Insight’s Summary
- The eyes of the world are now on ICJ President, Abdulqawi Ahmed Yusuf. His court will this September begin hearing the maritime border row case between Kenya and Somalia. Yusuf has been a member of the Court since 6th February 2009, served as the court Vice-President from 6th February 2015 to 5th February 2018 and President since 6th February 2018 to date. A Meteoric rise buoyed by his close ties with the court bench, one that solidifies his grip on the court and its decisions and possible covert international interference.
- Conversely, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) which he is now President, a Hague, based institution has provided a timetable for the maritime case between Somalia and Kenya, two neighbors conjoined by both the East African coastline and ethnic similarities. The court’s interest and subsequent claim of jurisdiction, in retrospect, is tendentious. The Controvertible aspects include successive dismissal of Kenyan applications citing literature and ambiguity of content, 3 audaciously bipartisan judges, partiality of the Courts President Abdulqawi Ahmed Yusuf, and most critical, geopolitics.
- Along their common border, Somalia and Kenya share similar political, economic and social conditions and that is an important geopolitical factor. National Security and Economic objectives of Kenya have significantly changed and that required demarcation and securing of the border including the maritime one. Geopolitically, strong economic, cultural or political differences are all factors that cause boundaries to become physical dividing lines. Borders are often a priority for national security and sovereignty.
Why the Spotlight…. A Quasi Covert Legal Aide?
Somalia is bullish about the case and has too much confidence in the court, maybe because the court has successively dismissed 3 applications by Nairobi or the outcome will provide FGS with sociopolitical equilibrium, thus avoid backlash that’d politically weaken it. Perhaps flashing light on the February 2017 declaration by the court can provide more insight about the basis of this posturing. Judge Ahmed Yusuf was Vice President of the court then. Could he be the glimmer of hope in the case? A Puntland Marehan, the President’s clan, Abdulqawi Ahmed Yusuf according to intelligence sources in Washington and Puntland, has Presidential ambitions and the case presents him a wonderful opportunity to turn political tides to his favor.
The confidence Mogadishu exhibits and has in ICJ is not drawn from its lawyers neither from its application nor the courts jurisdiction. It’s a typical psychological reaction when a cohort has a superb alibi. The lawyers don’t repose the confidence a client needs in a court by all means. Who is the boogeyman Mogadishu’s relying on? Is it Ahmed Yusuf? Maybe?
The dynamics of geopolitics compels countries to organize against a hegemon, in this case the hegemon is Kenya and that means Somalia is getting help both regionally and internationally to upstage Nairobi. How this plays out will shape regional geopolitical sphere, but not for long, and that’s a bad result. Of course the court will loudly denounce such claims and even issue threats to ward off speculation and eroding of its partiality.
Abdulqawi Ahmed Yusuf and his tribesmen will also loudly dispute and discredit the assessment terming them terminal credibility assaults and typical state sponsored affronts. The judge, if he has interest in the case and has political ambitions will seek trade-offs owing to the fact elections and revolutions allow a people to select new rulers. He can somehow reverse the ICJ decision at a convenient time if regional geopolitical dynamics point to weakening of Somalia.
However it is the international community that may determine the outcome of the case. The world seems to have largely accepted the reality of Kenya’s rising power an acceptance that is key to the formation of a compact between them. For decades, the world powers acted virtually in lockstep with Kenya on many major regional economic and security issues. A closer look at recent events, suggests the international community, ‘pragmatically‘, doesn’t want Kenya’s unrivaled influence to wane.
On the other hand, Judge Ahmed Yusuf of ICJ, like any other Somali has symbolically demonstrated allegiance to his motherland by his acts of compact patriotism, further shedding light on his impartiality and possible ‘covert and hands off’ interference on the case, acts probably motivated by a desire to rise to higher political office or sociopolitical martyrdom. Will the case and his position at the court hand him much needed political propulsion? Will it make him a front runner if he vies? And maybe, as the case drags or fast paces at The Hague give him much needed publicity to compete against the incumbent Farmaajo and his Prime Minister Hassan Khaire?
