ICC Prosecutor, Luis Moreno Ocampo shocked Kenyan’s and the international community when he accepted a possible delay in the cases of Kenyan politicians and individuals involved in 2008 political violence.
Ocampo made it clear that a delay is alright and that the ICC has no mandate to chose political leadership for Kenya besides reiterating that the suspects were just mere suspects until the judges proved them guilty.
Ocampo will retire in 2012 and has promised to visit Kenya before mid-year and introduce his successor, a Ghanaian.
Analysis ; Scenario A
Earlier this year, Strategic Intelligence offered insight on the credibility of the cases against the Kenyan’s particularly Uhuru Kenyatta and poked holes in the prosecution and the courts ability in impartiality.
In our analysis we identified over-reliance on NGO’s as source of intelligence for prosecution evidence by the office of the prosecutor besides identifying NGO’s and the KNHCR as a threat to National Security.
Strategic Intelligence also explained the role of bounded rationality in the NSIS submissions and the lack if credibility in the actions and behavior of the NSIS when dealing with state secrets and affairs and the international community
We also identified traces of Odinga and Kenya Human Rights Commission activities to the Kenyatta case with one of the senior commissioners, Hassan Omar being a principal in gathering evidence, identifying and coaching witnesses.
Mr Hassan has since then left KNHCR to join the ODM party led by Mr Odinga.
Strategic Intelligence also authenticated the British letter on the ICC cases on Kenya crediting the plan to have Uhuru and Ruto prosecuted speedily to a foreign expert strategist.
And sifting through the various intelligence reports available, identified coached witness information besides traces of coaching and forced testimonies.
Ocampo might have critically analyzed these events and evidence too and realized the lack of morality in his presentation besides denting his professional profile.
Such anomalies cannot go without being pointed out by both his employers and international community players pro-the suspects and their discomfort with his professional conduct and activities could have catastrophic ramifications including a case against him.
Ocampo may have weighed his options and found resolve by avoiding presiding over the cases and possibly destroy some of the evidence he had against them particularly from persons like Hassan Omar, Maina Kiai, and Mungiki members.
Analysis ; Scenario B
Another likely scenario is the national security aspect where trying the two would mean locking certain communities out of the leadership circles hence fuel ethnic problems before the elections or during the elections.
We identified this threat, pointing out Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto’s personalities in the political context as a threat to national security.
Current ethnic alliances with major tribes in Kenya forming very strong alliances could gang up against Odinga’s own community and lead to Rwanda-like massacre.
Ocampo may have as well weighed in this threat and found it vital and urgent to allow the political process and its temperature to weather before the cases may proceed.
Ocampo’s view is, the Kenyan case is too complex and rubbing so many people the wrong way that, he feels this might poke holes in his credibility as a professional.
Analysis ; Scenario C
President Kibaki’s great influence in the African Union and his reading of folly in the intentions of the ICC spelled doom for the ICC.
African Union under Kibaki’s patronage has developed cold feet and an angry feeling towards the ICC.
The death of Gaddafi and the sentencing of Lubanga, and prosecution of Charles Taylor shows too much focus on African issues with less focus on Wests atrocities in the Afghanistan, Iraqi and other areas.
ICC fears a mass walkout by the African Union leaving it weak and without a case to take care of further destabilizing the courts credibility and value to the United Nations.
The West must have advised the ICC to go very slowly on the Kenyan case to avoid the backlash from African countries which is very likely in the coming months.
It is evident the prosecutor has given up on the case