The COVID-19 global pandemic is gradually causing disarray in African regions that have a jihadi presence among them the Horn of Africa as well as the larger Great Lakes Region. In recent months a growing presence of the ISIS affiliates in the herein mentioned regions have been making headway especially in Somalia, Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
The IS affiliates have conducted at least 10 attacks with over 21 casualties in the past fortnight a number that signifies a significant step up in operations. In Somalia, the group’s preferred mode of attack is assassinations, in Mozambique, the group ambushes and holds hostages as well as burns buildings while in DRC the group majorly relies on ambushes with machetes, guns and other crude weapons.
Events
In the past two weeks as governments announce curfews and lockdowns the terror groups; The Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP) in Mozambique and DRC and Abnaa Ul Calipha (ISS) In Somalia have resurged with several attacks.
Mozambique
- 06/04- jihadists attacked Meangalesa and Muidumbe villages killing 5 people, burned churches, looted from shops as well as took at least four hostages.
- 06/04- ISCAP militants attacked Bilibiza where they burned homes as well as held residents for a time before releasing them.
- 07/04- armed militants ambushed Muatide, Miengueluela and Ntchinga villages where they burned homes as well as held residents for a time before releasing them.
- 10/04- armed militants arrived in boats disguised as civilians at the Quirimbas archipelagos. The jihadists killed 5 people in the islands razing buildings and forcing residents to listen to propaganda messages including their agenda to establish an Islamic caliphate in the restive north.
Democratic Republic of Congo
- 07/04- Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) currently under the ISCAP banner attacked Hlingupa near Beni city killing six people.
- 14/04- ADF militants ambushed government forces killing at least three people.
Somalia
- ISS assassinated two security forces in Bakara Market in Mogadishu in an attack that left a third officer gravely wounded.
- ISS has appeared dormant in recent months as intelligence indicates that the group has been mandated by ISIS-Central to take control of ISCAP. As such ISS has been sited taking part in drills and training in Puntland where it is headquartered seemingly in preparation to take the new role of running the Horn of Africa and Great Lakes region’s operation for the global terror organization.
Insight
While governments and international partners revert their attention to the immediate crisis caused by the Coronavirus, jihadis are seemingly taking advantage of the seemingly eased pressure caused by the counterterrorism campaigns. For instance, in DRC there has been new cases of Ebola as well as a growing number of the people infected by the COVID-19 and as such ADF as well as local militias have been conducting attacks to replenish on their strained resources in preparation for future attacks on their enemies.
In Mozambique, the group appears to have stepped up its operation both in terms of frequency and location a move that can be attributed to the group’s recent statement of their key agenda in the restive northern Cabo Delgado province. The group has been attacking villages as well as islands persuading residents to accepts the establishment of an Islamic caliphate, burning churches as well as taking hostages. The jihadist movement in Mozambique especially poses the greatest threat in the region seeing as the local government refuses to acknowledge that the group is affiliated to ISIS and dismissing it as a local militia. With changes such as being consolidated under the leadership of IS-Somalia, the group is projected to extend its agenda across the neighboring countries such as Uganda and Tanzania.
In Somalia, while ISS appears to have slowed its operations especially in the south, the group’s recent assassination is a clear indicator that the group is not defeated but had only taken a tactical withdraw to strategize and come back. Notably, the resurgence of ISS in Mogadishu comes at a time when al Shabaab operations in the capital appear stalled due to an intra-fighting that has led to the expulsion and execution of key commanders by the group’s emir. The group has been taking on recruits from as far as the Middle East a worrying trend that could position the group to offer a haven for ISIS fighters feeling Iraq and Syria. As Ramadan approaches, the groups are undoubtedly looking to step up attacks and as such security apparatus ought to be on the lookout, conduct operations to limit the groups’ reach and movement that could facilitate deadly attacks during the season.
