ISIL is assembling atomized jihadist units into cohesive fighting units which would enable the Islamic State to project power deeper into Africa. One of the least stated reasons why Abubakar Shekau pledged allegiance to ISIL was to pre-empt the disintegration of Boko Haram under pressure from the regional counter-terrorism operations as well as quell dissension and ensure conformity of purpose.
The Ansaru faction wanted to break away from Boko Haram, but the dissident party were convinced by ISIL emissaries to reintegrate into Boko Haram. The reunion of the two factions will provide Boko Haram with additional resilience which will assist the terror group to weather off the current counter-insurgency operations.
ISIL presently maintains presence in over 60 nations while its network of sleeper cells cover the entire globe. In Africa, ISIL is seeking Islamic militant groups that can take down regional hegemons such as Kenya in East and Central Africa, Nigeria in West Africa; and Egypt in North Africa.
In West Africa, ISIL has Boko Haram as its affiliate while in North Africa, ISIL has Ansar Bait al-Maqdis (otherwise known as the Sinai Province) as its affiliate. Through these affiliates, ISIL has been able to spread its influence across the regions besides establishing operational bases in some of the jihadist-held territories.
In East Africa, ISIL has no official affiliate; and recent intelligence reports indicate that it is currently courting HSM, as it plans to form domestic jihadist fronts in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
ISIL expansion into Africa threatens global geopolitics besides imperiling international commerce as well as endanger global energy security. It is thus vital for national intelligence agencies to cooperate in countering terrorism.
