held talks with Norwegian, British, and American government officials, expressed her displeasure besides possible consequences of a longstanding row with Somalia. The emerging purview across board is that Mogadishu should negotiate rather politicize the row. That aside, Kenya’s Foreign Ministry has reaffirmed its commitment to the ICJ process though intelligence shows, it’ll not cede the territory in the event of a worst case scenario, but is sure it has a solid case at the court.
Meanwhile, reports have emerged that Nairobi deliberately referred Somaliland as a sovereign state, or rather recognized the Horn Country as a Republic, further isolating Mogadishu. The United States, Kenya’s strongest ally reaffirmed its commitment to work with Kenya to end the row diplomatically, a move that Mogadishu is less likely to block. With Britain and Norway also signaling adoption of a diplomatic approach, Khaire faces an uphill task re-organizing and re-calibrating his political campaign strategy. Perhaps Farmaajo will be the ultimate winner in a diplomatic settlement and end of hostilities and that guarantees him re-election in 2020.
