The leadership brass of al-Qaeda affiliated Harakat al Shabaab al Mujahedeen held an emergency meeting in the vicinity Bulo Falay in Bay region where the group holds swaths of territory. Intelligence revealed that the meeting was held to address a number of issues that have marred the groups and seemingly causing their weakening.
In attendance were Leader Abu Ubaidah, Mahad Karate, Ibrahim Ali Aden, Ja’far Dhere and other officials of different departments in a rare meeting and the first of its kind since Ubaidah was reported to be terminally ill. The core agendas of the meeting have been revealed to include among other issue streamlining the operations and internal administration that has been ostensibly strained.
The emergency meeting came barely a week since the Kenya Army Commander Lieutenant General Walter Koipaton visited the troops fighting the insurgency in various Forward Operating Bases in Somalia. It is apparent that al Shabaab has been shaken by the visit aimed at motivating and invigorating the troops.
Al Shabaab has been experiencing a lot of internal problems that have in turn worked to the advantage of AMISOM and government troops in operations against them. Likely issues discussed in the emergency meeting include:
- Feuds within the group- the group has experienced a lot of internal disarrays especially between native and foreign fighters with the former persecuting the latter for unfounded espionage claims.
- Succession politics- it has been reported that al Shabaab’s emir Ubaidah has been terminally ill and as such different factions have been fronting candidates for the leadership position.
- AMISOM and especially KDF threat both in southern Somalia and along the Kenya-Somalia border that has inflicted major casualties on the terrorists.
- Defections and moles that have been providing SNA and allied troops that have accounted for arrested, airstrikes and kinetic operations that have weakened the group pushing them out of controlled areas.
While the repercussions of the meeting are yet to be seen, it is important to note that al Shabaab’s leadership rarely hold meetings and as such security apparatus in Somalia ought to tighten the noose on the militants and especially in the southern parts. The resurgence of the leader who has been MIA for months may be psychological warfare tactic to exaggerate the dwindling reach of al Shabaab and diminish the growing presence of IS-Somalia.
