Islamic State Central Africa (ISCA) has issued a statement that warns South Africa against intervention in Mozambique’s crisis in Cabo Delgado. In a statement published in ISIS’ Al Naba, ISCA said that it would open the fighting front within South African’s borders should the nation intervene by sending troops and or military assistance to Mozambique.
While the insurgency is only concentrated in the northern-most province of Mozambique, there has been intelligence according to SI analysts that indicates that southern province with unrest and revolutions offer perfect conditions that can be exploited by ISCA. The southern province could offer a safe haven for terrorists in the eventuality of increased pressure by military intervention. Thus, the threat to South Africa and other neighbors of Mozambique ought not to be ignored seeing as the group appears to have capabilities that the Mozambican military appears to be unequipped to handle.
The looming threat of the expansion of ISCA to become a cross-border terror organization like its ISWAP counterpart is growing as evidenced by the continued propaganda and approval from ISIS-Central. the threat comes even as South Africa urgently engage her counterparts in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) regarding the increasing ISIS threat.
SI asserts that while the threat can be construed as ISCA flexing its capability in a psychological warfare and recruitment campaign it would be reckless for counterinsurgency parties both in Mozambique and South Africa to ignore the threat of a group. The fact that the group appears to rapidly expand and conduct more attack in CD with very little information available on its leadership or numbers and the relationship between its arm in Mozambique and DRC poses the greatest threat in the Great Lakes Region.
