Somali Extremists, Al-Shabaab Mujahideen recently has its concentrated attacks on Somali forces, their bases and AMISOM convoys in Middle and Lower Shabelle, Gedo and Bay regions of Somalia.
So far, in the month of September, Al-Shabaab has claimed nearly two dozen attacks with notable success ratios. The Al-Qaeda branch through its pro-websites and media has spread photos, infographics and videos of some of their successful raids against SNA and AMISOM.
The militant group lately has claimed attacks on Ugandan military bases and SNA forward operating bases in Somali cities of Afgoye, Barawi, Balorre, Odekli district, Jalwein and Zabid, with high casualties.
Shabaab Notable Claims
On September 2, 2019, Shabaab claimed to have stormed AMISOM’s Ugandan military base in Barawe airport in Lower Shabelle killing 3 Ugandan soldiers.
On September 6, 2019, Shabaab claimed another attack on Ugandan troops. The militants had planted an IED near Dino in Lower Shabelle. Unspecified casualties were reported.
On September 9, 2019, Shabaab claimed 4 attacks. The militant group claimed attack on Burundian army convoy near Balad town in Middle Shabelle region of Somalia. 5 casualties were reported. The militant group claimed another low-scale raid on Burundian military base in Baidoa. Baidoa is capital in the southwestern Bay region of Somalia.
On September 11, 2019, Al-Shabaab claimed three mortar shelling targeting Villa Somalia and Ethiopian Embassy in Mogadishu. Civilian casualties reported. The mortar shelling demonstrated Al-Shabaab capability to adapt and deploy new attack methods in a heavily fortified compounds and complex even on Somalia Presential palace.
On September 12, 2019, Shabaab claimed to have killed 3 SNA soldiers in a bomb explosion in Dinsoor town in Bay region of Somalia.
On September 13, 2019, Shabaab claimed an attempted attack on SNA Forward Operating Base (FOB) outside Marka town in Lower Shabelle region of Somali.
On September 14, 2019, at least five former Hirshabelle administrators were killed in an explosion by Al Shabaab militants in Balcad. The group claimed to kill three district officials a day before in Belet Haawo, Gedo, and planted a landmine in Diinsoor, Bay region (aimed to harm a district commissioner) and killed four people.
On September 14, the convoy of the Somali Prime Minister was hit by an improvised explosive outside his office in Marka town in Lower Shabelle. Although the attacking group remained unclear and no casualties were reported, such incidents led security forces to launch a sizeable operation in Middle Shabelle, arresting dozens of suspects, including approximately 50 clan leaders considered to be ‘in collaboration’ with Al-Shabaab.
On 18, 2019 Shabaab claims killing Hirshabelle State officials and 14 Burundian troops in Middle Shabelle and possible assassinations attempts on Somali MPs in Mogadishu.
On Sunday September 22, 2019 at around 5:30 am, local time, Al-Shabaab terrorists using Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIED) rammed the gate of SNA Forward Operating Base (FOB) in El Salini village of Lower Shabelle. Shabaab claims overrunning the base, besides killing 23 Somali soldiers in suicide attack and raid on base in Lower Shabelle.
Observations
- Preferred use of mortar shelling especially when targeting military bases (FOBs) and other fortified compounds.
- Though recent mortar attacks have been low-scale, they could morph into a threat when fired by experts.
- Targeted assassinations reported on Somali government officials. Attacks involves fitting of bombs on targeted individuals’ cars.
- Its notable that Al-Shabaab uses RCIED and then reinforce it with an ambush gunfire attack to maximize casualties.
- Shabaab is keen on staging IED attacks, ambushes on road majorly used by the troops, meaning the militants possibly could have combed and learnt on the troops’ routines.
- The ability of the militant group to conduct a number of attacks though low-scale attacks, the group activities remains robust in several regions. Many events claimed in (Mogadishu, Middle Shabelle, Hiran, Gedo, Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle).
Analysis
On the above sampled claims, Al-Shabaab continue to demonstrate its capability to conduct multiple direct attacks targeting both AMISOM and SNA beside conducting targeted assassinations on key figures.
That, despite a being targeted in a number of precision airstrikes from the U.S., the militant group continues to defy this pressure, an indicator of adaptation to conventional warfare strategies and a strategy of resilience as per the group’s doctrine.
Increased Al-Shabaab’s attacks suggests resurgence in Somalia and underlines the threat the militant group continues to pose in the county and beyond. Though AMISOM and allied forces in Somalia have waged military campaigns against the militant group in support of the weak SNA, the military campaigns, however, have not succeeded in completely defeating and dismantling the terror group. Neither has it significantly diminished its ability to strike.
To elaborate its successes, the group continue to keep track of its raids by publishing and spreading of infographics photos and videos of notable raids with casualties in their pro-websites and media. This a modern psychological warfare strategy aimed at demoralizing military assets fighting them in Somalia besides. The strategy is also aimed at boosting the morale for their foot soldiers besides attracting potential jihadists into their fold.
The Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia, Harakat Shabaab Mujahideen has demonstrated its capability to adapt and deploy new attack methods in Somalia. The ability to plan targeted assassinations, attacks on heavily fortified complexes and military bases and capability to implement such plans besides employ geography, time, and consistency as aspects of warfare is an indicator the militant group has morphed or changed their strategy from a military intelligence perspective.
Al-Shabaab has also suffered a series of ill-fortunes alternating between loss of territories and defections besides loss of military resources. Nonetheless, the terror group has proved itself highly resilient and adaptable to the fluid dynamics of the region, despite an effective anti-terrorism campaign carried out by AMISOM, and allied forces.
