Targets by Al-Shabaab in Kenya
June 27 | Posted by David Goldman | Intelligence News, Military Intelligence
Possibilities of Somali-based and Al-Qaeda affiliated terrorist group Al-Shabaab launching terror attacks on civilian population and military personnel have increased intelligence produced confirm.
This terror alert has been produced after a critical analysis of events and actions of the militants besides the decoding of various messages posted in ‘pro-Al-Shabaab websites (OPEN-SOURCE INTELLIGENCE SOURCES).
The actions of the militants have rapidly increased since the weekend of 23rd-24th June 2012 with both terrorist and militia activity becoming rapid and multi-pronged.
23rd June, a popular cafe in the heart of Qansah Dheere district
On 24th June, the terror attack in Kenya
Uganda arrests Pakistani’s with Al-Qaeda links entering Ugandan through a un-gazetted border point
Tuesday, unconfirmed reports of attacks on AMISOM
Warning of action against AMISOM and KDF
Coded and syllabicated statements by Al-Shabaab on their intents to strike Kenyan forces and its interests
Al-Shabaab may use the independence days of Somalia to act as a catalyst to their cause (liberating Somalia) by attacking KDF perceived as an invader (similar to colonialists).
Propaganda incentives and statements made by the militants through pro-militants blogs and websites (these statements often depict intentions/principal objectives of the militants; which they want to accomplish in few days time).
Terror Attack Alerts on Civilian Populations
Target Areas:- Mogadishu, Afgoye, Afmadow, Garissa, Nairobi, Mombasa, (other areas offering opportunity to inflict high casualities are not ruled out.
Targets:- Roadside targets, hotels, public terminals, government facilities.
Source Matrix:-2-day old threats and statements made my Al-Shabaab, terror actions by the terrorists, pattern of actions/terror events.
Terror Attack Alert to Civilian and Military Personnel in Action in Somalia
Possible attacks from Al-Shabaab militia active in Somalia will occur. KDF/SNA will be targets.
Source matrix:-2-day old Al-Shabaab statements and militia/terror actions consummate culmination of the intent to accomplish such missions.
Juba region of Somalia:-KDF/SNA bases, moving troop convoys
Inside Al-Shabaab Plans, Counter Intelligence to Preempt.
June 28 | Posted by David Goldman | Intelligence News, Military Intelligence
Al-Shabaab has not stopped to function, rather it is energized and more determined to inflict a significant blow to its aggressors,mainly Kenya which neighbors Somalia and viewed by the militants, as the catalyst that has helped speed their ouster.
Thousands of Al-Shabaab fighters have either died, seriously wounded/maimed, or vanished from their ranks and fold, inflicting serious damage to the militants militia activity capability.
In their tactical and forced retreat, Al-Shabaab is not defeated, rather provided with opportunity to rethink their strategy owing to the fact they still control much of Somalia (Central and Southern).
Al-Shabaab is now split into small units headed by either a foreign fighter with vast guerrilla or terrorist activity knowledge to facilitate success in operations or a militant with skill-set and leadership capacity to achieve desired objectives in a timely manner.
This new policy can be described as ‘Small Unit Leadership’, where trade-craft is the basis of the militants objectives.
In small unit leadership, set objectives are decisively sought after thorough planning, gathering of intelligence, timing and expeditious execution of the strategy to increase success ratio.
In the new small unit leadership plan, Al-Shabaab hopes to launch the following operations to achieve objectives
The militants will use squads which will use hand held grenades, car bombs, suicide bombers, IED’s and guns to launch attacks on targets. Such targets include restaurants, eating places, cafes (coffee & tea places), bars, churches, and public transport corridors/areas.
On civilian targets, bombing facilities as aforementioned may escalate besides tactics like kidnap being used.
Planting of improvised explosive devices (IED) on roadsides to ambush transport convoys of soldiers. In such operations, the militants will attack armed forces in patrol, or on transit/deployment/resupply.
Rocket attacks will be used by small units against military bases and convoys.
Guerrilla’s/commando units will launch attacks on military camps in Somalia at night and at convoys of patrolling troops.
The militants will opt to launch very significant attacks on their enemy, KDF, AMISOM, and Ethiopian troops any time anyhow. This is a policy that will help dent morale and strategy of these armies further giving the militants a cause.
There are factors to consider when countering these small units such as their location,time of ambush, and distance from effective weapon range to destroy them.
To lock the target and fire a salvo that can destroy their location can be an effort too late with damage already inflicted, hence, scouting is primary in the KDF and other players operations.
KDF and other AMISOM players must dispatch aerial expeditionary patrols to conduct surveillance operations to confirm safety besides destroy such enemy positions